alfoman
Member
Storm5 link said:
Why is it such a common bias for the models to have a height shift northward as we get closer to the date?
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I have no clue . But it's a real thing no doubt . Blocking always gets over emphasized only to relax a little as we roll forward with patterns. We joke every year " fear the NW trend" . But it's because we have been down that road over and over and over. the gfs for one has a cold northern stream bias. It loves to show big cold presses in the medium range only to let up in the short range. The euro in the past had a warm temp bias , but even the upgrade seems to have a cold bias now. So after rambling on and not answering your question lol I have no clue ....
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Thats what scares me about this situation honestly. When you tend to have models over emphasizing blocking and the strength of highs in the 3-5 day range, what is stopping the solution shown on the 0Z GFS from happening? We don't get the double barrel high we need to keep the low on a more southern miler A track and you end up getting a much more amplified miller B type scenario. Is there anything encouraging bias-wise that could prog the GFS as too relaxed?
I've been model watching since 2010/second year met student, but I honestly do not recall seeing this much diversity within a 48 hour model period.
