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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=modelwatcher link=topic=80.msg5568#msg5568 date=1483209210]
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg5565#msg5565 date=1483209056]
Suppression city on this run!
Click to expand...

Yep, :(
[/quote] why are you sad ? I thought suppression is what we want at this point in the game
[/quote]

As we are getting closer in time I would like to see the models start trending north, not agreeing with each other (for the most part). Still a couple of days before the general idea locks in.
 
You all are pretty happy with suppression, but i've seen suppression ruin fantasy storms several times.. even last year.
 
They wouldn't start trending north until at least Monday or Tuesday. That's how it usually goes.
 
Seems like after last night's 00z runs things have now gone downhill. I hope the models start trending in our favor again shortly
 
Euro strings the energy like the GFS OP...first piece was a little closer than GFS when it pops a low of the MA, close to being a big hit for Eastern NC...Second wave that makes it on GFS, gets shredded on the EURO

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I could see the suppression not being an issue when push comes to shove... but the real problem here is the energy being strung out. If the energy weren't strung out, we'd have an unsuppressed system moving right under the high pressure.
 
Are y'all serious? Y'all realize that storms trend north as we get closer. Y'all really want the CMC to come true and get a 46'degree rain? Cmon
 
Just like with Matthew, if its going to happen, the positive trends will happen on Sunday/Monday.

Suppression really is NBD with me for now but these trends are going to take the western part of the south out of the game...
 
ECMWF loves to hold energy back...but GFS loves to be progressive. Right now, our problem is too much energy being held back/strung out and both models are showing it.
 
This storm has been a strong signal for days. A couple of strung out model runs are unlikely to be the final outcome.


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Maybe I'm just superstitious, but I like where we are with the GFS/EURO/UK right now. Realistically, we'll possibly be somewhere between those three models and the Canadian which I think would satisfy mostly everyone on this board.
 
ZR storms bring back memories. While growing up I thought it was normal to have a ice storm once a year. Always happened. Usually a week without electricity. The ice storms do not happen like they use to. I think trimming the trees near power lines help with outages.  I have been through some zn monsters (one was 4 inches). I remember two of the zn storms specifically which the transformers were blowing. Going to sleep while it sounded like bombs blowing up and hearing trees/limbs falling. The longest I remember going without electricity was 2 1/2 weeks. I still remember how strange it felt when the electricity and the heat came back.
 
Not really any consistency with the models now, and usually isn't at this range. Main thing is there is a strong signal for a storm next weekend, and the potential is still there. Going to be until at least the middle of next week until they start showing more consistentcy.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Not really any consistency with the models now, and usually isn't at this range. Main thing is there is a strong signal for a storm next weekend, and the potential is still there. Going to be until at least the middle of next week until they start showing more consistentcy.
Click to expand...
finally a voice of reason. Thank you brick and I agree
 
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