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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Looking good so far on 18z GFS, juicy out west

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Looks like it will possibly be another good run.  Euro shearing by this time.  Still double contour and left behind on this GFS run.
 
meg says gfs is on crack. heress their long term discussion

12Z GFS was the odd model out with respect to the weekend, dropping
compact closed low through the Midsouth on Saturday. Resultant
GFS model-derived snowfall for Saturday is near a foot over east
AR & west TN. The ECMWF and Canadian conversely maintain dry and
mostly clear conditions for the weekend, having long before dampened
the upstream low over the Rockies on Thursday and weakening it
into an open wave, passing through the lower MS River valley early
Friday. Given the better interrun consistency of the ECMWF and
Canadian models, and their agreement with each other, have
dropped model blended precip chances to below mentionable thresholds
for Saturday`s forecast. In any case, cold midwinter- like temperatures
will prevail before milder temps return early next week.
 
I will say from these maps, (small) it looks like it wants to be a little bit faster/more interactive versus 06/12z.  Nothing to break anything yet.. just wanted to note.  Almost like it feels a little more effect from the NS.
 
Im not going to be too worried until RAOB data is infused into the guidance, but yea the 18z run looks to have a taken a jog towards the ECMWF/UKMET solutions with a weaker, flatter NW Pac wave getting a bit more strung out & interacting with the northern stream more
 
Looks like it will survive, but Eric's post is correct in a slight step.
 
Webberweather53 link said:
Im not going to be too worried until RAOB data is infused into the guidance, but yea the 18z run looks to have a taken a jog towards the ECMWF/UKMET solutions with a weaker, flatter NW Pac wave getting a bit more strung out & interacting with the northern stream more
Click to expand...
Yep, trending to the EURO...


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Looking good so far. Not far off so far from 12z. Looks like its going to be another big hit IMO.
 
Shawn link said:
Looks like it will survive, but Eric's post is correct in a slight step.
Click to expand...
Surviving, but trended to the other models a bit...


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I expect both models to trend toward each other in the next few runs. :snowflake:
 
Still looking good, this is going to be a BIG DOG! again on this run

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Still looking good, this is going to be a BIG DOG! again on this run

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Click to expand...
Keeps hope alive!!!!


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I believe this will be another good run, fingures cross
 
Yeah, this is a step to the faster Euro.  Not quite a fan.  Not saying this will be a fail run though. 
 
Looking a little euro- ish
 
GOOD RUN.. NO ITS SQUASHED.. NO ITS GONNA SURVIVE.. LOL  I LOVE IT
 
Looks about same to me as 12z, maybe a tad fast or stronger out west

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Brent link said:
this thread is hilarious lol. Everyone says a different thing :p
Click to expand...

I think some of us are over here looking for things to go wrong, and some are looking for things to go good. ;P
 
Looks like he's gonna come.  Just wanted to note more interaction from the NS.  Which is bad.  We don't want a sheared mess on future runs like the Euro has.
 
Shawn link said:
Looks like he's gonna come.  Just wanted to note more interaction from the NS.  Which is bad.  We don't want a sheared mess on future runs like the Euro has.
Click to expand...
can you point out to me what the northern stream is?
 
snowcrazy link said:
I expect both models to trend toward each other in the next few runs. :snowflake:
Click to expand...

And that would still be a good storm for a lot.
 
mydoortotheworld link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg7523#msg7523 date=1483394140]
Looks like he's gonna come.  Just wanted to note more interaction from the NS.  Which is bad.  We don't want a sheared mess on future runs like the Euro has.
Click to expand...
can you point out to me what the northern stream is?
[/quote]

quick map, not detailed lol but this thing circled in blue.
quickmap.png
 
That high is not going to drop south, good news! The low should be dropping any time.

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Brick Tamland link said:
And some folks should probably not do the play by play.
Click to expand...

if it wasn't for PBP you wouldn't know what was going on... so don't be picky who does it
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=mydoortotheworld link=topic=80.msg7526#msg7526 date=1483394211]
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg7523#msg7523 date=1483394140]
Looks like he's gonna come.  Just wanted to note more interaction from the NS.  Which is bad.  We don't want a sheared mess on future runs like the Euro has.
Click to expand...
can you point out to me what the northern stream is?
[/quote]

quick map, not detailed lol but this thing circled in blue.
[/quote]

thank you!!
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=mydoortotheworld link=topic=80.msg7526#msg7526 date=1483394211]
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg7523#msg7523 date=1483394140]
Looks like he's gonna come.  Just wanted to note more interaction from the NS.  Which is bad.  We don't want a sheared mess on future runs like the Euro has.
Click to expand...
can you point out to me what the northern stream is?
[/quote]

quick map, not detailed lol but this thing circled in blue.
quickmap.png

[/quote]

Thats a good look...if it doesn't get absorbed into the main flow its going to get forced south...no doubt.
 
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