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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

mydoortotheworld link said:
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=80.msg5589#msg5589 date=1483210287]
Why is the gfs par further north and much wetter with precip then the gfs?
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it's from yesterday's 12z run
[/quote]
Yep. Just noticed that
 
I'm hoping tonight runs will trend north, but slowly mature as we get closer to time. I've seen many storms like this  where it's supress and 3/4 days before storm it starts north trend.
 
bouncycorn link said:
At least with a cutter we get rain and MAYBE some flurries on the backside. I hope this suppression trend doesn't continue.
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I shouldn't be a cutter. The high will keep it from becoming a cutter...not unless the high pushes off to the east coast before the low coming up.

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Brick Tamland link said:
Not really any consistency with the models now, and usually isn't at this range. Main thing is there is a strong signal for a storm next weekend, and the potential is still there. Going to be until at least the middle of next week until they start showing more consistentcy.
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There is pretty good consensus among the models outside of the Canadian. I still wouldn't rule out a shift to the NW yet though.
 
The 12z Para for today should come out around the 18z OP GFS run if I'm not mistaken.  Or maybe it's not running, can't be too sure lol.
 
Curious to see if the EPS will have some good looks, like the gefs.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Not really any consistency with the models now, and usually isn't at this range. Main thing is there is a strong signal for a storm next weekend, and the potential is still there. Going to be until at least the middle of next week until they start showing more consistentcy.
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Bingo! Well said Brick!
 
GEFS probability map of 1" snow
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I'll be curious to see what the eps looks like in a little while. There isn't a clear direction one way or the other. let's remember just 24 hours ago it was doom and gloom and we were all putting our eggs in the second wave basket. The ensembles haven't been rock solid as of late and we all see how the OP runs have been.

Generally over the years we have seen extreme cold presses in the medium range relax as we move into the short range. IF we get a press like the euro and Ukmet to verify it's crush city. But I'm in the camp that believes it will ease over the coming days. Not because I'm a weenie , but just going off years past.

then the question becomes what happens to our energy?  Is it able to consolidate and make the journey across the country ? Or is a strung out mess .

I like where we are sitting at this point but there is alot to consider , alot to worry about and a long ways to go.

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I would be more concerned about suppression vs a cutter at this point folks.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
I would be more concerned about suppression vs a cutter at this point folks.
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Yep, which sucks! At least with a cutter, we get MUCH needed rain. Looks like were in an all or nothing situation.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
I would be more concerned about suppression vs a cutter at this point folks.
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I'm not even worried about the suppression this early. If we see suppression within the 3-2 day window, I'd be more concerned. The reason why I'm not concerned about suppression is because it's too early to say for sure there will be suppression. Another reason is because, I've seen models show suppression but the low actually comes further NW.

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Man what a difference a day makes. Yesterday the models crush us and today they just crush the storm completely. I will say like others have said that I still think this thing could come back north in later runs.
 
From TV Meteorologist Brad Travis in Huntsville:
European model today brings the Arctic air in a little earlier late next week and keeps the moisture to our south so it looks Cold with no snow now for next weekend. Who saw that one coming??
 
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