Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Storm5]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6032#msg6032 date=1483279231]
so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

The models are poorly handling this wave, we should accept that anything is possible at this point and it won't be until tomorrow or Tuesday that we can get a good handle on this.
[/quote]
I agree there is a little time left. but not doubt this has trended the wrong way over the last few days. I don't see this going back to the nice overrunning idea that was showing last week which would have put more people in play

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[WXinCanton]

Are jumping the cliff and cliff jumping the same?  Jumping over the cliff?

 

[SnowHusky]

who  jump ?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

I'm saying that, I'm sure some members have jumped, even the ones that don't post anything.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

 

[Zonas]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SnowHusky]

12z will be coming out soon. We're getting into that 3-5 day window. We should start to see better runs today.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

 

[whatalife]

[quote author=SimeonNC link=topic=80.msg6033#msg6033 date=1483279763]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6032#msg6032 date=1483279231]
so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

The models are poorly handling this wave, we should accept that anything is possible at this point and it won't be until tomorrow or Tuesday that we can get a good handle on this.
[/quote]
I agree there is a little time left. but not doubt this has trended the wrong way over the last few days. I don't see this going back to the nice overrunning idea that was showing last week which would have put more people in play

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I agree w/you. While things are still going back and forth the idea of a widespread overrunning event MAY be slipping away. Only time will tell and no I haven't jumped.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SnowHusky]

This is from my local NWS

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

 

[deltadog03]

I think we have some clues of what may happen here, but not set in stone for sure. I do think this is either a light band of snow for TN and NC with a massive push of cold (ie suppressed or non existant) or this could be cold chasing moisture and for most it's rain. Still plenty of time for sure, but a big event is (widespread for the SE) might be quickly fading away.

 

[DadOfJax]

Hopefully we wont see the cold push and we can get a much needed rain event across AL assuming the winter wx solutions are pretty much gone at this point.

 

[Storm5]

Hopefully we wont see the cold push and we can get a much needed rain event across AL assuming the winter wx solutions are pretty much gone at this point.

we are getting plenty of rain currently . no one wants rain as we head towards prime winter season lol

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[snowcrazy]

I sense folks giving up, still don't think the final solution is set in stone. :snowflake:

 

[GaWx]

I think we have some clues of what may happen here, but not set in stone for sure. I do think this is either a light band of snow for TN and NC with a massive push of cold (ie suppressed or non existant) or this could be cold chasing moisture and for most it's rain. Still plenty of time for sure, but a big event is (widespread for the SE) might be quickly fading away.

+1. This sums up the current situation well imo based on the model trends. You can't deny the model trends. This isn't saying it can't turn out differently and suddenly revert back to a more widespread significant SE wintry event threat since it would still be about a week away, but this has now become an "underdog" possibility and the line is going more and more against it. The chances will continue down if each run continues showing what Chris describes here.

Nevertheless, I maintain that the main CAD areas, especially in GA, are still under a higher than average threat for a major ZR/IP at some point this winter due to the current ENSO and since a large portion of prime time ZR season remains. I wouldn't knock this chance down to average or lower until well into January if nothing were to occur by then and nothing were to then be showing up in the modeling.

 

[Olaf]

I hope this trends back south to put Bama and West GA in the game. I know that we still have time, but it's looking like the normal folks who always get snow will be the ones to get it again this time if anyone. I really want to see snow.

 

[Storm5]

well we lost the para. yesterday's para runs were encouraging.  then 00z happened and the para went towards the gfs and ukmet with squash city

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[GaWx]

[quote author=DadOfJax link=topic=80.msg6046#msg6046 date=1483283109]
Hopefully we wont see the cold push and we can get a much needed rain event across AL assuming the winter wx solutions are pretty much gone at this point.

we are getting plenty of rain currently . no one wants rain as we head towards prime winter season lol

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

I have playfully said in the past that plain rain is treated as evil on weather forums by many during DJF even though plain rain dominates precip because that's what SE precip does. I noticed that this winter that plain rain might be treated differently as of early December due to drought relief but that sure changed quickly soon after the good early December rains.

 

[Storm5]

I think we have some clues of what may happen here, but not set in stone for sure. I do think this is either a light band of snow for TN and NC with a massive push of cold (ie suppressed or non existant) or this could be cold chasing moisture and for most it's rain. Still plenty of time for sure, but a big event is (widespread for the SE) might be quickly fading away.

good news is we will know within the first 10 minutes of the gfs run how H5 is shaping up....

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[SD]

It's going to be tough when we warm up week 2 of the month

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

 

[deltadog03]

[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg6044#msg6044 date=1483282267]
I think we have some clues of what may happen here, but not set in stone for sure. I do think this is either a light band of snow for TN and NC with a massive push of cold (ie suppressed or non existant) or this could be cold chasing moisture and for most it's rain. Still plenty of time for sure, but a big event is (widespread for the SE) might be quickly fading away.

good news is we will know within the first 10 minutes of the gfs run how H5 is shaping up....

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Agreed...Its funny, to me, when we get to the point of a potential threat and instead of waiting for like hr 140+ to see whats up and within the first 48-72 hours we can have a good idea...lol

 

[deltadog03]

It's going to be tough when we warm up week 2 of the month

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

Ya, we are going to see some pushback for sure, but until then looks very cold at times.

 

[Metwannabe]

Oh well only good from the 0z suites is a slight uptick in the eps, with a handful of members with a decent hit.  So at least the pattern still has some potential albeit small... I'm leaning towards the shredder doing the dirty work and spoiling it for anyone. 

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk