Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Weatherlover92]

Down further closer to ATL and south would be ZR, north of ATL would be IP and snow.

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The model extraction data for the 6z GFS shows snow/sleet for ATL (KATL which is the airport), no freezing rain. 850s are between 0 to -2°C. 0.87 is sleet and 0.36 is snow.

Station ID: KATL Lat:  33.64 Long:  84.42                                                       
GFS Model Run:  6Z  2JAN 2017 Clouds Bases and Tops are now agl
  HR Valid    2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle    High    Max    Min  Sfc
                Deg F  Deg F  deg      kt    in.  in.    Thk    GPH  Tmp  Tmp    mb    %  TEXT  Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis
  0 01/02 06Z  51    50      93      5    0.00  0.00    561    578  12.1 -12.0 1020.2  0          CLR      CLR      CLR    ****  ****  1.1
  6 01/02 12Z  55    55    113      5    0.30  0.04    560    578  11.7 -14.0 1020.8 100 -TSRA 014BKN057 116OVC230 230OVC395  54    51  0.0
  12 01/02 18Z  59    59    127      5    0.17  0.11    560    578  11.6 -14.2 1020.7 100 -TSRA 017BKN052 149BKN223 229OVC380  59    55  0.5
  18 01/03 00Z  60    60    132      7    0.14  0.12    561    577  11.6 -14.5 1018.2 100 -TSRA 003BKN038 172SCT207 249OVC406  61    59  0.5
  24 01/03 06Z  59    58    156      6    0.33  0.03    561    574  11.4 -14.3 1015.1 100 -TSRA 010BKN049 116BKN208 242OVC421  62    58  0.5
  30 01/03 12Z  61    61    224      6    0.31  0.26    563    572  11.2 -11.1 1011.5  94 -TSRA 004BKN050 134FEW225 229SCT361  61    59  0.5
  36 01/03 18Z  65    62    259      9    0.02  0.01    563    572  10.7 -13.2 1010.6  96 -RA  010BKN035 192FEW229 296BKN389  65    61  2.5
  42 01/04 00Z  59    58    270      7    0.01  0.00    561    570    9.5 -12.1 1010.6 100 -RA  016BKN041    FEW    298BKN411  66    59  0.5
  48 01/04 06Z  57    56    287      6    0.00  0.00    559    568    6.4 -11.4 1010.6  95 -RA  016BKN040    CLR    270BKN418  59    57  0.5
  54 01/04 12Z  53    52    310      6    0.00  0.00    555    565    5.6 -13.3 1011.6  92 -RA  020BKN037    CLR    300BKN398  57    53  0.5
  60 01/04 18Z  57    47    322      9    0.00  0.00    552    562    3.7 -16.4 1012.4  79      012SCT022 207FEW226 259BKN363  57    52 20.0
  66 01/05 00Z  46    41    327      8    0.00  0.00    547    559    4.9 -18.6 1014.3  98 -RA  025SCT036 173BKN224 224BKN280  57    46  6.3
  72 01/05 06Z  41    34    333      7    0.00  0.00    544    556    4.2 -20.6 1015.6 100          CLR    135OVC222 222BKN262  46    41 20.0
  78 01/05 12Z  35    30    332      5    0.00  0.00    543    556    2.6 -20.2 1016.2  53          CLR    132BKN205 222FEW273  41    35 14.9
  84 01/05 18Z  46    34    305      5    0.00  0.00    543    555    0.6 -20.5 1015.4  59      036FEW048 201FEW219 228BKN324  47    34 20.0
  90 01/06 00Z  36    28    317      8    0.00  0.00    538    552  -2.7 -21.4 1017.0  84      067FEW085 141BKN221 222BKN289  47    36 20.0
  96 01/06 06Z  28    22    324      10    0.00  0.00    536    552  -6.4 -22.2 1020.8  30      041FEW062 144SCT214    CLR      36    28 15.6
102 01/06 12Z  23      9    335      6    0.00  0.00    537    557  -3.6 -20.1 1024.7  0          CLR      CLR      CLR      27    23 20.0
108 01/06 18Z  38      3      25      5    0.00  0.00    541    561  -0.9 -18.7 1024.4  6          CLR      CLR      FEW      39    23 20.0
114 01/07 00Z  35    15    113      4    0.00  0.00    543    564  -1.0 -17.6 1025.5  81          CLR    134BKN224 234BKN357  41    35 20.0
120 01/07 06Z  31    18    107      7    0.00  0.00    544    564  -1.2 -17.3 1026.4  93      088SCT105 154FEW180 232BKN372  36    31 20.0
126 01/07 12Z  26    25      78      12    0.25  0.00    545    563  -0.2 -16.5 1024.6 100 -SN  058BKN100 120BKN204 231OVC375  32    26  0.5
132 01/07 18Z  28    28      60      8    0.87  0.00    544    561    0.7 -17.2 1021.9 100 PL    012OVC076 114OVC215 237BKN376  30    25  0.0
138 01/08 00Z  29    29    357      6    0.11  0.00    537    556  -2.3 -18.0 1024.3  97 -SN  022BKN095 109SCT139    CLR      30    28  0.0

