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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Well, I'm leaning on the 0z CMC and 18z GFS, no not the newest run cause it has the low too far north. 0z CMC still agrees with 18z GFS.

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I think the 00z UK is still on the suppressed route, so that could still be a possibility. I think Webber said it best it could be Tuesday/Tuesday night before we get a clear consensus on this. We just went from a Miller A storm at 18z to a cutter at 00z, so much for that great consistency lol.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=olhausen link=topic=80.msg6691#msg6691 date=1483332589]
I'm probably the only one on this forum that likes this gfs run. Thing is though is that it will change by the next run and the one after that. So to all you cliff jumpers out there you might want to take a step back and just relax a little.

cce62da3d02d0e44b14d990b85bd54b1.png



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Hey that doesn't look that bad for North GA either.
[/quote]

yeah but all of that, at least in NGA, is ice, not snow
 
mydoortotheworld link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6696#msg6696 date=1483332816]
[quote author=olhausen link=topic=80.msg6691#msg6691 date=1483332589]
I'm probably the only one on this forum that likes this gfs run. Thing is though is that it will change by the next run and the one after that. So to all you cliff jumpers out there you might want to take a step back and just relax a little.

cce62da3d02d0e44b14d990b85bd54b1.png



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Click to expand...
Hey that doesn't look that bad for North GA either.
[/quote]

yeah but all of that, at least in NGA, is ice, not snow
[/quote] Well heck, at least its SOMETHING. Everyone on here had me all freaked out acting like this run was all rain in GA. I wonder if that is Sleet or Freezing Rain in N GA ?
 
olhausen link said:
I'm probably the only one on this forum that likes this gfs run. Thing is though is that it will change by the next run and the one after that. So to all you cliff jumpers out there you might want to take a step back and just relax a little.

cce62da3d02d0e44b14d990b85bd54b1.png



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Click to expand...
I would take it, drop south another 50 miles and I would love it! LOL!
 
Weatherlover92 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6688#msg6688 date=1483332486]
Well, I'm leaning on the 0z CMC and 18z GFS, no not the newest run cause it has the low too far north. 0z CMC still agrees with 18z GFS.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I think the 00z UK is still on the suppressed route, so that could still be a possibility. I think Webber said it best it could be Tuesday/Tuesday night before we get a clear consensus on this. We just went from a Miller A storm at 18z to a cutter at 00z, so much for that great consistency lol.
[/quote]

Really looks Miller Bish to me on what I saw and it does look a little strange with both a high pressure and blocking involved. It's just so late that the high pressure eventually leaves.
 
Weatherlover92 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6688#msg6688 date=1483332486]
Well, I'm leaning on the 0z CMC and 18z GFS, no not the newest run cause it has the low too far north. 0z CMC still agrees with 18z GFS.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I think the 00z UK is still on the suppressed route, so that could still be a possibility. I think Webber said it best it could be Tuesday/Tuesday night before we get a clear consensus on this. We just went from a Miller A storm at 18z to a cutter at 00z, so much for that great consistency lol.
[/quote]

Yep, the upper level low north of Hawaii interacting with our trough over the Pacific northwest is causing the unusually large uncertainties and windshield wiper-esque alterations from run to run in the models... This feature probably won't be adequately sampled at any point in time :/ I sure hope we initialize it right in a few days...
 
So the latest GooFuS throw out the all too familiar NW trend but the CMC keeps the party going but it's also got a poor track record this far out.  How close to the event does the CMC need to get to where it's reliability can be counted on?  96 hrs?  72?  48?
 
ghost1 link said:
So the latest GooFuS throw out the all too familiar NW trend but the CMC keeps the party going but it's also got a poor track record this far out.  How close to the event does the CMC need to get to where it's reliability can be counted on?  96 hrs?  72?  48?
Click to expand...
The RGEM, the short range canadian is much better...what is it 48?
 
Storm5 link said:
00z gefs looks pretty sexy

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For anyone specific?
I really need to get a wx bell subscription....
 
ATLWxFan link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6709#msg6709 date=1483333984]
00z gefs looks pretty sexy

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But will you leave your wife for her? LOL


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[/quote]
depends on which gefs member is promised to me .....

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Stormlover link said:
[quote author=ghost1 link=topic=80.msg6710#msg6710 date=1483334022]
So the latest GooFuS throw out the all too familiar NW trend but the CMC keeps the party going but it's also got a poor track record this far out.  How close to the event does the CMC need to get to where it's reliability can be counted on?  96 hrs?  72?  48?
Click to expand...
The RGEM, the short range canadian is much better...what is it 48?
[/quote]
Thanks SL... but not sure if I have a link for it.  Is it on pay sites only?
 
farleydawg79 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6709#msg6709 date=1483333984]
00z gefs looks pretty sexy

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For anyone specific?
I really need to get a wx bell subscription....
[/quote]
Lots of hits . not much support for the gfs op

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=farleydawg79 link=topic=80.msg6712#msg6712 date=1483334098]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6709#msg6709 date=1483333984]
00z gefs looks pretty sexy

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Click to expand...
For anyone specific?
I really need to get a wx bell subscription....
[/quote]
Lots of hits . not much support for the gfs op

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[/quote]
Thanks Storm
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg6713#msg6713 date=1483334121]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6709#msg6709 date=1483333984]
00z gefs looks pretty sexy

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Click to expand...
But will you leave your wife for her? LOL


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[/quote]
depends on which gefs member is promised to me .....

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[/quote]
and I never said I would leave her. I said I would loan her out :)

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=farleydawg79 link=topic=80.msg6712#msg6712 date=1483334098]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6709#msg6709 date=1483333984]
00z gefs looks pretty sexy

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
For anyone specific?
I really need to get a wx bell subscription....
[/quote]
Lots of hits . not much support for the gfs op

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


[/quote]
ghost1 link said:
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg6711#msg6711 date=1483334080]
[quote author=ghost1 link=topic=80.msg6710#msg6710 date=1483334022]
So the latest GooFuS throw out the all too familiar NW trend but the CMC keeps the party going but it's also got a poor track record this far out.  How close to the event does the CMC need to get to where it's reliability can be counted on?  96 hrs?  72?  48?
Click to expand...
The RGEM, the short range canadian is much better...what is it 48?
[/quote]
Thanks SL... but not sure if I have a link for it.  Is it on pay sites only?
[/quote]No, it's on many places, like the official Canadian weather site, and here is another  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem
 
bouncycorn link said:
GEFS totally different from GFS. We toss the 00Z GFS!
Click to expand...
it still has some support though . I counted 4 supporting members . but in general it was a good run

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Gefs mean looks good says op to far north. 18z para is a NC dream job just like 18z op.
 
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