CMC Hits on friday evening...
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Supershow said:Canadian says a little more North
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That could be right, but I think it's Temps are off. Should be further south
T
Thundersnow89
Guest
Thank you Canada!!
richardjacks
Meteorologist
Given the "flat" look on the sw until it reaches the GOM, I expect it will trend northward a bit. Got to love the look of the moisture already spreading into Texas well before the sw arrives...precip amounts prob. underdone a bit.
Nam0806
Member
Ghicks said:
Too early to say that. However, would like to see the proverbial northwest trend start for our areas in the next 24 hours.
accu35
Member
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I agree Chris, temps should be cold enough to support snow further south.Deltadog03 said:Supershow said:Canadian says a little more North
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That could be right, but I think it's Temps are off. Should be further south
Storm5
Member
cmc is faster vs the gfs. whatever happens it's gonna be a fast moving system. remember last week when the euro was giving us a 36 hour overrunning event .......
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I am in Birmingham currently, and have lived in North Georgia also. I would say that we are due for a more southerly track, it has not happened in a while from what I remember over the past few years...
whatalife
Moderator
Deltadog03 said:Supershow said:Canadian says a little more North
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That could be right, but I think it's Temps are off. Should be further south
I agree. I like the track and the temps appear to be off...
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If it's gonna be fast then it must be some heavy snow
Flo
Member
Storm5 said:
Yea I hope it comes through during the day Saturday. Friday night and we will miss it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's what I'm talking about. That ULL over great lakes starts to dig considerably further southwestward than the previous run and phases with this once it gets to GA. Although this run may miss wide right (GFS progressive bias may be partially to blame) it highlights the fact there's definitely a risk of a huge coastal Miller A bomb off the Carolinas and VA... If we see the same trend with this feature that we observed with the first northern stream disturbance that's going to shear this out a little over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies in the next day or so (w/ NS disturbance trending deeper, further SW), could get mighty interesting to say the least in the Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic
GaWx said:
Thanks for the shout-out, Larry! I would love to see that scenario play out down this way, but I'm not sure if the suppressed track will hold. Sounds like Chris is still expecting the inevitable NW shift which would likely leave us with rain and 33! Would love to hear your thoughts for the central GA area.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Canadian looks good for here.
This 12Z GFS track would be an unusually far south track in the GOM and crossing central FL but far from unheard of. Examples: 2/25/1914, 2/9-10/1973, and 1/2-3/2002, all of which gave MCN sig wintry wx including their top two snowfalls on record and gave a lot of wintry wx to many areas of the deep south. Atlanta got a good snow from 2/1914 and 1/2002 but missed 2/1973. With a central FL crossing, ATL sometimes gets hit nicely and sometimes is too far north.
Storm5
Member
not me I want it overnight to maximize cooling. it will be there in the am when you wake up.FLO said:
but who the hell would sleep with a wite storm ongoing outside. not me, I'll sleep Sunday when we shoot into the mid 30s
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Canadian phases the second northern stream influx with our shortwave
Yeah CMC starts to bomb off GA coastWebberweather53 said:Here's what I'm talking about. That ULL over great lakes starts to dig considerably further southwestward than the previous run and phases with this once it gets to GA. Although this run may miss wide right (GFS progressive bias may be partially to blame) it highlights the fact there's definitely a risk of a huge coastal Miller A bomb off the Carolinas and VA... If we see the same trend with this feature that we observed with the first northern stream disturbance that's going to shear this out a little over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies in the next day or so (w/ NS disturbance trending deeper, further SW), could get mighty interesting to say the least in the Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
UK looks like a good hit here, too.
Flo
Member
This will probably happen screwing CAE as usual.Brick Tamland said:Canadian looks good for here.
whatalife
Moderator
Shawn said:
Temps are off IMO
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H
HartselleWeather
Guest
Brick Tamland said:Canadian looks good for here.
Also on the north side of the precip it will be a higher snow ratio considering the cold attic air.
Also, if this starts to phase sooner, wouldn't that put alot more people in play?tellicowx said:Yeah CMC starts to bomb off GA coastWebberweather53 said:Here's what I'm talking about. That ULL over great lakes starts to dig considerably further southwestward than the previous run and phases with this once it gets to GA. Although this run may miss wide right (GFS progressive bias may be partially to blame) it highlights the fact there's definitely a risk of a huge coastal Miller A bomb off the Carolinas and VA... If we see the same trend with this feature that we observed with the first northern stream disturbance that's going to shear this out a little over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies in the next day or so (w/ NS disturbance trending deeper, further SW), could get mighty interesting to say the least in the Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic
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whatalife
Moderator
Shawn said:
I think it's in a good spot for the most part
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Storm5
Member
I mean why are we worrying about temps off an unreliable model 3-4 days out . it's kinda obvious the gfs is on its own at the model . Eric brought up a good point about the gfs being too progressive.
God I need some tequila . gonna be along 4 days
better get the wife some wine incase we are snowed in
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God I need some tequila . gonna be along 4 days
better get the wife some wine incase we are snowed in
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dsaur
Member
Bham 99 said:
Agreed. Since I've been south of Atl, after living in Atl until the early 80's, I've seen deeper snow than I ever saw in Atl. Sometimes things line up right and we are closer to the heavy rains near the furnace, but not so close as to be warm nosed to death. Atl gets it more often, but I get deeper amounts when I get a good path thru here. T
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 said:I mean why are we worrying about temps off an unreliable model 3-4 days out . it's kinda obvious the gfs is on its own at the model . Eric brought up a good point about the gfs being too progressive.
God I need some tequila . gonna be along 4 days
better get the wife some wine incase we are snowed in
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LOL! Nice. You've gone from loaning your wife out to buying her a bottle of wine. HAHA!
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H
HartselleWeather
Guest
What the the ukmet say about the storm?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
tellicowx said:Also, if this starts to phase sooner, wouldn't that put alot more people in play?tellicowx said:Yeah CMC starts to bomb off GA coastWebberweather53 said:Here's what I'm talking about. That ULL over great lakes starts to dig considerably further southwestward than the previous run and phases with this once it gets to GA. Although this run may miss wide right (GFS progressive bias may be partially to blame) it highlights the fact there's definitely a risk of a huge coastal Miller A bomb off the Carolinas and VA... If we see the same trend with this feature that we observed with the first northern stream disturbance that's going to shear this out a little over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies in the next day or so (w/ NS disturbance trending deeper, further SW), could get mighty interesting to say the least in the Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic
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Yea it would, but that would most likely be the Apps and Mid-Atlantic and mixing would be an issue along/south of I-20, but it definitely would up the ante for areas of the Carolinas & VA, perhaps northeastern GA... The track/intensity being advertised by the UKMET atm is ideal for the I-85 corridor from ATL-GSP-CLT-GSO-RDU-RIC
Shawn said:
I honestly don't buy that. It's the warmest model of them all. I would think Temps should support snow or wintry precip down our way.
Storm5
Member
held serve looks like previous runs. would get a similar cmc solutionHartselleWeather said:
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Claycochaser
Member
Well, lookie here...found you guys! In the nick of time it appears.