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Brick Tamland
Guest
SD link said:
Think we're in a good spot this far out as the sweet spot usually moves a little NW as we get closer.
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Think we're in a good spot this far out as the sweet spot usually moves a little NW as we get closer.
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NorthGaWinter
Guest
solid 6-8 snowfall for a lot of GA!!!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I agree this run is probably more realistic, but we'll just have to see what 0z (& subsequent 12z runs) hold as this is typically when new upper air data is infused into the models. Definitely have to like where we are at rn, having suppression 4-5 days out is a good thing
Many more in play for all snow on this run and some high ration snow up this way..... Dang nice, this would be just about a board wide event.
Brick Tamland link said:
Think we're in a good spot this far out as the sweet spot usually moves a little NW as we get closer.
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Yep looks like it might end up along or east of 95 this run
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Solid 4-6 event for a lot of our state. Woah baby
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Looks a little weaker to me but still a great storm, and that makes it three straight runs that show a great winter storm, can it be Wednesday-Thursday already? haha
packfan98
Moderator
Nice southern slider!
SD link said:
Think we're in a good spot this far out as the sweet spot usually moves a little NW as we get closer.
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Yep looks like it might end up along or east of 95 this run
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Precip maximum se of us but we make it up with great ratio.... temps in low 20's maybe upper teens with snow. Wow
This run brought a huge grin to my face.
dsaur
Member
GaWx link said:[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=80.msg7286#msg7286 date=1483382734]
Sure would like to see that low crossing further south, else that will have to be a mighty cad to keep it from cold rain down here. Further away from that heat pump the better. This far out it's screaming iffy..but hey, that's the south, and if we ain't got iffy down here, we ain't got much, lol. Remarkable Goofy has held on all this long a while, and plenty of time for a southward trend and sleet for TonyI haven't had a good sled in 11 years. It's time I saw another 4 inches of sleet with some snow on top. Meanwhile, I just poured out 2.4 inches of the anti drought. Over 70 days of nothing and now over 8 inches of liquid gold since the abrupt cessation of the Nothing. Amazing weather we are having.
Tony,
I'm not sure if you saw it, but the 6Z GFS gave you a big sleetstorm after 1-2" of snow (and virtually no zr) that would rival anything seen in metro ATL since at least the great 1988 4" sleetstorm. The 12Z GFS gives you some ZR but still has a nice amount of sleet. Maybe you will finally be able to use your sleet sled again though it would be nice if other models would even halfway agree lol. We know better than to bet on these GFS runs but keep hope alive!
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Hey, Larry, I'm just now catching up! Yep, Goofy gives the cheese, then the Doc says No. So what else is new, lol. I won't worry either way until Thursday, and I'm prepared as always for disappointment...that way when I get another 88 I'll be so jacked I'll be brave enough to challenge the state road with the bridge abutment at the bottom. Funny how things are easy when your 42, but scare the heck out of you at 70, lol. 88 was the best sleet down here, but the one in the late 70's, in Atl, was wins the life time achievement award!!! Best night of sledding in my life. Amsterdam all the way down past devils dive. What a run. That one was between cars on both sides and crossing a major road blind. The state road down here is much steeper, and we got clocked at 25 doing a tandem run, but that bridge abutment is scary, if you get thrown off course. I've had enough sleet to do the state road twice since 88, but the four wheelers tear it up so bad showing off to the girlfriends you need deep sleet for it to stay covered, so anything under two inches of sleet gives you maybe one opportunity after midnight.... and 88 was the cheese.
Yeah, Larry, I'm ready for another...way past ready. I'm a patient man, but I do have my limits. I Need Some Sleet!!!! lol. Tony
Low to mid 20s for us with 850s around -5 a and 700mb temps crashing....I'm in heaven. We would certainly see our ratios increase by 6z Sundaymetwannabe link said:
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richardjacks
Meteorologist
Looking for snow in Birmingham? 18z has the look
VegasEagle
Member
VERY, VERY NICE!tellicowx link said:
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whatalife
Moderator
Where do I cash in my chips b/f it's to late...What a dream run!!!
