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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Beautiful to see snow for so long at Huntsville and visibilities near zero at times...can't wait! (visibility is the last number)
120 01/07 12Z  31    31      90      7    0.46  0.00    542    561  -2.4 -17.0 1023.1 100 SN    033BKN106 111OVC209 230BKN348  33    29  0.0
126 01/07 18Z  31    31      76      8    0.41  0.00    542    558  -0.1 -19.9 1019.3 100 SN    024OVC079 110BKN167 257BKN320  31    30  0.0
132 01/08 00Z  30    29      17      10    0.37  0.00    533    551  -4.4 -24.2 1023.1 100 SN    015OVC071 113BKN175    CLR      32    30  0.5
138 01/08 06Z  28    27      2      11    0.01  0.00    534    554  -4.2 -23.2 1026.2  96 -SN  019BKN051 145SCT197    CLR      30    28  1.2
144 01/08 12Z  24    24      3      10    0.00  0.00    533    557  -3.9 -24.3 1031.7  87 -SN  015BKN031    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.7
150 01/08 18Z  26    25      7      8    0.00  0.00    535    561  -1.5 -24.6 1033.8  50 -SN  012SCT024    CLR      CLR      26    22  0.5
156 01/09 00Z  24    23      18      7    0.00  0.00    538    566  -0.3 -22.5 1035.7  53 -SN  009BKN020    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.5
162 01/09 06Z  12    12      39      4    0.00  0.00    539    567    0.6 -23.3 1037.0  74 -SN  011SCT019 192SCT225 230BKN265  23    12  0.5
 
The 12z GFS is really close to being really bad ice wise in my area, with CAD sometimes being underestimated it probably is.

That is if it were to happen...
 
Stormlover link said:
Beautiful to see snow for so long at Huntsville and visibilities near zero at times...can't wait! (visibility is the last number)
120 01/07 12Z  31    31      90      7    0.46  0.00    542    561  -2.4 -17.0 1023.1 100 SN    033BKN106 111OVC209 230BKN348  33    29  0.0
126 01/07 18Z  31    31      76      8    0.41  0.00    542    558  -0.1 -19.9 1019.3 100 SN    024OVC079 110BKN167 257BKN320  31    30  0.0
132 01/08 00Z  30    29      17      10    0.37  0.00    533    551  -4.4 -24.2 1023.1 100 SN    015OVC071 113BKN175    CLR      32    30  0.5
138 01/08 06Z  28    27      2      11    0.01  0.00    534    554  -4.2 -23.2 1026.2  96 -SN  019BKN051 145SCT197    CLR      30    28  1.2
144 01/08 12Z  24    24      3      10    0.00  0.00    533    557  -3.9 -24.3 1031.7  87 -SN  015BKN031    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.7
150 01/08 18Z  26    25      7      8    0.00  0.00    535    561  -1.5 -24.6 1033.8  50 -SN  012SCT024    CLR      CLR      26    22  0.5
156 01/09 00Z  24    23      18      7    0.00  0.00    538    566  -0.3 -22.5 1035.7  53 -SN  009BKN020    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.5
162 01/09 06Z  12    12      39      4    0.00  0.00    539    567    0.6 -23.3 1037.0  74 -SN  011SCT019 192SCT225 230BKN265  23    12  0.5
Where can I find that information for my area?
 
ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg7218#msg7218 date=1483380388]
Beautiful to see snow for so long at Huntsville and visibilities near zero at times...can't wait! (visibility is the last number)
120 01/07 12Z  31    31      90      7    0.46  0.00    542    561  -2.4 -17.0 1023.1 100 SN    033BKN106 111OVC209 230BKN348  33    29  0.0
126 01/07 18Z  31    31      76      8    0.41  0.00    542    558  -0.1 -19.9 1019.3 100 SN    024OVC079 110BKN167 257BKN320  31    30  0.0
132 01/08 00Z  30    29      17      10    0.37  0.00    533    551  -4.4 -24.2 1023.1 100 SN    015OVC071 113BKN175    CLR      32    30  0.5
138 01/08 06Z  28    27      2      11    0.01  0.00    534    554  -4.2 -23.2 1026.2  96 -SN  019BKN051 145SCT197    CLR      30    28  1.2
144 01/08 12Z  24    24      3      10    0.00  0.00    533    557  -3.9 -24.3 1031.7  87 -SN  015BKN031    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.7
150 01/08 18Z  26    25      7      8    0.00  0.00    535    561  -1.5 -24.6 1033.8  50 -SN  012SCT024    CLR      CLR      26    22  0.5
156 01/09 00Z  24    23      18      7    0.00  0.00    538    566  -0.3 -22.5 1035.7  53 -SN  009BKN020    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.5
162 01/09 06Z  12    12      39      4    0.00  0.00    539    567    0.6 -23.3 1037.0  74 -SN  011SCT019 192SCT225 230BKN265  23    12  0.5
Where can I find that information for my area?
[/quote]use this link but change the location after K at the end to the three letter airport code for your city  http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Khsv.txt
 
GeorgiaGirl link said:
The 12z GFS is really close to being really bad ice wise in my area, with CAD sometimes being underestimated it probably is.

That is if it were to happen...
With CAD already strong in, it could very well be beyond typical CAD areas, with that high in place. South of Atlanta north would be the area for ice IF the low happened to go north. If it stays south like 6Z, then further south would be icy.
 
