• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Shawn link said:
Rofl, is that a 1063 High on the JMA?  Anyway looks like the Low takes a Northern FL track to off SC/NC per JMA.
Click to expand...

It sure is, Shawn. However, despite the very cold strong high,  the center is way too far west to get it cold enough in the SE when this system comes through the SE on 1/6. This JMA run is a good example. We're much better off with a high (that doesn't even need to be nearly this strong) that has a center much further east. RaleighWx had (and still may have) a great climo of big NC snowstorms with both low AND high mean tracks.
 
Wow, 11 of them are pretty good hits here.
gefs_snow_ens_nc_65.thumb.png.abac30fbf025de9a9bcec9dd25de3986.png
 
^Holy cow at e12!! A very large percentage of this board would get hammered. Is that a snow and ice combo? Anyone know? Of course this is going out 384 hours and may be incorporating something way out in fantasyland.
 
The high should be coming right after that low, it should not stay further west. This is when the 12z GFS and 12z DGEX come into play, cause it shows more of a realistic placement of high. Most of the time, highs do come after lows specially if there is deep, deep cold air and we are seeing that. This is why I like to use a blend of other models.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Wow, 11 of them are pretty good hits here.
Click to expand...

I'd be a betting man that we here in the Midlands of SC don't want member 12 (likely lots of zr).  The mean doesn't look too shabby, again though.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
Heck even parts of FL would get 6-12" from E12.
Click to expand...

Or that could be mainly ZR/IP since these clown maps don't distinguish. I'd like to know if this is from a way out in fantasyland storm.
 
GaWx link said:
^Holy cow at e12!! A very large percentage of this board would get hammered. Is that a snow and ice combo? Anyone know? Of course this is going out 384 hours and may be incorporating something way out in fantasyland.
Click to expand...
this is through day ten.....the above includes a late storm
353c19b31b391b5f596565eb609de90a.jpg

Webberweather53 link said:
Would be nice to have a NOAA research plane flying out into the north-central Pacific into this ULL to provide some adequate upper air observations, because this poorly sampled ULL and attendant northeast Pacific Rex block over Alaska are largely to blame for most of our problems in this week's forecast and the huge run-to-run variability in the models. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see another unanimous & quite significant shift in the guidance in ~4 days once this disturbance is properly sampled over the US. Of course, by then we wouldn't really have much time left to speculate on its future... The northern stream system that could provide a shot of wintry wx to the Carolinas and perhaps even the middle Atlantic late this week won't enter the North American upper air network until later on Tuesday. We have a *very* long ways to go with these  threats this week and into the following week and we likely won't be much closer to figuring any of this out for another 2-3 days... :/

ecmwf_z500_vort_west3_13-1024x768.png



gfs_z500_vort_west4_13-1024x768.png


Screen-Shot-2017-01-01-at-1.57.07-PM-1024x659.png
Click to expand...


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
GaWx link said:
^Holy cow at e12!! A very large percentage of this board would get hammered. Is that a snow and ice combo? Anyone know? Of course this is going out 384 hours and may be incorporating something way out in fantasyland.
Click to expand...
I thought I read this year that they fixed the Euro ice as snow problem over the summer, that caused the insane Euro clown maps, but not 109% sure!?
 
Just a heads up, many of those members, including 12, have the snow falling at like hr 384.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6238#msg6238 date=1483299323]
Heck even parts of FL would get 6-12" from E12.
Click to expand...

Or that could be mainly ZR/IP since these clown maps don't distinguish. I'd like to know if this is from a way out in fantasyland storm.
[/quote]
the ones through 384 include a huge storm in the 14-16 day period. not this coming week

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6235#msg6235 date=1483299186]
^Holy cow at e12!! A very large percentage of this board would get hammered. Is that a snow and ice combo? Anyone know? Of course this is going out 384 hours and may be incorporating something way out in fantasyland.
Click to expand...
I thought I read this year that they fixed the Euro ice as snow problem over the summer, that caused the insane Euro clown maps, but not 109% sure!?
[/quote]

I think they have for the most part.  The GFS still seems to be zr as snow though.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6241#msg6241 date=1483299492]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6238#msg6238 date=1483299323]
Heck even parts of FL would get 6-12" from E12.
Click to expand...

Or that could be mainly ZR/IP since these clown maps don't distinguish. I'd like to know if this is from a way out in fantasyland storm.
[/quote]
the ones through 384 include a huge storm in the 14-16 day period. not this coming week

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Thanks, Storm5. I was hoping that wasn't the case but was sort of expecting it because an historical storm like that within the next 10 days seems too good to be true. Oh well, forget about that fantasy for now.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6241#msg6241 date=1483299492]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6238#msg6238 date=1483299323]
Heck even parts of FL would get 6-12" from E12.
Click to expand...

Or that could be mainly ZR/IP since these clown maps don't distinguish. I'd like to know if this is from a way out in fantasyland storm.
[/quote]
the ones through 384 include a huge storm in the 14-16 day period. not this coming week

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Even better, back to back threats!
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6245#msg6245 date=1483299585]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6241#msg6241 date=1483299492]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6238#msg6238 date=1483299323]
Heck even parts of FL would get 6-12" from E12.
Click to expand...

Or that could be mainly ZR/IP since these clown maps don't distinguish. I'd like to know if this is from a way out in fantasyland storm.
[/quote]
the ones through 384 include a huge storm in the 14-16 day period. not this coming week

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Even better, back to back threats!
[/quote]

The 14-16 day period is superfantasyland. However, IF the EPS happens to have a decent clue on where the MJO is headed this time, a return of prevailing cold near mid month would at least be supported by the MJO. With that, maybe there'd be a widespread SE US threat of something wintry mid month. Who knows at this very early point in the month? Who's to say that when this month is done that we look back and see that we were teased around 1/6-9 but got the real thing around 1/15? Way stranger things have occurred in the wacky world of wx.
 
Reminds me a lot of Jan 2000 when we had a couple of minor events before the big one.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top