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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

NForsythWX link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
I take it that the zr has been relegated to the south. Towards Macon/Augusta?
[/quote]

Yes, I think so. Maybe south ATL burbs would get some ZR but I think even Tony (Dsaur) would be in heaven with mainly his favorite, sleet.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=NForsythWX link=topic=80.msg6448#msg6448 date=1483315314]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
I take it that the zr has been relegated to the south. Towards Macon/Augusta?
[/quote]

Yes, I think so. Maybe south ATL burbs would get some ZR but I think even Tony (Dsaur) would be in heaven with mainly his favorite, sleet.
[/quote]
Ya I would think ZR possibly around these parts
 
So in all seriousness how likely is a solution like this to actually happen?
 
Mrgolf link said:
this question is for SD preferably but anyone can answer it. What do you think about the s/w out in pacific? Will it come out properly or get sucked into the low in pacific and it ends up being northern stream dominance? Isnt that the key to if a system happens or not? Thanks kevin
Click to expand...
It's the key. It's hard to say what happens with it.  The pattern with the closed ridge can favor it getting tucked under it and not ejecting. It's so touch and go it's a coin flip

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6438#msg6438 date=1483314574]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
[/quote]

I'm sorry I've been away and came back to read this and was like WOW. When is this for? Thanks
 
NForsythWX link said:
So in all seriousness how likely is a solution like this to actually happen?
Click to expand...

Considering how often something verifies well 6 days out when models don't agree and are jumping so much from run to run and considering that a major winter storm (SN, IP, and/or ZR) doesn't hit the ATL metro area but about once every 2 years on average, the chances of a major storm like this on 1/7 has to be well under 50% for ATL at this still early point. Too many possible scenarios to not be. If you were to be able to look at all of the major storms modeled for ATL 6 days out especially with the models not agreeing and the runs jumping around, i'm confident that the % that ended up being major there were way under 50% with many heartbreaks. So, don't get your hopes up too high and just hope it verifies.

Edit: However, I have been saying that there's a good chance for a major ZR or IP in Atlanta at some point this winter due to NN ENSO.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Mrgolf link=topic=80.msg6450#msg6450 date=1483315583]
this question is for SD preferably but anyone can answer it. What do you think about the s/w out in pacific? Will it come out properly or get sucked into the low in pacific and it ends up being northern stream dominance? Isnt that the key to if a system happens or not? Thanks kevin
Click to expand...
It's the key. It's hard to say what happens with it.  The pattern with the closed ridge can favor it getting tucked under it and not ejecting. It's so touch and go it's a coin flip

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk


[/quote]

SD, what do u think ultimately happens or is it that close that its that tricky? Can it avoid getting tucked under closed ridge? We know if it comes out later, it will have time to warm up by then most likley
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6445#msg6445 date=1483314982]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6438#msg6438 date=1483314574]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
[/quote]

I'm sorry I've been away and came back to read this and was like WOW. When is this for? Thanks
[/quote]

Per the 18Z GFS, there is about an 18 hour long winter storm on 1/7. Cumming would get ~6" of mainly snow with some sleet mixing in.
 
Models aren't handling p-type well. Just looked at some GFS soundings from several locations where ptype = zr but the soundings are almost all IP/SN.
 
Mrgolf link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6454#msg6454 date=1483316162]
[quote author=Mrgolf link=topic=80.msg6450#msg6450 date=1483315583]
this question is for SD preferably but anyone can answer it. What do you think about the s/w out in pacific? Will it come out properly or get sucked into the low in pacific and it ends up being northern stream dominance? Isnt that the key to if a system happens or not? Thanks kevin
Click to expand...
It's the key. It's hard to say what happens with it.  The pattern with the closed ridge can favor it getting tucked under it and not ejecting. It's so touch and go it's a coin flip

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk


[/quote]

SD, what do u think ultimately happens or is it that close that its that tricky? Can it avoid getting tucked under closed ridge? We know if it comes out later, it will have time to warm up by then most likley
[/quote]
It's really a coin flip. I think it ejects but there is a chance it's delayed or doesn't kick. At this point I'm waiting for model consensus bc I don't know

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
NForsythWX link said:
So in all seriousness how likely is a solution like this to actually happen?
Click to expand...
It's possible, the last good winter event was in 2014. So, it's been a while since we had a major event.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=80.msg6455#msg6455 date=1483316656]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6445#msg6445 date=1483314982]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6438#msg6438 date=1483314574]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
[/quote]

I'm sorry I've been away and came back to read this and was like WOW. When is this for? Thanks
[/quote]

Per the 18Z GFS, there is about an 18 hour long winter storm on 1/7. Cumming would get ~6" of mainly snow with some sleet mixing in.
[/quote]

Wow! Thank you, Larry! Too bad it's still 6 days away. So very much can still change. BTW, is this a CAD influenced storm?
 
6.4 inches at Huntsville per Cobb algorithm
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_khsv.dat
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=NForsythWX link=topic=80.msg6453#msg6453 date=1483315969]


So in all seriousness how likely is a solution like this to actually happen?
Click to expand...
It's possible, the last good winter event was in 2014. So, it's been a while since we had a major event.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Not sure what your criteria is for a good winter event is but the 2/16/15 icestorm that affected NC/NE GA was our biggest icestorm since 12/05.
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6458#msg6458 date=1483317027]
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=80.msg6455#msg6455 date=1483316656]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6445#msg6445 date=1483314982]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6438#msg6438 date=1483314574]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
[/quote]

I'm sorry I've been away and came back to read this and was like WOW. When is this for? Thanks
[/quote]

Per the 18Z GFS, there is about an 18 hour long winter storm on 1/7. Cumming would get ~6" of mainly snow with some sleet mixing in.
[/quote]

Wow! Thank you, Larry! Too bad it's still 6 days away. So very much can still change. BTW, is this a CAD influenced storm?
[/quote]
It's really only 3-4 days out, for the first wave for Carolinas!
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6461#msg6461 date=1483317210]
[quote author=NForsythWX link=topic=80.msg6453#msg6453 date=1483315969]


So in all seriousness how likely is a solution like this to actually happen?
Click to expand...
It's possible, the last good winter event was in 2014. So, it's been a while since we had a major event.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Not sure what your criteria is for a good winter event is but the 2/16/15 icestorm that affected NC/NE GA was our biggest icestorm since 12/05.
[/quote]
I remember that one. The snowjam happened in Feb. of 2014, that's when ATL shut down. That's when you know it's major. Major meaning, a board wide winter event across the southeast.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Sooo many possible outcomes for sure, but winter cold is coming for sure.  A few thoughts on latest runs.

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/
 
I don't think Atlanta has had anything wintry other than maybe a few flurries or sleet pellets in almost 3 years.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=80.msg6464#msg6464 date=1483318099]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6461#msg6461 date=1483317210]
[quote author=NForsythWX link=topic=80.msg6453#msg6453 date=1483315969]


So in all seriousness how likely is a solution like this to actually happen?
Click to expand...
It's possible, the last good winter event was in 2014. So, it's been a while since we had a major event.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Not sure what your criteria is for a good winter event is but the 2/16/15 icestorm that affected NC/NE GA was our biggest icestorm since 12/05.
[/quote]
I remember that one. The snowjam happened in Feb. of 2014, that's when ATL shut down. That's when you know it's major.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Actually it was 1/29/14 fwiw
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
I don't think Atlanta has had anything wintry other than maybe a few flurries or sleet pellets in almost 3 years.
Click to expand...
2014 I believe

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
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