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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

I can't download my profile picture from Tapatalk for the life of me. Every time I try it says download failed. I checked other sites to make sure it wasn't Tapatalk and they worked fine so it's definitely southern wx. My profile picture comes out sideways when trying to Download from the site instead of Tapatalk.


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Now I know how Ronda Rousey felt on Friday. You see the punch coming and there isn't a thing you can do to stop it
 
SD said:
Now I know how Ronda Rousey felt on Friday. You see the punch coming and there isn't a thing you can do to stop it
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Atleast we had more than 48 seconds of excitement.
 
Yea that's a big shift. A few models thus far have gone more towards the Euro, hopefully the infusion of some upper air data into this tomorrow will give us a better idea of what the northern stream disturbance is doing and its one of the only legitimate shots we have of reversing this trend, we saw what happened this trough over the Pacific NW was sampled over the southern Yukon earlier this past week, granted we probably won't see that kind of change here, but you get the point. oth, the Euro solution really isn't too bad, at least over the Carolinas, and it's dangerously close to something formidable over more of the SE US. As I mentioned earlier, issues with isentropic lifting will be another major stumbling block guidance will have to contend with even inside day 2-3... 

18z NAM

namconus_z500_vort_us_47.png


0z NAM

namconus_z500_vort_us_45.png
 
I sure wouldn't put much stock into the NAM 4-5 days out

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I don't know but to me this NAM run just looked wonky.... maybe it's a trend but looks like trash to me. Channeling my inner JB, garbage in garbage out
 
ARCC said:
Come on y'all, its still four days out. This ain't supposed to fall apart until day three.
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Good to see ya :)!  Yea....i will give it another day or two before I cliff dive....with a parachute that is :p
 
Why are some much panic in the nam espically at the long range part of the nam.. No panics guys
 
The NAM is pretty unreliable outside of 48 hours but the issue is...the Euro has been showing the northern stream being too strong and shearing out this wave too much for the Gulf to be able to recover it for several runs.

Gotta hope that the Euro is at least a little out to lunch. Y'all did say that the system looked very close to releasing before it just got too sheared out on it's latest run (a while ago now). So maybe it is able to make it in a future run.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yea that's a big shift. A few models thus far have gone more towards the Euro, hopefully the infusion of some upper air data into this tomorrow will give us a better idea of what the northern stream disturbance is doing and its one of the only legitimate shots we have of reversing this trend, we saw what happened this trough over the Pacific NW was sampled over the southern Yukon earlier this past week, granted we probably won't see that kind of change here, but you get the point. oth, the Euro solution really isn't too bad, at least over the Carolinas, and it's dangerously close to something formidable over more of the SE US. As I mentioned earlier, issues with isentropic lifting will be another major stumbling block guidance will have to contend with even inside day 2-3... 

18z NAM

namconus_z500_vort_us_47.png


0z NAM

namconus_z500_vort_us_45.png
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The NAM itself doesnt run out to 4-5 days, after 84 HR it becomes the DGEX and we know that model is lol
 
Btw guys, the multi quote system is currently not working (and likelly wont) in the quick reply box. When you hit "reply" on someones post, it will take you to a new post screen and work.
 
True the system is still 3 to 4 days out but the energy interaction is the key and that happens around hour 48. so it's not smart to just dismiss runs. that don't show us what we won't the important part to all this starts within 2 days

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metwannabe said:
I don't know but to me this NAM run just looked wonky.... maybe it's a trend but looks like trash to me. Channeling my inner JB, garbage in garbage out
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What looked wonky to you?


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It does/should just at least make you think its possible that outcome happens...I look at the H5 map and its like...hmmmm...I have ever really seen energy stretch out like that before? I mean, I can't remember seeing a H5 map like that with the energy...I prob have and don't remember.
 
Shawn said:
Btw guys, the multi quote system is currently not working (and likelly wont) in the quick reply box.  When you hit "reply" on someones post, it will take you to a new post screen and work.
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Aha....  that explains it.  Thanks
 
metwannabe, couldn't quote your post for some reason, but someone at the there board said the same thing about that NAM run.
 
