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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

ATLWxFan link said:
This storm has been a strong signal for days. A couple of strung out model runs are unlikely to be the final outcome.


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Well said!  Totally agree!  Anytime we get this much agreement on SOMETHING happening...then most likely something eventually comes to fruition...even if it's not in our favor. 


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SD link said:
It's going to be fun watching the models try to resolve how much energy gets sheared from the western wave before it really kicks east. We have seen situations where the models often overestimate the amount of shearing and we get a more solid wave heading east and thus we see the NW trend and a more amplified system. Also the wave timing of the northern stream is always questionable at this lead time. All in all it should be fun to watch the models over the next few days to see how they handle these 2 features.
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Great points. We won't know probably until Tuesday of what's likely to happen
 
How is the current setup compared to what the models were showing several days ago for this weekend we are in now?

Today's already a bust here after getting sleet on and off this morning into the afternoon.  Back down to 38 degrees.  Yucky day. 

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MBell link said:
How is the current setup compared to what the models were showing several days ago for this weekend we are in now?

Today's already a bust here after getting sleet on and off this morning into the afternoon.  Back down to 38 degrees.  Yucky day. 

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Oh yeah, it was a bust for here today as well. Highs we're supposed to be 48 for my area. Had rain/sleet mix earlier. It's in the lower 40s now.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=MBell link=topic=80.msg5641#msg5641 date=1483217891]
How is the current setup compared to what the models were showing several days ago for this weekend we are in now?

Today's already a bust here after getting sleet on and off this morning into the afternoon.  Back down to 38 degrees.  Yucky day. 

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Click to expand...
Oh yeah, it was a bust for here today as well. Highs we're supposed to be 48 for my area. Had rain/sleet mix earlier. It's in the lower 40s now.

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[/quote]
Mine was all over the place all week.  Earlier in the week they said 50s then went 45 then back to 50 then to 47 and now 42 which we hit earlier.  These models just aren't handling the pattern well at all.  Lots of room for error it appears these cycles. 


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SimeonNC link said:
Can someone post the EPS means or members?
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,
7f58c51d0f88b97cd9d83a7a7e41542b.jpg


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CummingWx link said:
I suppose it can't be a bad thing that FFC lowered my high and put in snow chances (albeit slight).

Thursday NightA 20 percent chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
FridayA slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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They just put out Saturday's forecast:

Friday NightA 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28.
SaturdayA chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.

I'll take a 30 pop for snow a week in advance with a low of 28!!!!
 
MBell link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5644#msg5644 date=1483218418]
[quote author=MBell link=topic=80.msg5641#msg5641 date=1483217891]
How is the current setup compared to what the models were showing several days ago for this weekend we are in now?

Today's already a bust here after getting sleet on and off this morning into the afternoon.  Back down to 38 degrees.  Yucky day. 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, it was a bust for here today as well. Highs we're supposed to be 48 for my area. Had rain/sleet mix earlier. It's in the lower 40s now.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Mine was all over the place all week.  Earlier in the week they said 50s then went 45 then back to 50 then to 47 and now 42 which we hit earlier.  These models just aren't handling the pattern well at all.  Lots of room for error it appears these cycles. 


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[/quote]

It actually managed to hit 46.3 here at 12:06pm before it went down to 39.4 with the rain/sleet. Now steady at 40.7.
 
They got a chance of rain /snow in forecast for my area, from Thurs night through Saturday.
 
Spanarkle08 link said:
New to your site...what's the word on NW Tn during this time period....Thanks
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heck we trying to figure what the word is  for the entire Southeast, lol.welcome aboard
 
Bsudweather link said:
They got a chance of rain /snow in forecast for my area, from Thurs night through Saturday.
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Geez. With 36+ hours of snow it's gonna be piling up like crazy. I might have to build a snow tunnel.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg5651#msg5651 date=1483218973]
They got a chance of rain /snow in forecast for my area, from Thurs night through Saturday.
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Geez. With 36+ hours of snow it's gonna be piling up like crazy. I might have to build a snow tunnel.
[/quote]

On a serious note though, it's not often for a forecast that far in advance to have a 30 pop for just snow. This could really turn into something good for us, whether it be SN/IP or ZR. I really don't care, I just want a winter storm of any kind.
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg5654#msg5654 date=1483219102]
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg5651#msg5651 date=1483218973]
They got a chance of rain /snow in forecast for my area, from Thurs night through Saturday.
Click to expand...
Geez. With 36+ hours of snow it's gonna be piling up like crazy. I might have to build a snow tunnel.
[/quote]

On a serious note though, it's not often for a forecast that far in advance to have a 30 pop for just snow. This could really turn into something good for us, whether it be SN/IP or ZR. I really don't care, I just want a winter storm of any kind.
[/quote]
I'll take any winter storm, except for a ZR storm.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=80.msg5657#msg5657 date=1483219509]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg5654#msg5654 date=1483219102]
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg5651#msg5651 date=1483218973]
They got a chance of rain /snow in forecast for my area, from Thurs night through Saturday.
Click to expand...
Geez. With 36+ hours of snow it's gonna be piling up like crazy. I might have to build a snow tunnel.
[/quote]

On a serious note though, it's not often for a forecast that far in advance to have a 30 pop for just snow. This could really turn into something good for us, whether it be SN/IP or ZR. I really don't care, I just want a winter storm of any kind.
[/quote]
I'll take any winter storm, except for a ZR storm.

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[/quote]
Yeah no ZR please.  Don't mind minor but anything more and the house will be in danger with the towering pines on top of the 100ft rise in my backyard.  Yuck!  Haven't had a bad ice storm since I moved here two years ago so I know it's coming. 


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MBell link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5661#msg5661 date=1483220535]
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=80.msg5657#msg5657 date=1483219509]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg5654#msg5654 date=1483219102]
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg5651#msg5651 date=1483218973]
They got a chance of rain /snow in forecast for my area, from Thurs night through Saturday.
Click to expand...
Geez. With 36+ hours of snow it's gonna be piling up like crazy. I might have to build a snow tunnel.
[/quote]

On a serious note though, it's not often for a forecast that far in advance to have a 30 pop for just snow. This could really turn into something good for us, whether it be SN/IP or ZR. I really don't care, I just want a winter storm of any kind.
[/quote]
I'll take any winter storm, except for a ZR storm.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yeah no ZR please.  Don't mind minor but anything more and the house will be in danger with the towering pines on top of the 100ft rise in my backyard.  Yuck!  Haven't had a bad ice storm since I moved here two years ago so I know it's coming. 


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[/quote]

This Summer GA power actually cut down alot of trees in my area that were near power lines so that hopefully loss of power won't happen even with an icestorm. But still, icestorms (more than .10 but only up to about .25) are so beautiful to look at. Anything more, I'm not gonna say I'd rather have rain, but it's just hard to say I'd rather have freezing rain change to rain, which in my area usually happens.
 
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