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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Some good ones in there.

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SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg6351#msg6351 date=1483310020]
Brrrr Atlanta area.
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That makes no sense to me. It's showing 12 near Atlanta then 21 east of Atlanta and 24 west of Atlanta and 18 north of Atlanta. According to that map, Atlanta will be the coldest place in the entire southeast. And it can't be because of snowpack because it would be mostly ice in Atlanta with more snow north of Atlanta.
[/quote]
It doesn't really either, but it just looked interesting. However, if temperatures like that occurred, it would probably be spread out and warmer, not isolated.
 
To show what a change we have seen over the last 6 hours of the GFS runs Here is a surface depiction of the SE at hour 144 from 12z vs current 18z output
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Per the 18Z GFS, this would be the biggest sleetstorm for the city of ATL and south metro ATL since the great 1988 4" mainly sleetstorm..even bigger than 2/2014 for most except maybe the northern burbs. It appears that this major sleet would get down to Tony in south metro ATL and even further south per 850's being colder than +3 C. Macon would likely get a major ZR out of this as modeled. Of course, this is just per what the model shows, not a prediction.
 
Just a tick colder and I'll be in business. Let's just hold this threat once we get under 84 hours
 
I do note that the ice accumulation ends just to my eaast.  I have seen it play out that we have to be watched for icings in Auburn.
 
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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Watching these models have given me some grey hairs this past week! While the details are unknown, it appears to me that models are trying to come to a consensus that some parts of the southeast will have moisture and cold temps next weekend. Lots more model watching ahead...
 
That is so close for Bham like always. Jefferson county almost is always one county to far south, but plenty of time.
 
That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
 
lol...I'm busy doing other things and YET AGAIN...a mic drop model run happens.

I may need to disappear for a few days for this to work out but this is really giving me vibes of February 2014...IF it happens and that was a significant southeast winter storm.
 
I'm starting to love that we have some model agreement 5 days out. Starting to look now like the chances for winter weather will start to tick up now.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
 
I'm gonna enjoy the next 6 hours until this turns into Suppression City or Cutterville. My lord.


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Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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Click to expand...
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
[/quote]

I agree you start getting gulf thunderstorms and it will rob the moisture.
 
Not wanting any kind of "bomb" until crossing over Florida.  Already bad enough as it is modeled from 18z for us down here.  Waiting until Florida cross to rapidly strengthen will help everyone involved in the Carolinas.
 
MiddleTNWx link said:
That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
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The GFS had something like this before over the weekend or it was this past Fri. I think it was. This 18z GFS run is an huge improvement. Also, the 18z GFS agreed with 12z CMC and 12z Euro.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
There we go folks, we have model agreement.

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LOL...No, no we don't. Let the models show this for 3 or 4 runs, then you have agreement.
 
There is agreement though. They all have a miller A. The cmc and euro are suppressed though


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DadOfJax link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6347#msg6347 date=1483309691]
There we go folks, we have model agreement.

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LOL...No, no we don't. Let the models show this for 3 or 4 runs, then you have agreement.
[/quote]
We have model agreement with the 12z CMC and 12z Euro. I use blends of models and not just one model.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=DadOfJax link=topic=80.msg6387#msg6387 date=1483311781]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6347#msg6347 date=1483309691]
There we go folks, we have model agreement.

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LOL...No, no we don't. Let the models show this for 3 or 4 runs, then you have agreement.
[/quote]
We have model agreement with the 12z CMC and 12z Euro. I use blends of models and not just one model.

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[/quote]
Don't forget JMA and DGEX are onboard!:)
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6389#msg6389 date=1483311871]
[quote author=DadOfJax link=topic=80.msg6387#msg6387 date=1483311781]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6347#msg6347 date=1483309691]
There we go folks, we have model agreement.

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Click to expand...

LOL...No, no we don't. Let the models show this for 3 or 4 runs, then you have agreement.
[/quote]
We have model agreement with the 12z CMC and 12z Euro. I use blends of models and not just one model.

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[/quote]
Don't forget JMA and DGEX are onboard!:)
[/quote]
Oh yeah, those models too. As I mentioned before. Which ever models agree with the most, that's the most probable outcome.

