H
HartselleWeather
Guest
Storm5 said:metwannabe said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Hey storm how reliable is the para gfs ?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Hey storm how reliable is the para gfs ?
Snowflowxxl
Member
For N GA posters, every model tonight has given us atleast 2 inches. This could be our best event since JAN 2011
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
This is a real roller coaster ride.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If the early returns on 0z are a trend...really looks like the Euro may have been out to lunch again on a system this winter...
Benholio
Member
I'm having a hard time getting excited over the 18z para given the changes in the 0z gfs. CMC and UK are encouraging, though. Can't wait to see GEFS and Doctor Maybe.
Cary_Snow95
Member
HartselleWeather said:Storm5 said:metwannabe said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using
If only the GFS had held serve I would be confident as hell right now
JLL1973
Member
Storm5 said:18z gfs para
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
i was just about to post that. ill take that and call it a winter
H
HartselleWeather
Guest
SnowFlowXXL said:
I feeling a repeat of the 2011 storm. Very similar in my opinion
Snow_chaser
Member
Need some Dramamine with this back and forth lol
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Why do I keep getting PMs for relies to this thread when I am not subscribed to it?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The UKMET phases with that aforementioned secondary NS disturbance ~96-110 HR over the Great Lakes... That's why the low starts to deepen and come northward along and just off the Carolina coast
Storm5
Member
second highest 500mb verification scores behind the euroHartselleWeather said:Storm5 said:metwannabe said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Hey storm how reliable is the para gfs ?
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
Para is superior vs the gfs op at H5. it's scores prove itBenholio said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
I'm still going with a blend of the CMC and GFS...and maybe the 0z Euro. I know I said I'll go with a blend of the Euro as well but the new data will be coming in. I don't think the low will be pushed that far south. Usually with GOM lows that give the southeastern states snow, normally go up the Eastern seaboard giving the Mid-Atlantic and the northeast a big snow.
With this type setup the Ukie, followed closely by Euro in verification during this timeframe....really wished I could find that study.Storm5 said:second highest 500mb verification scores behind the euroHartselleWeather said:Storm5 said:metwannabe said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Hey storm how reliable is the para gfs ?
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
Cary_Snow95
Member
Storm5 said:
so is the para just the 18z version of the GFS... so the 0z para tomorrow could look like the 0z gfs tonight...
ATLwxfan
Member
Interesting tidbit on the GFS Para.
http://blog.wright-weather.com/?p=1124
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
http://blog.wright-weather.com/?p=1124
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Benholio
Member
Storm5 said:
A good looking 0z para would be very encouraging.
H
HartselleWeather
Guest
If this low in the gulf was about 50-100 miles northward it would have been crushed town for a lot more people. That's my amateur opinion.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS Para says temps will be fine
olhausen
Member
Stormlover said:Storm5 said:
yep
I'll take the para since it's the only model giving me a decent snow tonight!
I'm thinking ECMWF 00z will be a pretty big slugger. CMC and UKMET both trended north.
Benholio
Member
SnowFlowXXL said:
The (18z) GFS said temps would be fine too. Comparing 18z GFS para to 0z GFS is a bit apples-to-oranges.
olhausen
Member
Oops I somehow quoted the wrong post
Stormlover said:
OK now I have one eye open.....I'll take my eight and call it a winter.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Let me correct myself a bit, the GFS run doesn't lose the high but it never moves into a position to pump in CAD in the CAD areas. It's a little weird but it just totally stalls in the Midwest.
That may be causing the change in temps on this run.
That may be causing the change in temps on this run.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
There's 106 people that need to register.
WeatherGirl205
Member
Just wanted to say a quick hello to all, so glad I was able to find y'all again.
ATLwxfan
Member
Sorry if this is a re-post but Kirk Mellish had some good thoughts on the model mayhem.
http://kirkmellish.blog.wsbradio.com/2017/01/02/cold-to-return-snow-odds-to-be-monitored/
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
http://kirkmellish.blog.wsbradio.com/2017/01/02/cold-to-return-snow-odds-to-be-monitored/
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
snowplow
Member
Gfs para has had almost exact same storm track for the last 5 runs....fwiw!
Aubighitter
Member
- Joined
- Dec 11, 2016
- Messages
- 28
- Reaction score
- 0
Dang cmc had 7 inches in Lee CTY and the gfs almost 3.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
UK hasn't backed down the last couple of days, and now seems to be showing an even bigger storm.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Although the GFS solution of a stronger cut-off ULL is appearing less likely atm, there's definitely more than one way to produce a monster storm for the Carolinas and surrounding areas of the SE in this situation. This shortwave over the Great lakes ~ day 4 will provide another chink in the armor for the global models, and its this feature that the CMC and UKMET key in on and partially phase it with our feeble southern branch disturbance, hence produce huge hits for the Carolinas and VA. If they mishandle this system and it gets involved, then it's a whole new ball game...
UKMET for ex...
UKMET for ex...
Storm5
Member
it will be fixed tomorrowNorthGAWinterWx said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk