bouncycorn
Meteorologist
There is agreement though. They all have a miller A. The cmc and euro are suppressed though
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DadOfJax link said:[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6347#msg6347 date=1483309691]
There we go folks, we have model agreement.
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NorthGAWinterWx link said:[quote author=DadOfJax link=topic=80.msg6387#msg6387 date=1483311781]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6347#msg6347 date=1483309691]
There we go folks, we have model agreement.
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Wrong storm system. Shows some other system though that gives some snow.bouncycorn link said:NAVGEM has a major cutter though lol
Tarheel1 link said:[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6389#msg6389 date=1483311871]
[quote author=DadOfJax link=topic=80.msg6387#msg6387 date=1483311781]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6347#msg6347 date=1483309691]
There we go folks, we have model agreement.
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I was going to agree with you Larry. That would be a huge hit here of ZR. My guess is it would be even colder than modeled but let's not get ahead of ourselves. LolGaWx link said:Per the 18Z GFS, this would be the biggest sleetstorm for the city of ATL and south metro ATL since the great 1988 4" mainly sleetstorm..even bigger than 2/2014 for most except maybe the northern burbs. It appears that this major sleet would get down to Tony in south metro ATL and even further south per 850's being colder than +3 C. Macon would likely get a major ZR out of this as modeled. Of course, this is just per what the model shows, not a prediction.
That screams massive ice storm for me and you ShawnShawn link said:Not wanting any kind of "bomb" until crossing over Florida. Already bad enough as it is modeled from 18z for us down here. Waiting until Florida cross to rapidly strengthen will help everyone involved in the Carolinas.
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,lowTarheel1 link said:[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low.
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Is the 18z run usually not a reliable run ? Should we toss it ?MiddleTNWx link said:That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
Is the 18z run usually not a reliable run ? Should we toss it ?SoutheastRidge link said:[quote author=MiddleTNWx link=topic=80.msg6374#msg6374 date=1483311361]
That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,lowTarheel1 link said:[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low.
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I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,lowGaWx link said:[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg6379#msg6379 date=1483311572]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low.
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That screams massive ice storm for me and you ShawnDeltadog03 link said:[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg6385#msg6385 date=1483311675]
Not wanting any kind of "bomb" until crossing over Florida. Already bad enough as it is modeled from 18z for us down here. Waiting until Florida cross to rapidly strengthen will help everyone involved in the Carolinas.
Is the 18z run usually not a reliable run ? Should we toss it ?SoutheastRidge link said:[quote author=MiddleTNWx link=topic=80.msg6374#msg6374 date=1483311361]
That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,lowTarheel1 link said:[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low.
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