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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

modelwatcher link said:
That EPS run was the nail in the coffin IMHO
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Deadly within this range.  + the long-range NAM looks like GFS.. that's bad.
 
whatalife link said:
Glad to see the board back to gloomy feelings...


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for real...amazing. If the Euro was showing it and not the GFS,  you'd have the same folks saying it was wrong.
 
I honestly think that for both sides, we should give them a few more runs. That was one agreement for both sides and their ensembles. Throwing in the towel this early isn't that smart, even if it is the Euro. It has failed many times, and you never know what can happen. Only if the 0Z and 12Z runs tomorrow show the same or weaker of a system would I say Euro will win, but I think we still should wait.
 
It still shows widespread light winter precipitation. That GFS run was almost like a 384 hour clown map. Still think it'll be somewhere in between. The GFS also had some ensemble support. Still looks good for something.
 
Why is ppl so uptight with the Euro, it's just a run. Let's see if the GFS continue with its solution. At least the Euro is showing something still
 
EPS really flopped on that disturbance now progged to hit the NE US/Mid-Atlantic (& perhaps even into the Carolinas) Thu night into Fri. Remember how suppressed & offshore it was a few days ago... lol #woops
 
In Dec 2012, two days out the euro showed a couple of inches of snow for my area.  48 hours later we were under a blizzard warning. I'll wait a couple of days before I punt.
 
Ahhh the ups and downs with model watching.  All I need to see is continue to see a storm signal at this point.  As we all know In the South, no one can tell you definitively what is going to happen in some cases until it falls from the sky.  Even the day of the snow, there will be narrow bands for those who are lucky while 10 miles away can be a world of difference.  The EPS was not what everyone hoped for but it did continue to support some wintry weather.  That is all we can ask for at this time range.
 
I would take a blend, cut totals from gfs down to more inline with the cmc and euro. Call a 2-5" storm NGA through upstate and call it a great storm.
 
He's not known as the king and Dr. no for nothing but honestly since it's upgrade it doesn't seem to have performed as well, however verification scores at this range still very good and leading the pack.  I want to feel good about our chances but that eps was just a buzz kill....
 
Stormlover link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg7411#msg7411 date=1483388567]
Glad to see the board back to gloomy feelings...


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for real...amazing. If the Euro was showing it and not the GFS,  you'd have the same folks saying it was wrong.
[/quote]

Every year, every storm, same remarks.  All I know, all these same murky outlooks has turned out good for HVILLE
 
I'm not worried ATM, I'm still pumped about this event. I still have this feeling it will go BOOM, it's the Weenie coming out
 
As long as my county is purple or pink from the NWS on Friday night or Saturday then I'll be fine.
 
accu35 link said:
I'm not worried ATM, I'm still pumped about this event. I still have this feeling it will go BOOM, it's the Weenie coming out
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Its a good thing your without then.
 
Well correct me if I'm wrong but the Euro and eps are more strung out and suppressed...  so while that is a very real possibility I'll take my chances on a suppressed system coming back NW over a cutter coming back south any day.  Keeping hope alive
 
I think a mix of the Euro and GFS is very possible imo...

Or at least I'm hoping that this storm is not as strong or trends south as there's ice involved with it.

Sorry, I accidently said impossible at first, I mean possible.
 
metwannabe link said:
Well correct me if I'm wrong but the Euro and eps are more strung out and suppressed...  so while that is a very real possibility I'll take my chances on a suppressed system coming back NW over a cutter coming back south any day.  Keeping hope alive
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This.  We almost always see a day 4-5 look come NW and more robust

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Stormlover link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg7411#msg7411 date=1483388567]
Glad to see the board back to gloomy feelings...


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Click to expand...
for real...amazing. If the Euro was showing it and not the GFS,  you'd have the same folks saying it was wrong.
[/quote]

If the Euro had this look, at this range, you would not only have this whole board "on board", but you would have Mets really considering it. The GFS is notorious to caving to the Euro, and it will most likely do it again. If not, you can call me out personally!
 
accu35 link said:
I still have this feeling it will go BOOM, it's the Weenie coming out
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Sounds like you need to save that for a more appropriate occasion.  Haha! 

Seriously, that wasn't good, per OP/EPS, but I'd hold off standing on the ledge at the moment. 
 
Some of you people are insufferable.  If you already think nothing will happen, then why are you still following it?
 
Nam splits the difference lol
5d321934a8e930582fc19d0cd3d6de1b.jpg


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SD link said:
Nam splits the difference lol
5d321934a8e930582fc19d0cd3d6de1b.jpg


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I'd take that look over the euro right now...  I know the NAM gets bashed but sometimes it's not too awful when looking at H5, it's the results at the surface that sometimes is wacky
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Some of you people are insufferable.  If you already think nothing will happen, then why are you still following it?
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But feel free to jump off the ledge so we can slow the thread down a tad.


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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7443#msg7443 date=1483389817]
Nam splits the difference lol
5d321934a8e930582fc19d0cd3d6de1b.jpg


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I'd take that look over the euro right now...  I know the NAM gets bashed but sometimes it's not too awful when looking at H5, it's the results at the surface that sometimes is wacky
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I would take that look as well.  Something just doesn't sit well with me with the EURO...I feel like we will split the D btwn the gfs and euro.
 
The forum name has changed, but the weather drama is still the same. Feels like home ;). We will just have to keep watching.
 
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