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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Snowfall on GEFS
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Some of these LP on the GEFS are wrapped up so tight...I actually think the snowfall maps are way under done on those members

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NorthGaWinter link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg7166#msg7166 date=1483377399]
So what have I mssed?
Click to expand...

System turned into a cutter
[/quote]
False, that's an inaccurate statement lol

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The fact that he GEFS has not been showing things shifting north is a great sign. It has some northern solutions sure, but the southern solutions are still there as well.
 
Holy crap! Just going over the last few pages. Is the GFS really showing over 20 inches of snow here? Is the Euro showing the same?
 
Lol @ Spann on facebook saying about 12z gfs solution "doesnt seem likely concerning the pattern"
 
One thing on the GEFS is some of the member rapidly deepen the system pulling it inland going up the coast

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Spann is bs. The pattern is juicy for southern snow.


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NoDa-wx link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg7166#msg7166 date=1483377399]
So what have I mssed?
Click to expand...

kermit1.gif

[/quote]
Omg this is great

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Brick Tamland link said:
Holy crap! Just going over the last few pages. Is the GFS really showing over 20 inches of snow here? Is the Euro showing the same?
Click to expand...
Gfs has 18-22 for wake county we might mix with some sleet. Especially over my way.  The cmc has 1-3 the overnight euro did too. I would lean that way until something else supports the gfs

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Although we probably can't be terribly certain about any specific solution until later on Tuesday into Wednesday, the large-scale pattern looks favorable for this to actually stay put over the SE US & not trend terribly far northward as usual with the ridge over the southern Rockies and into west Texas. That ridge will try to kick our system towards the south and east, obviously details are still unknown atm and this could still shoot way up into the lower OH valley and Apps...

Screen-Shot-2017-01-02-at-12.20.05-PM-1024x987.png


Here's my first call map (if you want to call it that) lol. I worded everything carefully and did my best to include most potential solutions. Anywhere between the I-20 & I-70 corridors is still legitimately fair game, and the only area I feel even remotely confident is over the climatologically favored south-central Appalachians and far western piedmont of NC and south-central VA.

Screen-Shot-2017-01-02-at-10.31.30-AM-1024x795.png
 
Webberweather53 link said:
Although we probably can't be terribly certain about any specific solution until later on Tuesday into Wednesday, the large-scale pattern looks favorable for this to actually stay put over the SE US & not trend terribly far northward as usual with the ridge over the southern Rockies and into west Texas. That ridge will try to kick our system towards the south and east, obviously details are still unknown atm and this could still shoot way up into the lower OH valley and Apps...

Screen-Shot-2017-01-02-at-12.20.05-PM-1024x987.png


Here's my first call map (if you want to call it that) lol. I worded everything carefully and did my best to include most potential solutions. Anywhere between the I-20 & I-70 corridors is still legitimately fair game, and the only area I feel even remotely confident is over the climatologically favored south-central Appalachians and far western piedmont of NC and south-central VA.

Screen-Shot-2017-01-02-at-10.31.30-AM-1024x795.png
Click to expand...
+1 totally agree


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Hi everyone! Decided to use the same username as the other forum for continuity's sake even though I live in Winston now. Was posting the GEFS snow map but someone already beat me to it -- anyway, the trend upward in GEFS snow totals along with there being a fair number of suppressed members is really encouraging.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg7177#msg7177 date=1483377726]
Holy crap! Just going over the last few pages. Is the GFS really showing over 20 inches of snow here? Is the Euro showing the same?
Click to expand...
Gfs has 18-22 for wake county we might mix with some sleet. Especially over my way.  The cmc has 1-3 the overnight euro did too. I would lean that way until something else supports the gfs

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[/quote]

Just a little difference. At least they are all showing a storm.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7185#msg7185 date=1483377993]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg7177#msg7177 date=1483377726]
Holy crap! Just going over the last few pages. Is the GFS really showing over 20 inches of snow here? Is the Euro showing the same?
Click to expand...
Gfs has 18-22 for wake county we might mix with some sleet. Especially over my way.  The cmc has 1-3 the overnight euro did too. I would lean that way until something else supports the gfs

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[/quote]

Just a little difference. At least they are all showing a storm.
[/quote]
Yep that's the positive for us. Even if the wave is sheared we can do ok.

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I see Allan just tweeted about the 1/6-7 1988 storm. It's a similar setup and it shows how you have to have wave separation and a consolidated wave to get high precip amounts

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SD link said:
I see Allan just tweeted about the 1/6-7 1988 storm. It's a similar setup and it shows how you have to have wave separation and a consolidated wave to get high precip amounts

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Click to expand...
Wasn't the Jan 88 storm a long duration overrunning, instead of a wound up storm?
 
SD link said:
I see Allan just tweeted about the 1/6-7 1988 storm. It's a similar setup and it shows how you have to have wave separation and a consolidated wave to get high precip amounts

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Click to expand...

SD, does any part of the gfs run look believable to you? Thats alot of snow for the south. I wasnt sure.
 
Mrgolf link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7198#msg7198 date=1483379178]
I see Allan just tweeted about the 1/6-7 1988 storm. It's a similar setup and it shows how you have to have wave separation and a consolidated wave to get high precip amounts

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Click to expand...

SD, does any part of the gfs run look believable to you? Thats alot of snow for the south. I wasnt sure.
[/quote]

The setup is very possible. A lot of what the gfs is showing is ice on the southern side of it.
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7198#msg7198 date=1483379178]
I see Allan just tweeted about the 1/6-7 1988 storm. It's a similar setup and it shows how you have to have wave separation and a consolidated wave to get high precip amounts

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Click to expand...
Wasn't the Jan 88 storm a long duration overrunning, instead of a wound up storm?
[/quote]
It was pretty similar to the gfs. A weak wave but mainly a moist flow aloft and dynamics.
Mrgolf link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7198#msg7198 date=1483379178]
I see Allan just tweeted about the 1/6-7 1988 storm. It's a similar setup and it shows how you have to have wave separation and a consolidated wave to get high precip amounts

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Click to expand...

SD, does any part of the gfs run look believable to you? Thats alot of snow for the south. I wasnt sure.
[/quote]
It's certainly not out of the question. It's just on more prolific side of guidance and lacks support. If the shortwave in the NW is left intact you get the gfs result

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GeorgiaGirl link said:
[quote author=Mrgolf link=topic=80.msg7203#msg7203 date=1483379523]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg7198#msg7198 date=1483379178]
I see Allan just tweeted about the 1/6-7 1988 storm. It's a similar setup and it shows how you have to have wave separation and a consolidated wave to get high precip amounts

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Click to expand...

SD, does any part of the gfs run look believable to you? Thats alot of snow for the south. I wasnt sure.
[/quote]

The setup is very possible. A lot of what the gfs is showing is ice on the southern side of it.
[/quote]
Very possible...I would put the ice/sleet line from Birmingham, Atlanta, to Raleigh. If some of those GEFS members had been at a higher resolution. we would have seen even crazier numbers in parts of the South.

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Oh man this is a beautiful map! I just got done reading 25 pages to catch up on these exciting snow developments for most of the board. This has truly been one of the most fun storms to track in years. I just want to say thank you to SD, Storm5 and all others who made this site possible after T.W went down. Here's to a a giant snow for all off us on the board.

Edit: I accidentally posted this in the January discussion thread so I will now post it over here also.

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