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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7575#msg7575 date=1483395213]
Im sure Chris in Macon, GA is gonna like this run... Awfully close call for south-central GA
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yes sir!  lol...not saying this is right, but IMHO more believable than the 12z run....this honestly isn't that far off from what the CMC and EURO are showing..
[/quote]
If we had the Ukie more detailed I think this is close to what it would be. You're right tho, CMC and Euro are not far off this solution.

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Deltadog03 link said:
Colder here...going to be a big ice storm around here...GFS has me at or below 35 12hrs prior then near or below 32 once precipitation starts.
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Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7575#msg7575 date=1483395213]
Im sure Chris in Macon, GA is gonna like this run... Awfully close call for south-central GA
Click to expand...

yes sir!  lol...not saying this is right, but IMHO more believable than the 12z run....this honestly isn't that far off from what the CMC and EURO are showing..
[/quote]

lol I dont blame you, but yea the difference between the models is so subtle... IMO, best option is to go somewhere in the middle, close to the UKMET which is essentially a blend of the GFS & ECMWF atm
 
metwannabe link said:
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning.  Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs.  Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong.  Model watch responsibly
Click to expand...
Yep a little interaction is fine and will do some members some good. The 0z and 12z euro hinted at separation down around the 4 corners but never did it. I think interaction is unavoidable given the proximity of the wave to the NS.

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Weaker doesn't really bother me at all, I could care less for ice so I'd like to see a weaker solution, but not so weak that the storm doesn't happen at all.

I'd really like for it to be later in the week. Like, I'd freeze this run and take it as the winter storm here and be fine for the winter.
 
I think some saying it was a huge step to the Euro are over exaggerating it.
 
I believe the Euro is showing a little of its bias, but that's just me. Learned a long time ago....watch the UKMET during the winter...for whatever reason, a lot of times it foreshadows the Euro.

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SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7617#msg7617 date=1483396035]
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning.  Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs.  Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong.  Model watch responsibly
Click to expand...
Yep a little interaction is fine and will do some members some good. The 0z and 12z euro hinted at separation down around the 4 corners but never did it. I think interaction is unavoidable given the proximity of the wave to the NS.

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[/quote]

Totally agree about the interaction as long as they just dance and don't hook up
 
Brick Tamland link said:
I think some saying it was a huge step to the Euro are over exaggerating it.
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Not a huge step to it at all.  Just watch 500mb and make sure we don't see more shearing vs Euro bending to the GFS is all we can do though.  UKMET might not be far off.  Wish we had better maps.
 
Well, if that was a step to the Euro, and the Euro comes a step to the GFS which is still showing a big storm, then not sure what is bad about that.
 
Someone post gefs snow map when it comes out please, thanks
 
Brick Tamland link said:
I think some saying it was a huge step to the Euro are over exaggerating it.
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mote stream interaction . it was a lean towards the euro in that regards

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Webberweather53 link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg7613#msg7613 date=1483395989]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7575#msg7575 date=1483395213]
Im sure Chris in Macon, GA is gonna like this run... Awfully close call for south-central GA
Click to expand...

yes sir!  lol...not saying this is right, but IMHO more believable than the 12z run....this honestly isn't that far off from what the CMC and EURO are showing..
[/quote]

lol I dont blame you, but yea the difference between the models is so subtle... IMO, best option is to go somewhere in the middle, close to the UKMET which is essentially a blend of the GFS & ECMWF atm
[/quote]
Agreed!
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7617#msg7617 date=1483396035]
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning.  Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs.  Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong.  Model watch responsibly
Click to expand...
Yep a little interaction is fine and will do some members some good. The 0z and 12z euro hinted at separation down around the 4 corners but never did it. I think interaction is unavoidable given the proximity of the wave to the NS.

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[/quote]
Very true...there will be some interaction for sure...I really don't think the euro is that far off from what the GFS shows...EURO should have more qpf inland
 
UKMET z500 & SLP @ 96 HR, sort of a compromise between GFS & ECMWF. I'd take this in a heartbeat. 1004mb low 100 miles or so offshore isn't bad for eastern NC

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif
 
I used to have the study saved on my old phone...in these setups, the UKMET tends to have the highest verification scores and better lead time, than the Euro or GFS. But it rarely gets watched or mentioned.

