bouncycorn
Meteorologist
They're almost all too warm
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bouncycorn
Meteorologist
All of the members that show snow changeover to rain.
Better than nothing. I'll take it.bouncycorn link said:
Storm5
Member
no they don't . depends on the area.e10 stays all frozen and e20 at first glance . but yes alot dobouncycorn link said:
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bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Most of north Georgia is rain on both. Very odd. Usually it's change over from rain to snow but this is snow to rain.
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According to the GEFS Probability map there's at least a 10% chance of 6" of snow for much of North GA.
Storm5
Member
Yeah I'm not saying there aren't members that don't do that . I was just saying it depends on the locationbouncycorn link said:
Most of north Georgia is rain on both. Very odd. Usually it's change over from rain to snow but this is snow to rain.
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Storm5
Member
Yeah the 18z para was a hit for most
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mydoortotheworld
Member
liked the mean on 18z better but even this run is leagues ahead of 12z
Bouncy, maybe I'm blind but that looks like snow to me for most of North GA.
Storm5
Member
I mean where we are on Sunday night leaves me concerned . for days and days the models were showing a very nice transient NAO block. over the last 4 days it keeps trending weaker and weaker and further to the NE. The NW trend could be very real with this system especially if it's able to strengthen modestly. we are worrying about our shortwave which we should . But we can't just ignore the fact that there is room for this to go NW
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Yea the NW trend is by far the thing I am most scared about. I would give it a good chance of occurring. Hope the Euro is suppresed
Storm5
Member
after looking over each gefs member it's close to a 50/50 split. there was greater support for a more northern solution than I though originally when I just glanced. so the 00z gfs solution is a very real possibilityNorthGAWinterWx link said:
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Storm5 link said:
More in line with the 00z CMC which is not bad considering the CMC was the middle road between the GFS and UK. If only we could converge on this scenario since it would be the best or at least better outcome for most.
alfoman
Member
Storm5 link said:
Why is it such a common bias for the models to have a height shift northward as we get closer to the date?
Bsudweather
Member
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after looking over each gefs member it's close to a 50/50 split. there was greater support for a more northern solution than I though originally when I just glanced. so the 00z gfs solution is a very real possibilityStorm5 link said:
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Yea but this was really the first crazy run in quite a few runs from the GFS. The CMC and the EURO has been more consistent than the gfs. IMO the 00z GFS is a outlier. We will see
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Storm5
Member
alfoman link said:
Why is it such a common bias for the models to have a height shift northward as we get closer to the date?
[/quote]
I have no clue . But it's a real thing no doubt . Blocking always gets over emphasized only to relax a little as we roll forward with patterns. We joke every year " fear the NW trend" . But it's because we have been down that road over and over and over. the gfs for one has a cold northern stream bias. It loves to show big cold presses in the medium range only to let up in the short range. The euro in the past had a warm temp bias , but even the upgrade seems to have a cold bias now. So after rambling on and not answering your question lol I have no clue ....
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Storm5
Member
after looking over each gefs member it's close to a 50/50 split. there was greater support for a more northern solution than I though originally when I just glanced. so the 00z gfs solution is a very real possibilityBsudweather link said:
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[/quote]
Yea but this was really the first crazy run in quite a few runs from the GFS. The CMC and the EURO has been more consistent than the gfs. IMO the 00z GFS is a outlier. We will see
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I don't disagree with your statement. I was just pointing out that there was more support for an op like solution vs what I originally thought when I glanced over the ensembles
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Storm5
Member
don't fail us now euro....
so far so good . It's a good bit faster with out energy vs the gfs so that's a good start
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so far so good . It's a good bit faster with out energy vs the gfs so that's a good start
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