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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

6z GEFS mean went back up, after dropping at 0z.  It's now similar to yesterdays 12z and 18z.
snod.conus.png
 
Snowfan link said:
[quote author=packfan98 link=topic=80.msg6014#msg6014 date=1483271635]
Here's what we don't want from the 6z gfs:
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Is that from Today or Yesterday?
[/quote]

It's the latest run: 6z 1/1/2017  You can see the timestamp in the top right corner of the map.
 
I'll take yesterday's 12z para setup

00z eps was much improved

Need to start seeing things improve on today's run.

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packfan98 link said:
[quote author=Snowfan link=topic=80.msg6017#msg6017 date=1483276804]
[quote author=packfan98 link=topic=80.msg6014#msg6014 date=1483271635]
Here's what we don't want from the 6z gfs:
Click to expand...
Is that from Today or Yesterday?
[/quote]

It's the latest run: 6z 1/1/2017  You can see the timestamp in the top right corner of the map.
[/quote]
Oh good. An ice storm.
 
Spanarkle08 link said:
Our weather guys have taken all precip out of forecast for the end of the week here in West TN. What's your thinking?
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Good call because models have been trending drier for our area
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SimeonNC link=topic=80.msg6022#msg6022 date=1483277227]
Does anyone have the GEFS individual members?



'
Click to expand...
not impressed
00b23d5216f457c5c40da36e9fa83f46.jpg


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[/quote]
This puppy might be slipping away.


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The GEFS doesn't look too bad, I seriously doubt the cold is gonna be that strong to completely squash the system. Today's runs should begin to see the end of complete model mayhem and some serious agreement should be starting. Nobody should be giving up at this point.
 
SimeonNC link said:
The GEFS doesn't look too bad, I seriously doubt the cold is gonna be that strong to completely squash the system. Today's runs should begin to see the end of complete model mayhem and some serious agreement should be starting. Nobody should be giving up at this point.
Click to expand...

I think we could still see some pretty significant fluctuations in the models through Tuesday.  Complicated setup with multiple pieces of energy.  They often switch which one gets more emphasis.  Possible phasing is really complicated.  The depth of the cold air push is key.  I doubt we have seen the final solution yet.
 
I don't like the 06z GFS. The energy is held back, it waits for that high to get on the east coast. Then the energy gets kicked out from the out west. This is not the setup we want. There would be some winter weather at the onset than the warmer air would take over with that setup. That high would be a big role to see what pans out.

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so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

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Storm5 link said:
so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

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Click to expand...

The models are poorly handling this wave, we should accept that anything is possible at this point and it won't be until tomorrow or Tuesday that we can get a good handle on this.
 
Storm5 link said:
so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

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Click to expand...
Yeah man, I don't jump the cliff, specially when the models are all over the place. Jumping the cliff is like leaving the party at 9 lol. I know members have jumped the cliff. Their going to wish they didn't, if models show something entirely different. 

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