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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

The CMC is a good model, I've seen it more accurate than the GFS short to mid range. I really do believe that energy will slip right underneath that cold high that the GFS is showing. Right now, I'm using a blend of the CMC and GFS.

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SD link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6116#msg6116 date=1483288815]
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the late weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle. For entertainment, it brings a hard freeze well down into FL a week from tomorrow.
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It's very consistent with its 0z run

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[/quote]

True though this run is even colder! It brings single digit lows to TN/NC and parts of northern AL/GA/SC and has 1/8-9 staying below 32 for highs for much of the SE! This would be making the headlines for sure. I obviously am not buying into it but this does show what COULD occur (small chance).
 
Monday morning on the CMC. Brrrrr even if it verified warmer. It also keeps everyone below freezing Sunday.
gem_T2m_seus_33.png
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6120#msg6120 date=1483289148]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6116#msg6116 date=1483288815]
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the late weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle. For entertainment, it brings a hard freeze well down into FL a week from tomorrow.
Click to expand...
It's very consistent with its 0z run

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[/quote]

True though this run is even colder! It brings single digit lows to TN/NC and parts of northern AL/GA/SC and has 1/8-9 staying below 32 for highs for much of the SE! This would be making the headlines for sure. I obviously am not buying into it but this does show what COULD occur (small chance).
[/quote]
That 2nd wave coming out of Canada has some real deal cold air with it. 

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Let's see what the 12z Euro has when it comes out...if it agrees with the CMC then I'll be using a blend of CMC and Euro with a touch of GFS modeling.

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CMC does well with wedges during CAD events, not sure about it as a model overall.
 
There's one thing about it. There looks to be a few chances of winter weather for the south, starting Thurs through the middle of the next week. I wouldn't mind taking a couple smaller storms over one big one.
 
I'd me more then pleased with an inch of snow or more. Models are all over the place. At least they are showing colder.
 
The CMC is slower, it has the snow breaking out over the central and southern apps at 0z Fri (Thur eve). So it's about 6 hrs. slower than 12z GFS. The 12z GFS has the 2nd wave starting off as an ice event early next week. (Not accurate imo)

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Let's see what the 12z Euro has when it comes out...if it agrees with the CMC then I'll be using a blend of CMC and Euro with a touch of GFS modeling.

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Click to expand...

What is this a cooking forum? ?
 
I like the CMC in the short/med range, I've seen the CMC become right in a few cases like this one with wintry weather, and became right. As frustrating it is hoping for something in the winter department, like Chris reminded me earlier it's just weather. I'm just happy we are getting some nice beneficial rain. Maybe models will have better handle on things this weekend, with this possible wintry Chance
 
bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6128#msg6128 date=1483289920]
Let's see what the 12z Euro has when it comes out...if it agrees with the CMC then I'll be using a blend of CMC and Euro with a touch of GFS modeling.

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Click to expand...

What is this a cooking forum? ?
[/quote]
Hahah, well the CMC is cooking up our possible snow storm lol ?

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ForsythSnow link said:
6Z GFS Para so close to a great storm. Gives some front end snow to NE GA and parts of NC Sunday before changing to rain. Definitely better than 0Z.
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Good thing is it has the storm
 
ForsythSnow link said:
Monday morning on the CMC. Brrrrr even if it verified warmer. It also keeps everyone below freezing Sunday.
gem_T2m_seus_33.png
Click to expand...

This 12Z CMC map of Monday 1/9 at 7AM has mid 20's between Orlando and Tampa but it has 53 at Melbourne thanks to flow off of the Atlantic. That kind of contrast, where the east coast of central FL is kept in the 50's due to the Atlantic while the western portion of central FL is well down into the 20's would be an extremely rare occurrence to say the least.
 
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