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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

I do like the amount of available cold air. The last two GFS runs and the CMC are things of beauty for central AL/GA.
 
Shawn said:
FLO said:
Shawn said:
FLO said:
Shawn said:
When all is said and done we will end up with IP/ZR.  If anything Wintry at all.  Sucks, I want a good Southern snow storm!
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I am so confused. Just a few posts before this you said Cola is in the 4-6 inch range.
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Just talking about weather with Delta.  I had just said the model put out 4-6 inches here if you take it at face value.
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TWC is calling for 1-3 inches overnight Fri into Saturday morning. We will get nothing now. Besides, I want to see it fall. I get no joy out of it snowing while I sleep.
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You do know that TWC forecasts are like "nice worded" versions of the raw GFS data?   It sucks, but your local TWC forecast is a compute rmodel.
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That is why I said we will get nothing now. Whenever I see TWC call for snow, it doesn't snow. Same with Ben Tanner. If he calls for snow we are doomed.
 
Usually very conservative Rah NWS discussion.... they are just about on board

Friday Night and Saturday: The models are in better agreement and thus there is an increase in forecast confidence with respect to the overall pattern for this part of the period. However, there are still differences in timing between the GFS and ECMWF. Generally, a shortwave trough will move through the Midwest Friday night and into the Carolinas on Saturday. Meanwhile, southwest flow aloft will result in good moisture transport from the Gulf. Also, a surface low will develop over the Gulf and move NE through FL and along the Carolina coast. There is more than sufficient moisture and forcing mechanisms to result in precipitation during this period, much of which will be snow or a rain/snow mix transitioning to all snow (based on the current temperature forecast). Overnight lows will be in the 20s and highs will be in the mid to upper 30s. This period will be closely monitored over the next several days, as it provides the best chance for impactful winter weather.
 
FLO said:
Shawn said:
FLO said:
Shawn said:
FLO said:
I am so confused. Just a few posts before this you said Cola is in the 4-6 inch range.
Click to expand...

Just talking about weather with Delta.  I had just said the model put out 4-6 inches here if you take it at face value.
Click to expand...

TWC is calling for 1-3 inches overnight Fri into Saturday morning. We will get nothing now. Besides, I want to see it fall. I get no joy out of it snowing while I sleep.
Click to expand...


You do know that TWC forecasts are like "nice worded" versions of the raw GFS data?   It sucks, but your local TWC forecast is a compute rmodel.
Click to expand...
That is why I said we will get nothing now. Whenever I see TWC call for snow, it doesn't snow. Same with Ben Tanner. If he calls for snow we are doomed.
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Ha Ben Tanner was the person to mention a "wintry mix" but Jim Gandy came on board too last night.
 
FLO said:
Shawn said:
FLO said:
Shawn said:
FLO said:
I am so confused. Just a few posts before this you said Cola is in the 4-6 inch range.
Click to expand...

Just talking about weather with Delta.  I had just said the model put out 4-6 inches here if you take it at face value.
Click to expand...

TWC is calling for 1-3 inches overnight Fri into Saturday morning. We will get nothing now. Besides, I want to see it fall. I get no joy out of it snowing while I sleep.
Click to expand...


You do know that TWC forecasts are like "nice worded" versions of the raw GFS data?   It sucks, but your local TWC forecast is a compute rmodel.
Click to expand...
That is why I said we will get nothing now. Whenever I see TWC call for snow, it doesn't snow. Same with Ben Tanner. If he calls for snow we are doomed.
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Those guys like Ben Tanner won't say anything until the NWS does.  Long story short those local guys are on a tight leash about mentioning Wintry weather around these parts.  The only time they do it and get away with it is when the NWS talks about it in thei forecast discussion.
 
Looks like 8 of the GEFS members have a good storm here, while some have hardly anything. An all or nothing deal, which is pretty common here.
 
Tagat said:
James Spann ABC33/40:
snow-2-600x396.jpg
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I think this is a good start and placement, i woud lower that winter storm graft one more county down, Clarke co?
 
To make you guys feel better again, KCAE had this to say as of 8:18 AM EST

Confidence in the long term period remains low on details but the
00z GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement with a potential winter
storm over the Southeastern States. However significant timing
issues remain. Both models show an amplified upper trough over the
eastern CONUS into the weekend with a modified Arctic air mass
over the area. Temperatures likely well below normal over the
weekend. Confidence high on that point. Moisture streaming
southeast from the Intermountain West and Great Plains to the
lower Mississippi Valley by late Friday. Low pressure developing
in the Gulf of Mexico tracking northeast across Florida...possibly
a favorable storm track for winter weather. Cold air appears in
place Saturday and the predominate precip type is snow given
partial thickness and sounding profiles. Raised pops to chance
Friday night and Saturday with potential for accumulating snow
during a portion of the period. Clear late weekend into early
next week but cold.
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metwannabe said:
Usually very conservative Rah NWS discussion.... they are just about on board

Friday Night and Saturday: The models are in better agreement and thus there is an increase in forecast confidence with respect to the overall pattern for this part of the period. However, there are still differences in timing between the GFS and ECMWF. Generally, a shortwave trough will move through the Midwest Friday night and into the Carolinas on Saturday. Meanwhile, southwest flow aloft will result in good moisture transport from the Gulf. Also, a surface low will develop over the Gulf and move NE through FL and along the Carolina coast. There is more than sufficient moisture and forcing mechanisms to result in precipitation during this period, much of which will be snow or a rain/snow mix transitioning to all snow (based on the current temperature forecast). Overnight lows will be in the 20s and highs will be in the mid to upper 30s. This period will be closely monitored over the next several days, as it provides the best chance for impactful winter weather.
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I like the sound of that, specially the SW flow from the Gulf. We should have good convection.
 
