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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg6099#msg6099 date=1483288027]
I will take the new CMC for 1000000 please.
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What is it showing? Don't have access to the maps yet.
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Freebie site should update soon, but a nice light snow/ice event from basically TX to the Carolina's.  Heck its close to snow down to I-10....even some wintry around my area.  its LIGHT for sure, but very cold...nice difference btwn the euro and GFS
 
SD link said:
We in NC need that Thursday wave to be as strong as possible and more separated from the lead wave in the lakes. Given this wave is still over eastern Russia who knows what we will see

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Great point and what probably another 24 hours or so before it gets over Northern Canada not sure about sampling but I guess it's a while before proper data ingested from that wave

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Looks like the second wave is turning into a CAD region ice storm, but a bit beyond CAD regions. Been showing ice for my area for the past several runs. Plus it looks like 12Z sends the low north.
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6098#msg6098 date=1483287976]
We in NC need that Thursday wave to be as strong as possible and more separated from the lead wave in the lakes. Given this wave is still over eastern Russia who knows what we will see

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Great point and what probably another 24 hours or so before it gets over Northern Canada not sure about sampling but I guess it's a while before proper data ingested from that wave

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These waves coming from near the Arctic Circle and flying into the pattern are so frustrating. Looks like this one gets into the Canadian network around 12z Tuesday and the US 12z Wednesday.

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06z DGEX is similar as the 12z GFS. DGEX is wetter and brings the low closer to the Atlantic coast.

Also, DGEX is colder

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look on the bright side of things... least most of the Alabama folks are in a nice enhanced risk tomorrow late for severe weather... we cant buy any weather here in Tennessee... something to track at least ;D
 
12z cmc
e87b5cdc86280999a2e01c2e6b88596a.jpg


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The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the late weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle. For entertainment, it brings a hard freeze well down into FL a week from tomorrow.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=80.msg6106#msg6106 date=1483288355]
OMG this is frustrating
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What?  Why?  It's just the weather.
[/quote] lol, just is sometimes but I'm fine
 
GaWx link said:
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle.
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ya, its nasssssty cold...I do think the CMC is a good split btwn the euro and GFS though.  I know this is weird for me to say this but...in a northern stream dominant pattern the GFS/CMC will do just as good, if not better than the euro....NINA winters (or N to slightly NINA) the GFS And CMC do pretty good...there bias' fit right into those types of patterns.
 
GaWx link said:
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the late weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle. For entertainment, it brings a hard freeze well down into FL a week from tomorrow.
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It's very consistent with its 0z run

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Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6116#msg6116 date=1483288815]
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle.
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ya, its nasssssty cold...I do think the CMC is a good split btwn the euro and GFS though.  I know this is weird for me to say this but...in a northern stream dominant pattern the GFS/CMC will do just as good, if not better than the euro....NINA winters (or N to slightly NINA) the GFS And CMC do pretty good...there bias' fit right into those types of patterns.
[/quote] I agree Chris.
 
I really wouldn't be surprised if we see one more major change in the modeling soon (probably not back to the cutter though) but if not I think a blend of the GFS and CMC will probably be close to the actual solution.
 
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