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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg6379#msg6379 date=1483311572]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
[/quote]
Usually with a Gulf low, there will always be thunder storms down closer to the coastal area's. Sometimes those thunder storms can make it into colder air providing thunder snow. It just depends on the instability. The low should start "bombing" off the coast of the Atlantic.

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[/quote]
Well not exactly generally gulf thunderstorms interrupt moist inflow. Most of the thundersnow cases occurring across the south involved a closed upper low and steep lapse rates

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NorthBamaWeather link said:
Normally any convection along the Gulf Coast chokes off the moisture to the North.
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I'm not sure if the same applies to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast or not. I always hear about people up there wanting the low to bomb, but apparently that's not a good thing for us ?
 
18Z GEFS mean has near one inch of liquid equivalent near Atlanta on Saturday. Still several members with the moisture over the Gulf. Huge improvement in the mean overall though.
 
bouncycorn link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6401#msg6401 date=1483312744]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg6379#msg6379 date=1483311572]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
[/quote]

Mack,
I don't think he is saying he wants a bomb in the Gulf. I think he's just saying that even a very weak low with those warm SST's would produce a lot of QPF. The 18Z GFS has it at 1016 mb per my source. Per history, weak Gulf lows wit this kind of track have been associated with many very wet SE major winter storms with liquid equivalents up to 0.75-1"+ well north of the low in much of the cold sector in sonme cases.

Some history of 1016-18 mb Gulf lows:

1. The great 4" sleetstorm at Atlanta and great snowstorm for much of the Carolinas and far north GA of 1/1988 1/7/1988: 1018 mb
2. Another great 4" sleetstorm at Atlanta and big snow for the Carolinas 2/17-18/1979 1018 mb
3. The great blizzard of Feb. 1899: 2//11-12/1879 1017 mb

Translation:  You don't at all need or even want a strong low while in the Gulf.
[/quote]
Too strong of a low will push too much warm air.


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[/quote]
Not necessarily, it depends on track of low. Even with a weak low you can still get strong WAA.

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E4 would probably be the best for most on this board, except for maybe folks in TN. E4 would bury Montgomery !
 
Today's trends sure look great. Let's see if this holds as we get closer. Major winter storm is possible. I'd say 40% chance at this point for NGA. I would have said 10% this am.
 
RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg6409#msg6409 date=1483313171]
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E4, E5, E20 please. Wonder what could cause those members to have such heavy totals around my area
[/quote]

Most likely freezing rain and sleet, not snow.
 
RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg6409#msg6409 date=1483313171]
2fe9e24ae6ef44c40e54426f43b37a10.jpg



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E4, E5, E20 please. Wonder what could cause those members to have such heavy totals around my area
[/quote]

Most of that would be sleet on the southern edge I would think.
 
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