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Webberweather53 link said:
UKMET z500 & SLP @ 96 HR, sort of a compromise between GFS & ECMWF. I'd take this in a heartbeat. 1004mb low 100 miles or so offshore isn't bad for eastern NC

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif
Click to expand...
UKMET hasn't been wavering like the other two the last few days either....I think that look is where they will meet at honestly.

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Webber, when will this system enter the ROAB?

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I honestly think the euro will start going a bit towards less total interaction...its been showing/hinting at that the last few runs.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7617#msg7617 date=1483396035]
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning.  Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs.  Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong.  Model watch responsibly
Click to expand...
Yep a little interaction is fine and will do some members some good. The 0z and 12z euro hinted at separation down around the 4 corners but never did it. I think interaction is unavoidable given the proximity of the wave to the NS.

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[/quote]

Casa de Rain Cold likes this one!  I would absolutely not be shocked to see the system all but vanish tonight/tomorrow and then pop back up on Thursday.
 
Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7626#msg7626 date=1483396284]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7617#msg7617 date=1483396035]
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning.  Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs.  Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong.  Model watch responsibly
Click to expand...
Yep a little interaction is fine and will do some members some good. The 0z and 12z euro hinted at separation down around the 4 corners but never did it. I think interaction is unavoidable given the proximity of the wave to the NS.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Casa de Rain Cold likes this one!  I would absolutely not be shocked to see the system all but vanish tonight/tomorrow and then pop back up on Thursday.
[/quote]
Our Casas are in a good spot...even on the underwhelming euro/cmc

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Where in NW Alabama are you?  I'm here in Dora and do not know how that much about the weather.  When you post, please remember me and what will happen in my area.  Thanks.
 
SD link said:
Ukmet 500mb at 72hr nice separation

182e808786a0471d34d19ddfd9c66697.gif


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Click to expand...
Oh yeah now that's more like it.  Ukmet does very well in these interaction scenarios

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7646#msg7646 date=1483397118]
Ukmet 500mb at 72hr nice separation

182e808786a0471d34d19ddfd9c66697.gif


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Click to expand...
Oh yeah now that's more like it.  Ukmet does very well in these interaction scenarios

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[/quote]
Just for comparison here is the euro
d8c14ceb2ba2270a9537552d22938718.gif


And 18z gfs
59795bebcee04f4c7f9cc3ce2554d332.jpg


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tellicowx link said:
Webber, when will this system enter the ROAB?

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Click to expand...

The northern stream wave will be entering the north america upper air network at 6-12z tomorrow, and the data should be ingested into the models by 0z Tue Night/Wed
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=80.msg7650#msg7650 date=1483397322]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7626#msg7626 date=1483396284]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7617#msg7617 date=1483396035]
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning.  Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs.  Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong.  Model watch responsibly
Click to expand...
Yep a little interaction is fine and will do some members some good. The 0z and 12z euro hinted at separation down around the 4 corners but never did it. I think interaction is unavoidable given the proximity of the wave to the NS.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk


[/quote]

Casa de Rain Cold likes this one!  I would absolutely not be shocked to see the system all but vanish tonight/tomorrow and then pop back up on Thursday.
[/quote]
Our Casas are in a good spot...even on the underwhelming euro/cmc

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[/quote]

Met will be in the sweet spot as usual.


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Ron Burgundy link said:
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=80.msg7641#msg7641 date=1483396793]
Still no update from FFC. Hmm....
Click to expand...
I imagine they're preoccupied with the severe threat at present.
[/quote]
I noticed that too....very late for them.
 
ARCC link said:
Haha its been a long time since I've been dead center of a weenie run. Too bad its still four days out.
Click to expand...

You took the words right out of my mouth arcc.
 
ghost1 link said:
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=80.msg7609#msg7609 date=1483395929]
i got the shaft on that run
Click to expand...
Me too bud... what's the deal on NE MS and NW AL?  Dry nose?
[/quote]
i really wouldnt worry right now. these systems usually trend northwest. we still in a good spot
 
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