bouncycorn
Meteorologist
The canadian setup is the same as the gfs... just mildly different surface projections. Both are poor setups because they have a + trough to our north. We need a negative tilted phaser from our west... not north.
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SimeonNC
Member
Cold is #1, I rather see the issues we are having now with the energy than us having a good storm but very marginal temps. If some of you guys wanna cliff-jump fine with me.
Storm5
Member
cmc looks much better vs the gfs . does not drag a** with the energybouncycorn link said:
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the cmc is a great setupStorm5 link said:
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I agree storm, the 0z GFS tries to suppress the moisture, not unlike the CMC. A weak (1018mb) low is poping up further down stream at 156 on CMC but I was hoping it will have it poping up at least over the northern central GOM or at least on the coast. Also, there would be good snows cause there would be no ice. The thickness values are perfect for good snow growth.
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Storm5
Member
Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday
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Storm5
Member
gonna be two seperate waves on the gefs .....quick hitter Thursday then something in the Friday -Sunday period
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They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NCStorm5 link said:
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Storm5
Member
huge change on the eps . all very very light systems
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Trying to figure out what's holding that energy back on the GFS. Looks like to me those two HPs is what's holding that energy back. The 0z CMC has those two HPs but the energy slips off to east of the four corners before the high pressure moves ahead of the energy. Those highs are going to play a big role of what pans out.
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whatalife
Moderator
Not looking good as last night...LOL! Good times ahead...Storm5 link said:
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Storm5
Member
18z mean
00z mean
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00z mean
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They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NCSD link said:
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When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week
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whatalife
Moderator
SMH!Storm5 link said:18z mean
00z mean
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whatalife
Moderator
They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NCmetwannabe link said:
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[/quote]
When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week
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Yep going to be a lot of ups and downs...
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They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NCmetwannabe link said:
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[/quote]
When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week
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[/quote]
Yep. There is good agreement for some snow Thursday but that's about it. They are all over the place with totals and low strength. Then after that it's just a mess.
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They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NCSD link said:
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[/quote]
When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week
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[/quote]
Yep. There is good agreement for some snow Thursday but that's about it. They are all over the place with totals and low strength. Then after that it's just a mess.
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[/quote]
Right now Thursday has my interest more than the potential 2nd "event", especially for us. Seeing that coastal on most of the members shows some promise.... although it almost reminds me of the big storm that never was for NC, the one that burned all tv Mets, I don't remember date but it's why Fishel is so conservative to this day.
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Storm5
Member
it's fun watching different regions react to different op runs and enensemble runs. one night region A is fired up and 24 hours later it's region B
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SimeonNC
Member
The models have no idea what to do with this storm.
I have a few questions to ask for anyone that is more model savvy than me.At 6-7 days out what model do you think is the best? This is the time the GFS often loses a storm for a few days. If things start trending back good what model should pick up on it first, I'm just asking based on the models history. Just wanting to find out the overall tendencies of the models at all ranges.
