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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

0Z vs 12z
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Storm5 said:
that was a much warmer run lol

euro , snow in Tenn and extreme northern alabama

cmc a hit for most

gfs way south

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HAHA! Pick your favorite model and ride it off the cliff of doom...LOL!


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The euro is the reason why I haven't bought into the +2" for I20 area...the cold air just isn't there...for a number of reasons
 
RichardJacks said:
The euro is the reason why I haven't bought into the +2" for I20 area...the cold air just isn't there...for a number of reasons
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yep the high was way too slow on this run

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I think with all other models on board, Euro should start improve by tonight
 
RichardJacks said:
I would say the Euro is the least consistent.
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Feel like it's throwing darts so it can say it eventually got it right.
 
RichardJacks said:
The euro is the reason why I haven't bought into the +2" for I20 area...the cold air just isn't there...for a number of reasons
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Earlier you said....

RichardJacks said:
I am thinking 2" average for B'ham..not really sure where the sweet spot will be, I could see a little south of town, but also a little north of town due to higher ratios, perhaps right over Bham metro.  But for now, I think 2" is a good average number.
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Sooooo....which is it?
 
Slow bias - Euro
Phase happy progressive - GFS

Reveresed rolls still. Though we are slowly but surely seeing more stream interaction on american guidance. hm

I knew it was a bad sign when cae put snow in the actual forecast this far out.
 
So while the GFS/UKMET/CMC shows a Southern snowstorm, the Euro NOW shows a cold rain event. I STILL think that the Southern snowstorm will happen.
 
Something tells me the Euro might end up being wrong again, there have been people saying all along that the Euro hasn't been as good as it normally is this winter. The Euro is in one direction and pretty much everything else is in a different one at 12z.

But the problem with this system possibly phasing with a NS disturbance over the great lakes is very real and a problem...
 
Euro just cut the total in half from the previous run. Seems like it is throwing darts hoping something will stick.
 
i'd watch 500mb vort maps from the nam/gfs and see if they keep trending to the euro. bout' all we can do.
 
I'm throwing my chips all in on a GFS/CMC blend. The Euro has no support, its by itself

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Dr. No strikes again.

My biggest concern is I wonder if the Euro has been able to sample the NW better and came up with this solutions or if the Doc is just drunk again.
 
Storm5 said:
well we all ride the ukie then ....

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Thats the only way to spin it now! LOL! Honestly, while I was excited about the possibility, it never was too promising without the Euro on board. Not completely ready to say "next", but we are dang close!
 
Storm5 said:
Snowfan said:
The Euro is on it's own now.
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not really , the gfs has been trending that way for the last few runs

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But the GFS STILL shows snow in the southeast, other than the Drunk Doc.
 
Snowfan said:
Storm5 said:
Snowfan said:
The Euro is on it's own now.
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not really , the gfs has been trending that way for the last few runs

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But the GFS STILL shows snow in the southeast, other than the Drunk Doc.
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right but it keeps trending towards a much weaker solution. it's not showing the stupid amped runs anymore.

I'm not saying the euro is wrong , I'm just saying there is other guidance that is trending that way

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