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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

These models appear to be really struggling since the disturbance and 50/50 low were sampled... Again though we may see ANOTHER sudden change sometime tomorrow or Monday. Wouldn't be surprising...
 
metwannabe link said:
I'd take that trough digging just a bit more, go negative tilt, late blooming coastal ENC special please.... selfish I know.  These model swings are crazy but it's why we love it right?

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I'm getting interested in Thursday/Friday. That system brings a lot of moisture and dynamics with it to be a glorified clipper

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Storm5 link said:
no way to spin this run if your wanting winter weather

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This timeframe we usually have storms disappear! It'll be back in a few days! Give me a solid 4-6 days of cold, and I'll take my chances
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg5898#msg5898 date=1483244165]
I'd take that trough digging just a bit more, go negative tilt, late blooming coastal ENC special please.... selfish I know.  These model swings are crazy but it's why we love it right?

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I'm getting interested in Thursday/Friday. That system brings a lot of moisture and dynamics with it to be a glorified clipper

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[/quote]
We've had some good luck with glorified strippers.... I mean clippers

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I thought I read somewhere that they were sampled by something in Alaska or Canada and that caused the crazy change and the sudden flip to colder weather in the long range.

Too early to cliff dive, but outside of the Carolinas everyone is apparently dry in this run.
 
so we went from ovverunning, to an Ohio valley special , to a gulf runner and now we are hoping a late east coast bloomer. hell now I want a damn tropical system

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bouncycorn link said:
Not a bad run.. We just need the pacific energy to move on in and make us a storm in the gulf in later frames  :D
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Yes, that low coming up at 108-114 pops up way too early...needs to be back down stream.

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Canadian looks different than the gfs so far. Doesn't tuck the energy under the closed ridge.

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One thing that is evident is the models are really struggling with the pattern change. The main reason for this storm ending up looking much better in the first place was the warmer pattern that favored the southeast ridge just disappeared completely in one run for every model except the CMC.
 
Ensembles should be fun!
 
Canadian kicks out the energy. Should be an interesting run when the precip maps come out

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Snowfan link said:
Oh how the GFS changes basically EVERY run.
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It's obvious that the models haven't gotten a clear handle on the new pattern yet. This always happens in pattern changes. Don't get caught up in the specifics. Look for trends... and right now the trend toward a taller west coast ridge seems to be emerging. This is a good thing. Get the cold established and we will go from there.
 
can't wait for the " the energy isn't sampled yet comments" those are favorite during winter fails

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