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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

I would argue that at hr 90 its not much different than the 18z run....nice little tilt to it...
 
Benholio said:
Out to 87:

gfs_0z_comparison_87h.png


As the precip gets in range, I'll start posting precip/850/pressure comparisons.
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There's definitely a slight difference, but not big enough to keep the wintry weather away


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well, this run has the energy further south at hr 90 and a tad bit healthier vs 18z gfs nice seperation as well.
 
It doesn't look as robust to me in comparing but overall it looks pretty good, if the UKMET truly is pointing to a possible Euro shift we might not be in bad shape.
 
Yeah it's a middle of the road run between what the gfs had original with the big runs and the euro

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Not a bad run at all. The wave is weaker so there will be less qpf and less warm nose issues for some

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Storm5 said:
Stormlover said:
Brent said:
lol at the conflicting posts again
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for real, it's hilarious, some say better, it's another big dog, and others are trashing it....never fails jumping to conclusions.
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it's not a conclusion, it's an opinion . it's fairly simple to get one if you actually compare different runs

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Yes, I'm comparing the 18z GFS, it's about the same. It's going to be another BIG DOG.
 
it felt the tug but wasn't completely destroyed and now we still have a fairly robust s/w to work with.... I can't add more than what's already been stated but I think this may not end as bad as it originally looked.

And I did notice the first wave came back to life this run for TN and portions of NC
 
Run will be fine. Again, when someone like i say it looks bad its because of more shearing garbage on the wave. This will produce more Winter weather again. I really hope the Euro and GFS are going to meet in the middle tonight. We are getting close to the time-range for it to happen.
 
if I was NC guys I wouldn't quite sleep on the first wave along SE coast..took a step in a better direction

18z
5a006e7e537b3efefaca4d2e870730ec.jpg


00z
a5a2efab0d44a66665b245b7fbcb774f.jpg


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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Storm5 said:
Stormlover said:
Brent said:
lol at the conflicting posts again
Click to expand...

for real, it's hilarious, some say better, it's another big dog, and others are trashing it....never fails jumping to conclusions.
Click to expand...
it's not a conclusion, it's an opinion . it's fairly simple to get one if you actually compare different runs

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Yes, I'm comparing the 18z GFS, it's about the same. It's going to be another BIG DOG.
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wasn't talking directly to you but glad to know that's what your doing

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At 96 it looks like it starts to try to interact with the Gulf to me. That's another player, if the wave survives enough it can refuel itself with the Gulf.
 
No way this is a trend toward the Euro. This will be 4 straight runs of a big hit from the gfs.

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Well, this run is even further south with the Wintry. This is a case where the NW trend can help many when we get closer. I see ice/mix towards southern ms/al this run so far.
 
Little less on QPF but it will start to gain more as it pushes from west to east, interacting with the warm waters of GOM
 
Notice the shortwave over the upper great lakes, northern stream trying to interact a little bit again at 102 HR. Probably a good thing this isn't amped or we'd risk a phase with a different NS disturbance...

gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png
 
bouncycorn said:
The south trend continues.
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We know if that happens, us 50-150 miles to the North are good to go at verification time.
 
not sure how this isn't a euro trend, more iteration , further south and weaker

check, ch eck ,check

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Shawn said:
Well, this run is even further south with the Wintry.  This is a case where the NW trend can help many when we get closer.  I see ice/mix towards southern ms/al this run so far.
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12z CMC ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Notice the shortwave over the upper great lakes, northern stream trying to interact a little bit again at 102 HR. Probably a good thing this isn't amped or we'd risk a phase with a different NS disturbance...

gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png
Click to expand...


Good call Eric.


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The low hardly forms and the shortwave falls apart. The northern stream takes the energy away early in the run that it needs.
 
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