http://68.226.77.253/text/offhrGFSxExtract/GFS_KATL.txt

 

[Wulfer]

Yea, I'm up and I was wondering what our estimated timing (the start of the event) was for the area of Chattanooga Tn.

 

[packfan98]

Thanks for the EPS map Supershow!  Doesn't look that great to me...unless you are in the Mid-Atlantic...

 

[GaWx]

Ice map

I totally disagree with Pivotal Weather calling this ZR in the city of Atlanta and even well south of the city. After a period of snow in the city and even a fair bit south, that is sleet and not ZR. And a lot of it! This is easily as modeled the biggest sleetstorm for the city and well southward since at least 1988. Pivotal's ZR/IP locations are screwed up. Do they even put out a sleet map?

Not only do 850's well south of ATL at FFC never rise above +2C (sleet territory per history), the 925's never rise above 28F!! There's no way that could be ZR! This would be total heaven for Tony!!

 

[Parker]

I feel like we may even get an even bigger run at some point today. I'm mostly wishcasting about it but the EPS mean for bham is right around an inch. I'd be tickled to death with 1-3 inch event, but would love to see a big dog. Down in our area you can't complain about totals. I'd just like to see everything covered real nice and have things shut down for about a day.

 

[Wulfer]

Weatherlover, do you have that data for the CHA airport?

 

[SimeonNC]

Does anyone have access to the GEFS/EPS probability maps?

 

[Weatherlover92]

Weatherlover, do you have that data for the CHA airport?

Here you go! The link to the website is posted below as well.
Main site
http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

Link to 6z GFS model extraction data
http://68.226.77.253/text/offhrGFSxExtract/GFS_KCHA.txt

