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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
I mean why are we worrying about temps off an unreliable model 3-4 days out . it's kinda obvious the gfs is on its own at the model . Eric brought up a good point about the gfs being too progressive.

God I need some tequila . gonna be along 4 days  

better get the wife some wine incase we are snowed in

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I'll be breaking out the Tullamore Dew before the week is over!!
 
2m temps don't look too horrible to me on the GFS. There's one itty bitty problem though that could cause issues with sticking (if that's the scenario we get in the end), it's 70+ degrees in a lot of those areas today and our storm is getting into the period in which its just a few days away.
 
Deltadog03 said:
Shawn said:
Well. Canadian is a swing and miss for CAE.  We do see some Wintry weather, but its mainly to our North.
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I honestly don't buy that. It's the warmest model of them all. I would think Temps should support snow or wintry precip down our way.
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I'm selfish.  I'm all in for snow your way and over to this way.  I'll ring mother nature's neck to make it happen!
 
Folks, go edit your profile and put in your location. Helps out a lot with the discussion to know where people are.
 
Claycochaser said:
Well, lookie here...found you guys! In the nick of time it appears.
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Haha omgd. just in time for you to be in the gfs bullseye 3 days out

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Canadian
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Dsaur said:
Bham 99 said:
I am in Birmingham currently, and have lived in North Georgia also. I would say that we are due for a more southerly track, it has not happened in a while from what I remember over the past few years...
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Agreed.  Since I've been south of Atl, after living in Atl until the early 80's, I've seen deeper snow than I ever saw in Atl.  Sometimes things line up right and we are closer to the heavy rains near the furnace, but not so close as to be warm nosed to death.  Atl gets it more often, but I get deeper amounts when I get a good path thru here.  T
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Where are you Dsaur? I am from Gainesville. I do miss the CAD setups, but I do remember times when the CAD caused the moisture to fall apart before it even got to Gainesville. I guess every location has pros and cons
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
2m temps don't look too horrible to me on the GFS. There's one itty bitty problem though that could cause issues with sticking (if that's the scenario we get in the end), it's 70+ degrees in a lot of those areas today and our storm is getting into the period in which its just a few days away.
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The cold air actually start's settling in before the low...but I see what your saying... ground temps will be an issue
 
Snowfan said:
The Canadian was the quickiest.
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yes it is, but even the slower gfs and euro and very quick with the system . but he'll I don't care . I can build a snowman with mini5 and throw snowballs at the wife I'm good

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Yes, it's looking like the system will be a quick mover, but good convection which means high snowfall rates. Plus the Appalachian Mountains produce more lift, so there will be some higher snowfall amounts there as usual. But not all the time because sometimes mountains can shear moisture.
 
I really like the UK look. And I think it has been very consistent with this storm.
 
cmc has nasty ice in central alabama below birmingham towards Montgomery and back into central miss

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Brick Tamland said:
I really like the UK look. And I think it has been very consistent with this storm.
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Yeap sticking to its guns for sure. But just seems too early to call for a phase.


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Spann sure has changed his tune from yesterday: [font=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Watching new model data coming in this morning. Confidence is high in some type of wintry precipitation (mostly snow or sleet) across the northern half of Alabama late Friday, Friday night, and early Saturday with potential for travel impact. [/font]
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It's like role reversal with the GFS and Euro, so today the GFS moved south while the Euro (0z) moved north. Interested to see what the Euro will show at 12z.
 
The 12Z UKMET would be a pretty perfect track for the ATL-AHN corridor assuming it is cold enough, especially if there's CAD. I can't tell if there'd be much CAD on the 12Z UKMET. I'd love to see an 84 hour map. Does the UKMET have 84 hour maps?
 
Stormlover said:
Spann sure has changed his tune from yesterday
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HAHA! I would change my tone to if the last time i swore it wouldnt snow I ended up abandoning my vehicle and walking two miles up hill.
 
Bham 99 said:
Dsaur said:
Bham 99 said:
I am in Birmingham currently, and have lived in North Georgia also. I would say that we are due for a more southerly track, it has not happened in a while from what I remember over the past few years...
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Agreed.  Since I've been south of Atl, after living in Atl until the early 80's, I've seen deeper snow than I ever saw in Atl.  Sometimes things line up right and we are closer to the heavy rains near the furnace, but not so close as to be warm nosed to death.  Atl gets it more often, but I get deeper amounts when I get a good path thru here.  T
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Where are you Dsaur? I am from Gainesville. I do miss the CAD setups, but I do remember times when the CAD caused the moisture to fall apart before it even got to Gainesville. I guess every location has pros and cons
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South of the Atl RaceWay by 10 miles.  There is a band across Hampton where if there is a flake in the sky it will fall there, but they also get the tornadoes up there too.  Saw my biggest hail in Hampton..baseball...it's like a weather twilight zone, lol.  So I'm glad to be south of there, but if you get down to Barnesville, your chances dry up.  There are weather zones, like lay lines, that are magnets for crazy weather, and being near, but not in one, sets you up nicely, lol.
  A good cad will go right thu here, and on into Ala, so I get some good storms from cad, but the absolute best is a Fla crossing gom low.  You can get rain bands that produce heavy sleet and snow, right thru here if things line up like Goofy is showing...but it's still a ways off.  It's most impressive though how long the Gfs has been onto this storm.  If it rides it into reality, then it will be King Goofy!!  Maybe even Nurse Yes!
  Tony
 
Storm5 said:
cmc has nasty ice in central alabama below birmingham towards Montgomery and back into central miss

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Is there a ice map from CMC
 
Stormlover said:
Spann sure has changed his tune from yesterday: [font=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Watching new model data coming in this morning. Confidence is high in some type of wintry precipitation (mostly snow or sleet) across the northern half of Alabama late Friday, Friday night, and early Saturday with potential for travel impact. [/font]
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yep ,now he is posting upper air soundings

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Storm5 said:
cmc has nasty ice in central alabama below birmingham towards Montgomery and back into central miss

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Yes it does, l'm in the sweet spot for ice. l will take the GFS please
 
CobraMedic said:
Vols1 said:
Is there any chance of this thing going north over the next 24 or 48 hours?
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I would put money on it.
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I wouldn't want a north trend just yet or it will be to north at the end. North trends are good at nowcasting moment when the low actually starts lifting up along the coast.
 
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