12z euro at 72 hrs looks similar to last run and cmc. Gfs hangs back out west long and still closed off same hour.. which model(s) will fall first?

e1e888e33571d0844e70dea03abfbf8b.jpg

9b8d5b067d71208e7a431998401faded.jpg


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Euro still strings the energy out into the lead wave...best hope now is the western part of the energy can detach

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Stormlover link said:
Beautiful to see snow for so long at Huntsville and visibilities near zero at times...can't wait! (visibility is the last number)
120 01/07 12Z  31    31      90      7    0.46  0.00    542    561  -2.4 -17.0 1023.1 100 SN    033BKN106 111OVC209 230BKN348  33    29  0.0
126 01/07 18Z  31    31      76      8    0.41  0.00    542    558  -0.1 -19.9 1019.3 100 SN    024OVC079 110BKN167 257BKN320  31    30  0.0
132 01/08 00Z  30    29      17      10    0.37  0.00    533    551  -4.4 -24.2 1023.1 100 SN    015OVC071 113BKN175    CLR      32    30  0.5
138 01/08 06Z  28    27      2      11    0.01  0.00    534    554  -4.2 -23.2 1026.2  96 -SN  019BKN051 145SCT197    CLR      30    28  1.2
144 01/08 12Z  24    24      3      10    0.00  0.00    533    557  -3.9 -24.3 1031.7  87 -SN  015BKN031    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.7
150 01/08 18Z  26    25      7      8    0.00  0.00    535    561  -1.5 -24.6 1033.8  50 -SN  012SCT024    CLR      CLR      26    22  0.5
156 01/09 00Z  24    23      18      7    0.00  0.00    538    566  -0.3 -22.5 1035.7  53 -SN  009BKN020    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.5
162 01/09 06Z  12    12      39      4    0.00  0.00    539    567    0.6 -23.3 1037.0  74 -SN  011SCT019 192SCT225 230BKN265  23    12  0.5
Where do you get that data?


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The energy at 90 over the 4 corners is pretty strong...this may have more precip than the cmc but it won't be the gfs

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SD link said:
I see Allan just tweeted about the 1/6-7 1988 storm. It's a similar setup and it shows how you have to have wave separation and a consolidated wave to get high precip amounts

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  I was just hoping that this storm would rival the 1988 storm, after all, we haven't seen one like the '88 storm well since '88.
 
cg2916 link said:
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg7218#msg7218 date=1483380388]
Beautiful to see snow for so long at Huntsville and visibilities near zero at times...can't wait! (visibility is the last number)
120 01/07 12Z  31    31      90      7    0.46  0.00    542    561  -2.4 -17.0 1023.1 100 SN    033BKN106 111OVC209 230BKN348  33    29  0.0
126 01/07 18Z  31    31      76      8    0.41  0.00    542    558  -0.1 -19.9 1019.3 100 SN    024OVC079 110BKN167 257BKN320  31    30  0.0
132 01/08 00Z  30    29      17      10    0.37  0.00    533    551  -4.4 -24.2 1023.1 100 SN    015OVC071 113BKN175    CLR      32    30  0.5
138 01/08 06Z  28    27      2      11    0.01  0.00    534    554  -4.2 -23.2 1026.2  96 -SN  019BKN051 145SCT197    CLR      30    28  1.2
144 01/08 12Z  24    24      3      10    0.00  0.00    533    557  -3.9 -24.3 1031.7  87 -SN  015BKN031    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.7
150 01/08 18Z  26    25      7      8    0.00  0.00    535    561  -1.5 -24.6 1033.8  50 -SN  012SCT024    CLR      CLR      26    22  0.5
156 01/09 00Z  24    23      18      7    0.00  0.00    538    566  -0.3 -22.5 1035.7  53 -SN  009BKN020    CLR      CLR      28    24  0.5
162 01/09 06Z  12    12      39      4    0.00  0.00    539    567    0.6 -23.3 1037.0  74 -SN  011SCT019 192SCT225 230BKN265  23    12  0.5
Where do you get that data?


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[/quote]http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Khsv.txt
 
If that is the case, it is a trend I would think toward the GFS. Maybe not to that extent but toward it. :snowflake:
 
ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=modelwatcher link=topic=80.msg7239#msg7239 date=1483381296]
GFS is an outlier right now. EURO is way closer to CMC
One side is going to cave. Just the question is which one?
[/quote]

GFS will. How often do we see a storm like that? We are in the euro's wheelhouse
 
modelwatcher link said:
The GFS says winter storm warning and the other models say a winter weather advisory. LOL

Im honestly just happy that both model camps have wintry weather in some way, shape, or form, it's usually akin to picking teeth to get them to agree on that alone
 
Surprised the Euro didn't give us a more UKMET look.  Hopefully the EPS will be decent.  OP's are still going to be all over the place at this range. 
 
Right now, I would say this is a 1 to 3 inch event for the Atlanta Metro. With the potential of 4 to 5 if more moisture gets involved than what the European is showing.
 
I'd almost rather have a weaker solution or for this to trend south some more because the GFS is really not that far from a bad ice storm.
 
ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=modelwatcher link=topic=80.msg7239#msg7239 date=1483381296]
GFS is an outlier right now. EURO is way closer to CMC
One side is going to cave. Just the question is which one?
[/quote]
Could be both.... I am going with a compromise of the two. I believe we will see a stronger system than what the Euro is spitting out. However, I don't see the GFS winning either. Let's see what the ensembles have to show us.
 
FLO link said:
Oh well....it was fun while it lasted. For a few hours.  :eyeroll:

Lol, you still get snow though.  It's just not a massive, crippling, ridiculous sleet and ice storm per Euro.

A middle ground of the GFS & Euro as of now.. would me our area very happy.  Idk about Chris though.. it'd prob be ZR either way, will have to see.
 
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