KCAE precip type says snow on their software/profiles.  if we get a system get ready.
 
I do like what GFS is showing, it trended more accumulation of snow this morning on 6z, very interested to see if it trends colder then the amounts will increase. Would love to see the moisture inrich little more but great potential winter storm.
 
12z NAM still trending towards more interaction between our ULL off of Oregon and the northern stream disturbance over the next dew days, oth, the shortwave over the Great Lakes ~ day 4 in most guidance has trended further SE and could attempt to phase with our southern stream system as it nears the Atlantic coast, which would effectively lead to a formidable Miller A, brining the Mid-Atlantic/NE US I-95 corridor into play as well as bringing forth some mixing issues esp over eastern sections of the Carolinas and even VA. A lot of things still left to sort out, our northern stream disturbance is currently being sampled by RAOB network and this data should be ingested into the models no later than 0z tonight.
 
No snow for you said:
Shawn said:
KCAE precip type says snow on their software/profiles.  if we get a system get ready.
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Stop posting on both sites!!!! (JK btw)
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 Haha, I think I'm done posting on either side as a whole.
 
Chattanooga's snow totals took a nosedive off a cliff with this morning's GFS run... We had a ISU Meteogram average of 8 inches yesterday and now it is down to half an inch. :-(

Come on Northwest trend!
 
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
FEATURE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER AK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR MEANDERING CLOSED LOWS TO INHABIT THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
TO THE EAST OF THIS BLOCKING REGIME...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE IN PLAY
WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORING MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A FORMER CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD LIKELY BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
ABSORBED BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS REPEATEDLY BEEN SLOWER ALLOWING FOR MORE OF
A SEPARATION WHICH LEADS TO A GREATER DEAL OF AMPLIFICATION
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID-SOUTH REGION. AFTER
LOOKING AT THE 00Z GFS...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO BE FLATTER WITH
THE ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE BEING WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS WRAPPED-UP COASTAL LOW
IT WAS FORECASTING. IT DOES STILL REMAIN WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES AS THE 00Z UKMET LOOKS MORE LIKE THE FORMER GFS RUNS
WITH A 983-MB CYCLONE OFF OF CAPE COD MA BY 08/1200Z. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THIS FEATURE DATING BACK TO
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...IT IS STILL WORTH MONITORING. THE GOAL IN THE
EARLIER PACKAGE WAS TO UTILIZE A MORE ENSEMBLE BASED APPROACH WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT OF DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 BEING COMPROMISED OF THE 18Z
GFS/12Z GFS-PARALLEL TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO
WPC Discussion
 
HixsonWX said:
Chattanooga's snow totals took a nosedive off a cliff  with this morning's GFS run... We had a ISU Meteogram average of 8 inches yesterday and now it is down to half an inch. :-(

Come on Northwest trend!
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If this storm happens it will be horrible if we have to watch a flurry or 2  floating around while 30 miles to our south in Dalton, GA. they are getting slammed with snow. :mad:
 
Storm5 said:
accu35 said:
Tagat said:
James Spann ABC33/40:
snow-2-600x396.jpg
Click to expand...

I think this is a good start and placement, i woud lower that winter storm graft one more county down, Clarke co?
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I would bump it up a row or two

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
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Yeah even on the day of the event if move the heaviest band 50-100 miles north.
 
Sounds like the NAM is looking better. Huffman said it is a trend in the right direction, juicier/more amped/further north with precip/moisture shield in 72-84 hour range than previous runs.
 
Uncle Nasty said:
HixsonWX said:
Chattanooga's snow totals took a nosedive off a cliff  with this morning's GFS run... We had a ISU Meteogram average of 8 inches yesterday and now it is down to half an inch. :-(

Come on Northwest trend!
Click to expand...

If this storm happens it will be horrible if we have to watch a flurry or 2  floating around while 30 miles to our south in Dalton, GA. they are getting slammed with snow. :mad:
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Yep...
 
I'm counting on you getting a big snow in Hixson. If so I'll be heading there to my daughter's home from southeast Mississippi.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Shawn said:
Hey btw guys, post suggestions in the new site forum on how you want the site to look/behave. we are on a system now where much of it can happen.
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To me Shawn, it would be great if the background color could be a medium color.....blue, grey or something like that. It makes it so much easier on the eyes than staring at a stark white background for hours. Just like what's going on right now with a potential storm on the horizon, we read these pages for hours on end it seems. A medium background color would be so much more pleasing to the eyes. Don't know how doable that might be but that's my suggestion. :heart:
 
HixsonWX said:
Uncle Nasty said:
HixsonWX said:
Chattanooga's snow totals took a nosedive off a cliff  with this morning's GFS run... We had a ISU Meteogram average of 8 inches yesterday and now it is down to half an inch. :-(

Come on Northwest trend!
Click to expand...

If this storm happens it will be horrible if we have to watch a flurry or 2  floating around while 30 miles to our south in Dalton, GA. they are getting slammed with snow. :mad:
Click to expand...

Yep...
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Counting on you getting a good snow in Hixson so I can drive up to my daughter's home there Friday to enjoy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This is the 12z 12km NAM...I use the 12km NAM cause I've seen good modeling before from it. Interacting with the GOM!
084dee3413079c3ea6dca71f5f135d89.jpg
 
I still favor the track to the south at the moment. We shall see if that changes. Ie it usually does. Lol. Nam looks more gfs like vs euro athe the moment
 
So any chance this will trend back to a mostly coastal low? 06Z GFS run yesterday and some of the Para was looking really sweet for the Mid-South/Memphis area. Looks like the brunt of the storm has been trending southward since then.
 
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