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Aubighitter
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So just to sort this out we have gfs, cmc, and gfs para now showing snow for my area. Euro and ukmet flurries?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Not saying that this thing comes north, but climo would argue against the rain/snow line being that far south. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, for those rooting for a more amped up storm closer to the coast, sadly, it will take many locations out of the game. I would love to see a board-wide dump, but someone will always be left out. At least we are not looking at the ZR accumulations that was modeled yesterday. One thing about miller A's, they have a small transition zone, unlike miller B's.whatalife said:06z PARA
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Ron Burgundy
Member
SimeonNC said:
Lord, I hate when they do that.
Are there mandatory evacuations yet over the pending wrath of Helena?
It will be a coastal low, good agreement with CMC and Euro. 12z GFS should be improved with the low placement. There could be some variations with the position of low... fluctuating between more of a southern track and more of a northern track.NWMSGuy said:
I love being just to the NW of the good stuff 4 days out
NWMSGuy
Member
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Thanks for the info!
Flo
Member
Cad Wedge NC said:Not saying that this thing comes north, but climo would argue against the rain/snow line being that far south. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, for those rooting for a more amped up storm closer to the coast, sadly, it will take many locations out of the game. I would love to see a board-wide dump, but someone will always be left out. At least we are not looking at the ZR accumulations that was modeled yesterday. One thing about miller A's, they have a small transition zone, unlike miller B's.whatalife said:06z PARA
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Just bc of people on the other board, I wish most of NC would get shut out.
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 said:SD is warming up....
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LOL!
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Storm5
Member
3 days for some depending in locationmetwannabe said:
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Snowflowxxl
Member
I'm in the sweet spot on everything but the Euro! Nervous this far out
Bsudweather
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I honestly think us upstate, NGA, through areas like Charlotte is going to get hammered pretty good. Models are looking pretty good for these areas to be in the zone, especially if it pulls back a bit NW.
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FLO said:Cad Wedge NC said:Not saying that this thing comes north, but climo would argue against the rain/snow line being that far south. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, for those rooting for a more amped up storm closer to the coast, sadly, it will take many locations out of the game. I would love to see a board-wide dump, but someone will always be left out. At least we are not looking at the ZR accumulations that was modeled yesterday. One thing about miller A's, they have a small transition zone, unlike miller B's.whatalife said:06z PARA
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Just bc of people on the other board, I wish most of NC would get shut out.
:s
Snowflowxxl
Member
Shawn throwing that shade on the other board lmao love it
Totally agree +1NorthGAWinterWx said:
No snow for you
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Bsudweather said:
I agree. If the system does get amp'ed up you will see if come more NW and put I-85 in the jack pot zone. Too amp'ed and we will see a warm nose up this way as well though.
Decent trend with the NAM. Going to need another good Euro run and we'll start to see the local mets bite.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Excuse me.... I have been on this board for quite a while, thank you. Comments like that will get you a lengthy time-out.FLO said:Cad Wedge NC said:Not saying that this thing comes north, but climo would argue against the rain/snow line being that far south. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, for those rooting for a more amped up storm closer to the coast, sadly, it will take many locations out of the game. I would love to see a board-wide dump, but someone will always be left out. At least we are not looking at the ZR accumulations that was modeled yesterday. One thing about miller A's, they have a small transition zone, unlike miller B's.whatalife said:06z PARA
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Just bc of people on the other board, I wish most of NC would get shut out.
Storm5 said:SD is warming up....
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packfan98
Moderator
Cad Wedge NC said:Excuse me.... I have been on this board for quite a while, thank you. Comments like that will get you a lengthy time-out.FLO said:Cad Wedge NC said:Not saying that this thing comes north, but climo would argue against the rain/snow line being that far south. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, for those rooting for a more amped up storm closer to the coast, sadly, it will take many locations out of the game. I would love to see a board-wide dump, but someone will always be left out. At least we are not looking at the ZR accumulations that was modeled yesterday. One thing about miller A's, they have a small transition zone, unlike miller B's.whatalife said:06z PARA
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Just bc of people on the other board, I wish most of NC would get shut out.
I concur.
By the way, I seemed to have accidentally subscribed to this thread and get an email for each reply. How do you turn that off?
SnowFlowXXL said:
Not my fault!