The NAM at 66 just looked strange and unrealistic. The heights are flattened out and I think you see both our system and the northern stream fused together then. Does it even start coming down from there in the rest of the NAM?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The "panic" is in the shorter range of the NAM where it's actually reliable (< 48 HR)....
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bingo , sometime wishcasting overtakes reality

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whatalife said:
metwannabe said:
I don't know but to me this NAM run just looked wonky....  maybe it's a trend but looks like trash to me.  Channeling my inner JB, garbage in garbage out
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What looked wonky to you?


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I didn't like it Lol.... no seeing such a strong s/w intact @48 then elongated and just stretched apart so quickly, idk I'm no met just the overall look so drastically different and it's the NAM
 
Isn't the problem here that more models are starting to agree with one solution (EURO) vs the NAMS reliability? If the GFS was the one against us getting a storm, would we still be putting stock into it?
 
metwannabe said:
whatalife said:
metwannabe said:
I don't know but to me this NAM run just looked wonky....  maybe it's a trend but looks like trash to me.  Channeling my inner JB, garbage in garbage out
Click to expand...


What looked wonky to you?


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I didn't like it Lol.... no seeing such a strong s/w intact @48 then elongated and just stretched apart so quickly, idk I'm no met just the overall look so drastically different and it's the NAM
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It does become very elongated that's for sure.


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Webberweather53 said:
The "panic" is in the shorter range of the NAM where it's actually reliable (< 48 HR)....
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Agree and during the first 48hrs it wasn't as good as before but wasn't horrible either, definitely more Euro like but then after that just gets obliterated
 
I could go through lot of history suprise NC hits bigger than forecast due to isentrophic lifting like webber alluded to, but we can save that till the Thurs , Friday discussions. Just another card to play, argue for more snow after it gets established precisely what we are dealing with.


Caution don't think the euro has every thing pegged precisely to the exact point 5 days out. It'll have some more tweaks itself. Think ukmet is where all this ends up at when the smoke settles if u put a gun to my head right now.
 
I will say this...the NAM is doing an absolutely AWFUL job right now in the short term. Does it mean anything? Heck IDK.... the 6 hour rain totals.. (0z to 6z) so about another 3 hours worth...it has me only getting maybe .30" of rain at most....I am at .85" since 6pm or so.... storm total just over 6"
 
Bsudweather said:
I sure wouldn't put much stock into the NAM 4-5 days out

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Yup, me either

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Storm5 said:
Webberweather53 said:
The "panic" is in the shorter range of the NAM where it's actually reliable (< 48 HR)....
Click to expand...
bingo , sometime wishcasting overtakes reality

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Click to expand...

I'd agree with you, and I'm not necessarily wishcasting, but can you define "reliable" within 48 hours?

Of course, the current guidance is all we have to go by at this point, and this is what the NAM is showing. We'll see how much it changes over the next few runs, but since this was a massive change from the prior runs, I'm more inclined to follow other runs to see how much they agree before giving more credence to this solution.
 
NCSNOW said:
I could go through lot of history suprise NC hits bigger than forecast due to isentrophic lifting like webber alluded to, but we can save that till the Thurs , Friday discussions. Just another card to play, argue for more snow after it gets established precisely what we are dealing with.


Caution don't think the euro has every thing pegged precisely to the exact point 5 days out. It'll have some more tweaks itself. Think ukmet is where all this ends up at when the smoke settles if u put a gun to my head right now.

I'll see your isentropic lift and raise you Gulf convection! :p
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We better hope the models ingest some data tonight to change the trend. Because right now, it doesn't look good for us. I will not throw in the towel on this one just yet. However, if the GFS shows a Euro-like solution tonight, it might be time to call in the dogs.
 
I disabled the "quick reply" until we get the multi-quote system fixed so users won't have problems.  Just hit the "New Reply" button instead if you're on the website/PC. ::) You can still click reply on someone's post and it will quote.
 
The reason why we shouldn't rely on the NAM is because the time frame that the low actually drops, the NAM obviously doesn't go that far out.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Bsudweather said:
I sure wouldn't put much stock into the NAM 4-5 days out

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Yup, me either

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It's not 4 or 5 days out. Its within 48 hours of the potential s/w interaction with the northern stream...so very much in the wheelhouse of the NAM...especially since it looks almost identical to the Euro. People here with decent (or more) knowledge has said this all day....the Euro is king for a reason, and I have a good feeling we are about to be reminded why.
 
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