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GaWx link said:
Per the 18Z GFS, this would be the biggest sleetstorm for the city of ATL and south metro ATL since the great 1988 4" mainly sleetstorm..even bigger than 2/2014 for most except maybe the northern burbs. It appears that this major sleet would get down to Tony in south metro ATL and even further south per 850's being colder than +3 C. Macon would likely get a major ZR out of this as modeled. Of course, this is just per what the model shows, not a prediction.
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I was going to agree with you Larry. That would be a huge hit here of ZR. My guess is it would be even colder than modeled but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Lol
 
Shawn link said:
Not wanting any kind of "bomb" until crossing over Florida.  Already bad enough as it is modeled from 18z for us down here.  Waiting until Florida cross to rapidly strengthen will help everyone involved in the Carolinas.
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That screams massive ice storm for me and you Shawn
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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Click to expand...
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
[/quote]
Usually with a Gulf low, there will always be thunder storms down closer to the coastal area's. Sometimes those thunder storms can make it into colder air providing thunder snow. It just depends on the instability. The low should start "bombing" off the coast of the Atlantic.

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MiddleTNWx link said:
That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
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Is the 18z run usually not a reliable run ? Should we toss it ?
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=MiddleTNWx link=topic=80.msg6374#msg6374 date=1483311361]
That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
Click to expand...
Is the 18z run usually not a reliable run ? Should we toss it ?
[/quote]
18z is still legitimate and more valid than the 12z from today, simply because it initialized  with later information.


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I will probably do a FBT live video later if yall want to stop by and say hello.
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
[/quote]

Mack,
I don't think he is saying he wants a bomb in the Gulf. I think he's just saying that even a very weak low with those warm SST's would produce a lot of QPF. The 18Z GFS has it at 1016 mb per my source. Per history, weak Gulf lows with this kind of track have been associated with many very wet SE major winter storms with liquid equivalents up to 0.75-1.25"+ well north of the low in much of the cold sector in some cases.

Some history of 1016-18 mb Gulf lows:

1. The great 4" sleetstorm at Atlanta and great snowstorm for much of the Carolinas and far north GA of 1/1988 1/7/1988: 1018 mb
2. Another great 4" sleetstorm at Atlanta and big snow for the Carolinas 2/17-18/1979 1018 mb
3. The great blizzard of Feb. 1899: 2//11-12/1899 1017 mb

Translation:  You don't at all need or even want a strong low while in the Gulf.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg6379#msg6379 date=1483311572]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
[/quote]

Mack,
I don't think he is saying he wants a bomb in the Gulf. I think he's just saying that even a very weak low with those warm SST's would produce a lot of QPF. The 18Z GFS has it at 1016 mb per my source. Per history, weak Gulf lows wit this kind of track have been associated with many very wet SE major winter storms with liquid equivalents up to 0.75-1"+ well north of the low in much of the cold sector in sonme cases.

Some history of 1016-18 mb Gulf lows:

1. The great 4" sleetstorm at Atlanta and great snowstorm for much of the Carolinas and far north GA of 1/1988 1/7/1988: 1018 mb
2. Another great 4" sleetstorm at Atlanta and big snow for the Carolinas 2/17-18/1979 1018 mb
3. The great blizzard of Feb. 1899: 2//11-12/1879 1017 mb

Translation:  You don't at all need or even want a strong low while in the Gulf.
[/quote]
Too strong of a low will push too much warm air.


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Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg6385#msg6385 date=1483311675]
Not wanting any kind of "bomb" until crossing over Florida.  Already bad enough as it is modeled from 18z for us down here.  Waiting until Florida cross to rapidly strengthen will help everyone involved in the Carolinas.
Click to expand...
That screams massive ice storm for me and you Shawn
[/quote]

Yeah, I'm not quite feeling this event for a good snow around our parts.  I just took a peek at the pivotal weather GEFS snowfall mean, and it seems too much down this way for a mean.. but who knows.  Maybe those maps aren't separating sleet/zr either.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=MiddleTNWx link=topic=80.msg6374#msg6374 date=1483311361]
That run just made me very happy. Too bad it is the 18z run though. Lol beggers can't be choosers, so I will take it!
Click to expand...
Is the 18z run usually not a reliable run ? Should we toss it ?
[/quote] I wouldn't toss anything out with all the agreement we had today
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
[/quote]
Don't worry reality is irrelevant to some

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18Z GEFS mean is bringing more west coast energy eastward similar to the 18Z op. Trending in the right direction for sure. Should be some nice individual members.
 
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