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VegasEagle
Member
SC and NC is a big big winner!whatalife link said:
Tries to get a little Atlantic moisture involved....i think I'm in lovetellicowx link said:
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mydoortotheworld
Member
safe to say that at least in NGA, most of this will all be snow
WXinCanton
Member
.5 QPF in my backyard all frozen with temps in the 20's. Wrap it up and put it under the tree.
WXinCanton
Member
that run is a score for central AL/GA.
Tries to get a little Atlantic moisture involved....i think I'm in lovetellicowx link said:
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Yeah, really ramps up nice for you guys
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Thought it was gonna cut 95 first, but it's further south in Gulf so by time it does its actually a little further east for you
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Colder here...going to be a big ice storm around here...GFS has me at or below 35 12hrs prior then near or below 32 once precipitation starts.
JLL1973
Member
i got the shaft on that run
VegasEagle
Member
Ouch!Deltadog03 link said:
dsaur
Member
And that's what a good low placement does for you. Get the low crossing Fla, and it opens up the whole deep south. Now can this hold until d day It's what I asked for earlier, and now I've got it...but can I keep it?? Chris, this ones for you! Even El K gets in on this. T
It's what I asked for earlier, and now I've got it...but can I keep it?? Chris, this ones for you! Even El K gets in on this. T
Webberweather53 link said:
yes sir! lol...not saying this is right, but IMHO more believable than the 12z run....this honestly isn't that far off from what the CMC and EURO are showing..
VegasEagle
Member
BOOM! 100 PAGES! 250 under/ over?!?
Remember how early on in this run there was talk of trending towards the Euro then how this is a big hit.... well msuwx on the other board has a great post about why this did take a step towards the Euro and it is a little concerning. Long story short there was more interaction with the ns early on but then it separated, little longer interaction and we get a strung out mess like the Euro... of course if the Euro separates then out just a little it goes toward the gfs. Still so much can go right and so much can go wrong. Model watch responsibly
packfan98
Moderator
DadOfJax
Member
That was a great looking run. Just be aware, it was a trend towards the Euro. I expect the Euro to move a little as well, but I fully expect the GFS to trend more. It would still give most people around here their average yearly snowfall (if not more).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
bhs1975 link said:
We need more stream separation for the disturbance in the Pacific northwest to cut-off, amplify and slow down as it enters the Great basin and southwestern US
mydoortotheworld link said:
The northern stream is essentially the polar jet stream, while the southern stream is also known as the subtropical jet stream. Split flow over the Pacific with 2 defined streams (as we currently have) is often a necessary ingredient for overrunning/southern sliders in the southeastern US, mid-south, and southern plains. Split flow in the northeastern Pacific typically occurs when we observe a large-scale ridge in the vicinity of Alaska (-EPO), which usually retrogrades westward with time and moves towards the Bering Sea & far eastern Siberia (-WPO). Essentially, w/o going into much of the physical details why this occurs, -WPOs often lag -EPOs... Here's a nice animation of the NCEP Reanalysis top 20 -EPO days in January rolled forward a week and another animation showing the z500 in the week leading up to the top 20 -WPO days in January. Notice how the Alaskan ridge retrogrades westward into Bering Sea/Eastern Siberia, while the southeastern US ridge becomes increasingly amplified with time. This pattern evolution is virtually what we're gonna see later this week and into the following week, hence we can probably expect milder wx to (@ least try to) return by the middle portions of the month...
Top 20 January -WPO days animation (Day -7 to 0, i.e. in the 7 days preceding the strongest daily -WPOs) (1948-Present)
Top 20 January -EPO days animation (Day 0 to +7, i.e. in the days immediately following the strongest daily -EPOs) (1948-Present)
Here's the GEFS forecast next few weeks... Return of the SE US ridge in week 2 and beyond looks more legitimate this time around