I just wanted to tell everyone from the CAE area that the NWS introduced snow into the official forecast and while I'm not sure of the ptype or amounts, the Euro shifting a bit gives more credence to a Winter WX event as a whole. They can go ---- off if they want to delete that post.
accu35
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The good thing that there will be a low in the gulf, rather it's further or closer to the coast, we all would still see a good impact. Even if it came closer to the coast MBY will still look good if the cold is right on time
HixsonWX
Member
metwannabe said:
Me and you both! We need that Northwest trend to do its thing!
GFS is about to run.
GFS 12Z is running!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not saying that this thing comes north, but climo would argue against the rain/snow line being that far south. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, for those rooting for a more amped up storm closer to the coast, sadly, it will take many locations out of the game. I would love to see a board-wide dump, but someone will always be left out. At least we are not looking at the ZR accumulations that was modeled yesterday. One thing about miller A's, they have a small transition zone, unlike miller B's.
You definitely bring up some important points and concerns I've had in the back of my mind since yesterday when I noticed ECMWF/UKMET/CMC suites trending stronger with the energy out west and deeper/further SE with the disturbance over the Great lakes ~ day 4. I definitely think areas along/south and east of the I-85 corridor from Raleigh-Durham-Greensboro-Charlotte and Greenville-Spartanburg definitely have to keep this in the back of their mind going forward as a more amplified system would take areas well southeast of here out of the core of the storm and put DC-BAL-PHL-NYC-BOS into it... That's definitely a very legitimate scenario given the climatology, historical trends in guidance in short-medium range, and what we've seen of late with this system. If there was to be a significant shift in the track and amplitude of this storm, I personally favor a more amplified/further NW solution panning out as opposed to suppressed/SE. We'll see though, although many here complained that our shortwave was phasing more with the northern stream over the west in the short range, it's probably a good thing this happened because a more amplified system like the 12z GFS yesterday showed emerging from the Rockies and even partially phasing with the northern stream would have been game-set-match for the mid-Atlantic & climatologically favored areas of the far western piedmont and mountains of NC. The fact that this isn't happening is keeping this interesting for areas further to the south & east.
You definitely bring up some important points and concerns I've had in the back of my mind since yesterday when I noticed ECMWF/UKMET/CMC suites trending stronger with the energy out west and deeper/further SE with the disturbance over the Great lakes ~ day 4. I definitely think areas along/south and east of the I-85 corridor from Raleigh-Durham-Greensboro-Charlotte and Greenville-Spartanburg definitely have to keep this in the back of their mind going forward as a more amplified system would take areas well southeast of here out of the core of the storm and put DC-BAL-PHL-NYC-BOS into it... That's definitely a very legitimate scenario given the climatology, historical trends in guidance in short-medium range, and what we've seen of late with this system. If there was to be a significant shift in the track and amplitude of this storm, I personally favor a more amplified/further NW solution panning out as opposed to suppressed/SE. We'll see though, although many here complained that our shortwave was phasing more with the northern stream over the west in the short range, it's probably a good thing this happened because a more amplified system like the 12z GFS yesterday showed emerging from the Rockies and even partially phasing with the northern stream would have been game-set-match for the mid-Atlantic & climatologically favored areas of the far western piedmont and mountains of NC. The fact that this isn't happening is keeping this interesting for areas further to the south & east.
Flo
Member
I can't get timeout from that board for something I say on this board.Cad Wedge NC said:Excuse me.... I have been on this board for quite a while, thank you. Comments like that will get you a lengthy time-out.FLO said:Cad Wedge NC said:Not saying that this thing comes north, but climo would argue against the rain/snow line being that far south. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, for those rooting for a more amped up storm closer to the coast, sadly, it will take many locations out of the game. I would love to see a board-wide dump, but someone will always be left out. At least we are not looking at the ZR accumulations that was modeled yesterday. One thing about miller A's, they have a small transition zone, unlike miller B's.whatalife said:06z PARA
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Just bc of people on the other board, I wish most of NC would get shut out.
Here comes the GFS.
Oh my... Already some significant differences at H5 as of hr9. Crazy inconsistency!
Northern stream is much slower on this run. Could mean more interaction/phasing.
Is that good or bad?
Snowfan said:
Probably bad. The NS is taking the energy from the system and we may have a run like the 00z or worse.
A full phase could occur but that'd just change everything entirely. It'd put much of us out of the hit-zone and some of us in.