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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

tellicowx link said:
Miss anything with the 18z run?

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Just your usual 18z foolishness!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=80.msg6427#msg6427 date=1483314037]
Miss anything with the 18z run?

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Just your usual 18z foolishness!
[/quote]
18z has a major winter  storm miller A.


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Being 5 or so days out really sucks because so much can go wrong. I just hope these next few days go by fast so we can hurry up to next weekend.
 
bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=RollTide18 link=topic=80.msg6425#msg6425 date=1483313870]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg6409#msg6409 date=1483313171]
2fe9e24ae6ef44c40e54426f43b37a10.jpg



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E4, E5, E20 please. Wonder what could cause those members to have such heavy totals around my area
[/quote]

Most of that would be sleet on the southern edge I would think.
[/quote]
not necessarily always the case....if the track is over the central gulf, that places those areas in the north and west quad...it could be depicting snowfall as well

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There is no such thing as an unreliable run. It depends on past runs, cause some past runs will agree with future runs. Also, it depends on other models. If they agree on similarities of another model, it doesn't make the run unreliable.

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For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
 
ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6432#msg6432 date=1483314306]
Being 5 or so days out really sucks because so much can go wrong. I just hope these next few days go by fast so we can hurry up to next weekend.
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Far better than the eleven, when we first saw this storm!
[/quote] Well yeah, at least we are getting closer to whatever happens whether its rain, snow, or nothing. Anything but cold and dry, that's the worst !!!!!
 
GaWx link said:
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
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What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
 
getting close to a big run...give it about another 24 hrs.

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modelwatcher link said:
16/20 18Z GEFS members have snow for Atlanta next weekend. Cash out now please?
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Maybe we should just all take the week off from this forum so that our hopes are not smashed and we just assume what the models are showing today will be the end result.
 
That's one of the sweetest gefs runs I've ever seen. Several that crush central and south central Alabama. Awesome mean!
 
I'm about to go live on my Facebook weather page, called North Georgia Winter Weather Information. Come on by and say hi and ask me questions.

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SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
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What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
 
Ensembles have been dancing around this idea for days now...and the OPs have been kinda playing out like they used too. Cutter, then suppress /shred it, then start merging into a solution around day 4. I remember the Christmas storm, talk weather was going nuts with cliff divers cause the OPs were all going to Cuba and shredding it. I believe it was Shane who said give it time then. I'm getting older and my memory isn't what it used to be, but this seems to repeat itself when models are trying to deal with a Miller A track.

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GaWx link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6438#msg6438 date=1483314574]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
[/quote] Does it show for Dahlonega or is Gainesville the closest city it shows ?
 
GaWx link said:
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
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I take it that the zr has been relegated to the south. Towards Macon/Augusta?
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6445#msg6445 date=1483314982]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6438#msg6438 date=1483314574]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
[/quote] Does it show for Dahlonega or is Gainesville the closest city it shows ?
[/quote]

GVL is closest. You'd be all snow and would get ~5" per maps.
 
this question is for SD preferably but anyone can answer it. What do you think about the s/w out in pacific? Will it come out properly or get sucked into the low in pacific and it ends up being northern stream dominance? Isnt that the key to if a system happens or not? Thanks kevin
 
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