Station ID: KCHA Lat:  35.03 Long:  85.19                                                       
GFS Model Run:  6Z  2JAN 2017 Clouds Bases and Tops are now agl
  HR Valid    2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle    High    Max    Min  Sfc
                Deg F  Deg F  deg      kt    in.  in.    Thk    GPH  Tmp  Tmp    mb    %  TEXT  Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis
  0 01/02 06Z  51    50    177      5    0.00  0.00    559    575  10.9 -13.1 1019.2  0          CLR      CLR      CLR    ****  ****  0.9
  6 01/02 12Z  51    51    148      3    0.08  0.04    558    575  10.6 -15.1 1020.0 100 -TSRA 012BKN057 163BKN231 231OVC406  51    50  0.5
  12 01/02 18Z  59    58    158      4    0.01  0.00    559    576  10.0 -15.9 1019.8 100 -RA  012OVC043 211FEW231 241OVC400  59    51  0.5
  18 01/03 00Z  57    57    132      5    0.04  0.02    561    574  11.7 -14.7 1016.3 100 -RA  012BKN057    FEW    295BKN392  60    57  0.5
  24 01/03 06Z  60    59    173      9    0.80  0.14    560    571  10.8 -13.9 1013.2 100 -TSRA 020BKN097 131BKN231 233OVC413  61    57  0.5
  30 01/03 12Z  59    58    188      5    0.22  0.16    561    569  10.0 -11.7 1010.2  99 -TSRA 013OVC068 182SCT230 231SCT356  60    58  0.0
  36 01/03 18Z  61    60    253      4    0.01  0.00    560    568    9.0 -14.8 1010.0 100 -RA  017OVC054 199FEW223 295BKN366  61    59  0.5
  42 01/04 00Z  56    56    282      4    0.04  0.03    557    565    8.7 -13.9 1010.4  65 -TSRA 029FEW045    CLR    309BKN366  64    56  0.5
  48 01/04 06Z  54    53    305      3    0.05  0.05    554    563    6.1 -13.8 1010.9  98 -TSRA 027BKN057    CLR    289BKN381  57    54  0.5
  54 01/04 12Z  48    47    341      6    0.01  0.01    550    561    3.0 -16.3 1012.9  75 -RA  040BKN071    CLR    320SCT375  54    47  0.5
  60 01/04 18Z  49    43    341      8    0.00  0.00    546    558    0.0 -19.6 1015.5  64 -RA  027SCT042 195FEW226 247SCT340  50    45  5.1
  66 01/05 00Z  39    35    358      6    0.00  0.00    541    555    0.0 -20.8 1017.6  92 -RA  023SCT041 161BKN225 225BKN274  49    39  4.1
  72 01/05 06Z  32    29      5      5    0.00  0.00    539    553  -0.5 -21.3 1018.7  82      006FEW017 166SCT223 223BKN282  39    32  5.5
  78 01/05 12Z  30    26      3      6    0.00  0.00    537    552  -0.9 -21.6 1019.2  39      087FEW103 112FEW132 224FEW272  32    29  6.6
  84 01/05 18Z  35    23      5      7    0.00  0.00    534    549  -5.1 -21.2 1018.9  96      094SCT110 137BKN188 224BKN341  36    30 20.0
  90 01/06 00Z  30    24    341      6    0.01  0.00    530    546  -8.7 -24.2 1020.0 100 -SN  050BKN080 133OVC221 221OVC281  35    30  7.4
  96 01/06 06Z  23    14    355      5    0.00  0.00    526    544  -13.0 -24.0 1023.6  52      023FEW035 167SCT209 220FEW239  30    23 20.0
102 01/06 12Z  21      9      12      4    0.00  0.00    530    551  -9.5 -22.0 1026.3  0          CLR      CLR      CLR      23    21 20.0
108 01/06 18Z  33      4      41      5    0.00  0.00    536    556  -4.6 -20.0 1025.6  15          CLR      FEW    307FEW340  33    21 20.0
114 01/07 00Z  31    11      34      5    0.00  0.00    539    559  -3.3 -18.1 1025.6  91      093FEW111 117BKN219 244BKN352  35    31 20.0
120 01/07 06Z  33    17    168      2    0.00  0.00    538    559  -5.9 -18.8 1026.5 100      084BKN111 135OVC222 225OVC363  33    31 20.0
126 01/07 12Z  28    27      79      4    0.28  0.00    539    558  -3.8 -18.1 1024.9 100 -SN  037BKN105 110OVC224 230OVC342  33    28  0.0
132 01/07 18Z  30    29      14      9    0.27  0.00    535    555  -4.2 -21.6 1024.3 100 -SN  005BKN104 110BKN197 276BKN364  30    28  0.5
138 01/08 00Z  31    30      12      11    0.05  0.00    532    554  -6.9 -23.5 1027.5 100 -SN  013OVC065 112BKN168    CLR      32    30  0.5
144 01/08 06Z  22    21      9      9    0.00  0.00    532    557  -5.6 -25.1 1031.6  88 -SN  016BKN037    CLR      CLR      31    22  0.5

 

[SnowHusky]

I haven't really been focusing on the ptype that much or the 850 temps. I've been focusing on the track of low, placement of moisture on each of the models, and thickness values. I'll start looking at the 850 temps in more detail on later model runs. We'll be getting into that window we're we can start to talk about details of this system.

