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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

going to build a boat for all the possible rain, and hope and pray I have to put runners on it to turn it into a sled lol. seems like either storms along the gulf rob our moisture or we get waa to turn it to rain lol. I remember a couple years ago we started as snow and got about 1" before the changeover to rain and 30 minutes north got 6". Growing up in the north experiencing big snowstorms, I get excited over any chance we get in the south. Watching and following along, yall are awesome with the explanations of the model runs and what needs to happen for things to work out.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6888#msg6888 date=1483366826]
[quote author=DadOfJax link=topic=80.msg6886#msg6886 date=1483366540]
Im preparing for tragedy! A perfect look 5 days out is NOT a good thing 99% of the time.
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No not necessarily, we've seen this look before on past GFS runs. So, some consistency is there.

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[/quote]
there is no consistency at all. Hopefully we gain some over the next 48 hours

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[/quote]
I've seen more suppression looks and the low staying along the Gulf coast more than the low going NW. There is not going to be consistency on every run in the mid-range. Yes, I agree, we should start to see really good consistency within 48 hrs.

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Storm5 link said:
I've been off work for two weeks. Looks like I'll physically be back at work tomorrow but it's clear this will be my 3rd week in a row where nothing gets accomplished

#zeroproduction

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Off of work for 2 weeks?! Lucky for you, I know it sucks going back. (No, I wasn't being sarcastic, I know the way people read things in text can sound sarcastic)

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Should be an interesting set of 12z runs all of the models kicked it out overnight but they all differed with how much shearing of the wave takes place and how much if any potential northern stream interaction there may be.  It looks like we could handle a more consolidated stronger wave given the northern stream over the lakes. My fear is we get a phase and this hooks left. The 6z gfs was about as perfect as you can get so if you want a perfect solution to compare to that's it

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GaWx link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg6829#msg6829 date=1483356069]
Ice map
zr_acc.us_se.png
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I totally disagree with Pivotal Weather calling this ZR in the city of Atlanta and even well south of the city. After a period of snow in the city and even a fair bit south, that is sleet and not ZR. And a lot of it! This is easily as modeled the biggest sleetstorm for the city and well southward since at least 1988. Pivotal's ZR/IP locations are screwed up. Do they even put out a sleet map?

Not only do 850's well south of ATL at FFC never rise above +2C (sleet territory per history), the 925's never rise above 28F!! There's no way that could be ZR! This would be total heaven for Tony!!
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Well that would be an ice rink around here if that verified. And I agreed a lot sleet if 925 that cold
 
SD link said:
Should be an interesting set of 12z runs all of the models kicked it out overnight but they all differed with how much shearing of the wave takes place and how much if any potential northern stream interaction there may be.  It looks like we could handle a more consolidated stronger wave given the northern stream over the lakes. My fear is we get a phase and this hooks left. The 6z gfs was about as perfect as you can get so if you want a perfect solution to compare to that's it

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Yep gonna get interesting here shortly....  not sure if it's been posted but the 06z para was almost identical to the op gfs so all in all nothing but good trends to start the day.  Now we wait for Lucy to pull the ball
 
SD link said:
Should be an interesting set of 12z runs all of the models kicked it out overnight but they all differed with how much shearing of the wave takes place and how much if any potential northern stream interaction there may be.  It looks like we could handle a more consolidated stronger wave given the northern stream over the lakes. My fear is we get a phase and this hooks left. The 6z gfs was about as perfect as you can get so if you want a perfect solution to compare to that's it

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sounds like my golf game

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6908#msg6908 date=1483369029]
Should be an interesting set of 12z runs all of the models kicked it out overnight but they all differed with how much shearing of the wave takes place and how much if any potential northern stream interaction there may be.  It looks like we could handle a more consolidated stronger wave given the northern stream over the lakes. My fear is we get a phase and this hooks left. The 6z gfs was about as perfect as you can get so if you want a perfect solution to compare to that's it

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Yep gonna get interesting here shortly....  not sure if it's been posted but the 06z para was almost identical to the op gfs so all in all nothing but good trends to start the day.  Now we wait for Lucy to pull the ball
[/quote]
I am too but it's possible we see the cmc/euro trend better. Should be a fun day
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6908#msg6908 date=1483369029]
Should be an interesting set of 12z runs all of the models kicked it out overnight but they all differed with how much shearing of the wave takes place and how much if any potential northern stream interaction there may be.  It looks like we could handle a more consolidated stronger wave given the northern stream over the lakes. My fear is we get a phase and this hooks left. The 6z gfs was about as perfect as you can get so if you want a perfect solution to compare to that's it

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sounds like my golf game

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[/quote]
Lol my problem is suppression and pushing right

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6908#msg6908 date=1483369029]
Should be an interesting set of 12z runs all of the models kicked it out overnight but they all differed with how much shearing of the wave takes place and how much if any potential northern stream interaction there may be.  It looks like we could handle a more consolidated stronger wave given the northern stream over the lakes. My fear is we get a phase and this hooks left. The 6z gfs was about as perfect as you can get so if you want a perfect solution to compare to that's it

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sounds like my golf game

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[/quote]
lol...sounds like we're in for some excitement finally

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SD link said:
Should be an interesting set of 12z runs all of the models kicked it out overnight but they all differed with how much shearing of the wave takes place and how much if any potential northern stream interaction there may be.  It looks like we could handle a more consolidated stronger wave given the northern stream over the lakes. My fear is we get a phase and this hooks left. The 6z gfs was about as perfect as you can get so if you want a perfect solution to compare to that's it

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Click to expand...
I wouldn't be surprised to see a stronger low, those highs to the NW of the low will be pressing down on the low causing strong pressure gradient, intensifying low. The high to the NE would be pressing down on the low as well.

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Just starting to get to the Euros wheelhouse (if it has one anymore)...gonna go out on a limb and guess somewhere between 06z GFS path and 95 special.

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SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg6911#msg6911 date=1483369619]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6908#msg6908 date=1483369029]
Should be an interesting set of 12z runs all of the models kicked it out overnight but they all differed with how much shearing of the wave takes place and how much if any potential northern stream interaction there may be.  It looks like we could handle a more consolidated stronger wave given the northern stream over the lakes. My fear is we get a phase and this hooks left. The 6z gfs was about as perfect as you can get so if you want a perfect solution to compare to that's it

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yep gonna get interesting here shortly....  not sure if it's been posted but the 06z para was almost identical to the op gfs so all in all nothing but good trends to start the day.  Now we wait for Lucy to pull the ball
[/quote]
I am too but it's possible we see the cmc/euro trend better. Should be a fun day
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6908#msg6908 date=1483369029]
Should be an interesting set of 12z runs all of the models kicked it out overnight but they all differed with how much shearing of the wave takes place and how much if any potential northern stream interaction there may be.  It looks like we could handle a more consolidated stronger wave given the northern stream over the lakes. My fear is we get a phase and this hooks left. The 6z gfs was about as perfect as you can get so if you want a perfect solution to compare to that's it

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Click to expand...
sounds like my golf game

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[/quote]
Lol my problem is suppression and pushing right

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[/quote]
Love to see model agreement but Lucy lurks...


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Where is Shawn? If he starts posting about Columbia, then and only then do I get excited.
 
FLO link said:
Where is Shawn? If he starts posting about Columbia, then and only then do I get excited.
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Columbia is in the middle of it for now...


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I like it when ARCC gets involved. I know that when ARCC and Bing start posting then it's getting real. Don't think bing has found us yet.
 
If the Northern stream interacts it may try to cut up the Apps

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