ghost1
Member
SimeonNC link said:The models have no idea what to do with this storm.
Storm?
SimeonNC link said:The models have no idea what to do with this storm.
They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NCmetwannabe link said:[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5960#msg5960 date=1483248206]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg5957#msg5957 date=1483248091]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5952#msg5952 date=1483247730]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5950#msg5950 date=1483247346]
Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday
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That's a really good question..... It could be any one of the global models. However, what I look at, is a super-blend of the trends in the European and GFS ensemble mean. If this storm is going to happen, you will notice an upward trend in the means. Also, at some point the Euro will show a bomb off the coast. It has a bias of doing that. Watch the western ridge, taller is better. Energy can "dig" easier to the lower latitudes and phasing is more likely. Lastly, note the trends in the 50/50 low position. That will provide the needed confluence and keep the storm from cutting. Cold air should not be an issue this time. Hope that helpssnowcrazy link said:I have a few questions to ask for anyone that is more model savvy than me.At 6-7 days out what model do you think is the best? This is the time the GFS often loses a storm for a few days. If things start trending back good what model should pick up on it first, I'm just asking based on the models history. Just wanting to find out the overall tendencies of the models at all ranges.
Snowfan link said:Better do my special snow dance again
NCSNOW link said:If Trump would apoint me secretary of state, the first thing I'd do is fly to Europe and make some knucklehead run the euro op before midnight. The amount of sleep I loose in the winter.ugh
Actually, I see more of Jan 2003 type storm with this one..... High ratios and a lee trough. Will likely enhance the snow totals in the western piedmont of NC.Cad Wedge NC link said:December 2000
It depends on the situation. I like to look at the most widely used models to see the the differences and similarities between models. Sometimes you have to use a blend of models. The NWS does that, they use a blend of models that have similarities. That's why I mentioned that, what ever models agree with the most, that is what is the most probable outcome.snowcrazy link said:I have a few questions to ask for anyone that is more model savvy than me.At 6-7 days out what model do you think is the best? This is the time the GFS often loses a storm for a few days. If things start trending back good what model should pick up on it first, I'm just asking based on the models history. Just wanting to find out the overall tendencies of the models at all ranges.