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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

I wouldn't be too worried about the Northern lack of precip at this point

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg6209#msg6209 date=1483295829]
Too warm? This run is suppressed... Again... but big differences from 00z, which essentially cut through central ga.
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This isn't suppressed....it's almost the exact track you want for a board wide event

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[/quote]

Perfect track, indeed! But the moisture is suppressed by the block, no? That's why most areas get no precip.
 
The track is nearly ideal. It would probably have more precip inland. Just needs to be a bit colder. This run would be a step in the right direction IMHO
 
cmc ensembles look juicy
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I wouldn't worry about the precip being suppressed on the 12z Euro. The CMC has the low further closer to the coast. We should start to see more of a NW track on the Euro and colder.

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Deltadog03 link said:
The track is nearly ideal. It would probably have more precip inland. Just needs to be a bit colder. This run would be a step in the right direction IMHO
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Yeah, this is a great low track. If we could keep this low track and also bring the center of the cold high more eastward and more quickly toward the Midwest (this adjustment in later runs is quite realistic imo) there would be more cold air already getting established into more of the SE in advance and then working together with the low. That's my take anyway. But RaleighWx's climo for big NC snowstorms also does agree.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg6215#msg6215 date=1483296145]
The track is nearly ideal. It would probably have more precip inland. Just needs to be a bit colder. This run would be a step in the right direction IMHO
Click to expand...

Yeah, this is a great low track. If we could keep this low track and also bring the center of the cold high more eastward and more quickly toward the Midwest (this adjustment in later runs is quite realistic imo) there would be more cold air already getting established into more of the SE in advance and then working together with the low. That's my take anyway. But RaleighWx's climo for big NC snowstorms also does agree.
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I agree Larry. I would want the high further east as well. I agree with you, I think that is very possible. As it is, Temps are very close here. Verbatim too warm, but it's really close.
 
tarheels2 link said:
[quote author=Flurry link=topic=80.msg6197#msg6197 date=1483295436]
Very foggy today in the "Ham"...Know what that means!!
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What does that mean?
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Frozen precip soon to follow
 
Rofl, is that a 1063 High on the JMA?  Anyway looks like the Low takes a Northern FL track to off SC/NC per JMA.
 
James posted one of those graphs on his blog this morning that had several members showing snowfall from the European and that was before these new runs. Maybe those numbers will increase.
 
Parker link said:
James posted one of those graphs on his blog this morning that had several members showing snowfall from the European and that was before these new runs. Maybe those numbers will increase.
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I'm expecting this EPS run to be pretty juicy.


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No update from the NWS for my area. They have the previous discussion on their afternoon package. I'm thinking they'll update it after tonight's runs. We should see improvements on the 18z GFS or 0z GFS, because we have model similarities between the CMC and Euro. 

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
No update from the NWS for my area. They have the previous discussion on their afternoon package. I'm thinking they'll update it after tonight's runs. We should see improvements on the 18z GFS or 0z GFS, because we have model similarities between the CMC and Euro. 

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Shift change tomorrow at FFC. Nelson and I believe Listemma go in. (Those two are seasoned abs very good forecasters).


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Would be nice to have a NOAA research plane flying out into the north-central Pacific into this ULL to provide some adequate upper air observations, because this poorly sampled ULL and attendant northeast Pacific Rex block over Alaska are largely to blame for most of our problems in this week's forecast and the huge run-to-run variability in the models. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see another unanimous & quite significant shift in the guidance in ~4 days once this disturbance is properly sampled over the US. Of course, by then we wouldn't really have much time left to speculate on its future... The northern stream system that could provide a shot of wintry wx to the Carolinas and perhaps even the middle Atlantic late this week won't enter the North American upper air network until later on Tuesday. We have a *very* long ways to go with these  threats this week and into the following week and we likely won't be much closer to figuring any of this out for another 2-3 days... :/

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