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[ATLwxfan]

Wow, still no update from the NWS out of Peachtree City, GA. They've should've updated over night. There is model agreement with past GFS model runs and with Euro and CMC. We are 5 days away from the event, it's more and more likely that there will be significant winter weather across the south within 5 days.

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They might be anticipating the northwest trend.  If blocking weakens its rain for us.  Unfortunately it's a real possibility.


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[Wulfer]

Thanks Weatherlover, I'm trying to fully understand this data so, this helps.  Current data temps clearly support snow in our area.

 

[SD]

If this cuts north SD will be a sad panda

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[Metwannabe]

Well the 06z oh my.... text data not only brings a foot of snow here but once temps go below freezing Thursday night they don't go back above freezing until 1/11 over a 108 hours below freezing with 2 nights of single digits... yeah right. 

 

[SD]

Well the 06z oh my.... text data not only brings a foot of snow here but once temps go below freezing Thursday night they don't go back above freezing until 1/11 over a 108 hours below freezing with 2 nights of single digits... yeah right.

Lol reminds me of the 2000 storm

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[SnowHusky]

[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6837#msg6837 date=1483358868]
Wow, still no update from the NWS out of Peachtree City, GA. They've should've updated over night. There is model agreement with past GFS model runs and with Euro and CMC. We are 5 days away from the event, it's more and more likely that there will be significant winter weather across the south within 5 days.

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They might be anticipating the northwest trend.  If blocking weakens its rain for us.  Unfortunately it's a real possibility.


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[/quote]
True, it is a possibility. The 06z GFS agrees with some past runs, showing that the low will stay along the Gulf. The low should not go on a NW track IMO.

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[Weatherlover92]

[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6837#msg6837 date=1483358868]
Wow, still no update from the NWS out of Peachtree City, GA. They've should've updated over night. There is model agreement with past GFS model runs and with Euro and CMC. We are 5 days away from the event, it's more and more likely that there will be significant winter weather across the south within 5 days.

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They might be anticipating the northwest trend.  If blocking weakens its rain for us.  Unfortunately it's a real possibility.


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[/quote]

I remember in either January or February 2016 FFC went into great details via AFD on a winter storm 5-6 days out that never materialized into anything but a cold rain. They even went as far as to put snow likely in the forecast grids. So if they can do that then, they certainly can do the same now and discuss the storm regardless of a NW trend or not. We'll likely hear something after the 12z model suite though.

 

[Metwannabe]

[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg6863#msg6863 date=1483363497]
Well the 06z oh my.... text data not only brings a foot of snow here but once temps go below freezing Thursday night they don't go back above freezing until 1/11 over a 108 hours below freezing with 2 nights of single digits... yeah right.

Lol reminds me of the 2000 storm

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[/quote]
Now now let's not go there....haha

Honestly though reminds me of some winters in late 70's early 80's, I'd love to experience it again in my lifetime

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[accu35]

Anyone has a gefs map

 

[Weatherlover92]

Something else I noticed from the 6z GFS is the 2m temps are in the mid to upper 20s throughout the event (26-29°F). The last time I can remember snow/sleet falling while in the 20s was during Snowjam 2014 and January 9-10, 2011 when temps fell from 34 to around 26-27 during that storm.

00z GFS Para is a Miller B scenario so there's wintry precip in N. GA to start then it changes over to all rain, but it smacks the MA and the NE region hard as if that's a surprise. lol

 

[Metwannabe]

GEFS mean

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