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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Some good ones in there.

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SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg6351#msg6351 date=1483310020]
Brrrr Atlanta area.
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That makes no sense to me. It's showing 12 near Atlanta then 21 east of Atlanta and 24 west of Atlanta and 18 north of Atlanta. According to that map, Atlanta will be the coldest place in the entire southeast. And it can't be because of snowpack because it would be mostly ice in Atlanta with more snow north of Atlanta.
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It doesn't really either, but it just looked interesting. However, if temperatures like that occurred, it would probably be spread out and warmer, not isolated.
 
To show what a change we have seen over the last 6 hours of the GFS runs Here is a surface depiction of the SE at hour 144 from 12z vs current 18z output
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Per the 18Z GFS, this would be the biggest sleetstorm for the city of ATL and south metro ATL since the great 1988 4" mainly sleetstorm..even bigger than 2/2014 for most except maybe the northern burbs. It appears that this major sleet would get down to Tony in south metro ATL and even further south per 850's being colder than +3 C. Macon would likely get a major ZR out of this as modeled. Of course, this is just per what the model shows, not a prediction.
 
I do note that the ice accumulation ends just to my eaast.  I have seen it play out that we have to be watched for icings in Auburn.
 
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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Watching these models have given me some grey hairs this past week! While the details are unknown, it appears to me that models are trying to come to a consensus that some parts of the southeast will have moisture and cold temps next weekend. Lots more model watching ahead...
 
That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
 
lol...I'm busy doing other things and YET AGAIN...a mic drop model run happens.

I may need to disappear for a few days for this to work out but this is really giving me vibes of February 2014...IF it happens and that was a significant southeast winter storm.
 
I'm starting to love that we have some model agreement 5 days out. Starting to look now like the chances for winter weather will start to tick up now.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
 
I'm gonna enjoy the next 6 hours until this turns into Suppression City or Cutterville. My lord.


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Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
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I agree you start getting gulf thunderstorms and it will rob the moisture.
 
Not wanting any kind of "bomb" until crossing over Florida.  Already bad enough as it is modeled from 18z for us down here.  Waiting until Florida cross to rapidly strengthen will help everyone involved in the Carolinas.
 
MiddleTNWx link said:
That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
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The GFS had something like this before over the weekend or it was this past Fri. I think it was. This 18z GFS run is an huge improvement. Also, the 18z GFS agreed with 12z CMC and 12z Euro.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
There we go folks, we have model agreement.

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LOL...No, no we don't. Let the models show this for 3 or 4 runs, then you have agreement.
 
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