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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Gonna have to be patient. These vorts will be getting onto west coast in a day or 2. Step 1, cold is consistently modeled to be there . 50/50, pac ridge etc and that's the hardest part of the equation. Step 2 just gonna have to be patient another 24 to 48 hrs. But I liked the gfs 2 to 3 inch high ratio snow for mby. Also know it'll be totally different by this time tommorrow
 
Oh Canada! Sad I'm putting my hope on the CMC..LOL!
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Sorry about my post earlier, I was looking as the wrong GFS map on accident, for some reason. Guess I'm tired
 
Canadian is really the look most of us want at 500mb it even has a modest phase.

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Canadian actually does the same exact thing with the upper level energy. Brings a s/w along the 50/50 with a + tilt.
 
GFS all over the place today. But looks like all the runs have had at least some snow here.
 
Storm5 link said:
can't wait for the " the energy isn't sampled yet comments" those are favorite during winter fails

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I can't wait till the energy to get sampled.!! Lol
 
HartselleWeather link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5924#msg5924 date=1483245141]
can't wait for the " the energy isn't sampled yet comments" those are favorite during winter fails

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I can't wait till the energy to get sampled.!! Lol
[/quote]
In all honesty in this case we do need sampling or to get closer to verification time.  The models are obviously struggling with the west coast ridge and how the energy interacts. Also the impulse the gfs has generating snow here is currently over eastern Russia

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The canadian setup is the same as the gfs... just mildly different surface projections. Both are poor setups because they have a + trough to our north. We need a negative tilted phaser from our west... not north.
 
Cold is #1, I rather see the issues we are having now with the energy than us having a good storm but very marginal temps. If some of you guys wanna cliff-jump fine with me.
 
bouncycorn link said:
The canadian setup is the same as the gfs... just mildly different surface projections. Both are poor setups because they have a + trough to our north. We need a negative tilted phaser from our west... not north.
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cmc looks much better vs the gfs . does not drag a** with the energy
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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5940#msg5940 date=1483246111]
CMC is cold like the 0z GFS.

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the cmc is a great setup

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[/quote]
I agree storm, the 0z GFS tries to suppress the moisture, not unlike the CMC. A weak (1018mb) low is poping up further down stream at 156 on CMC but I was hoping it will have it poping up at least over the northern central GOM or at least on the coast. Also, there would be good snows cause there would be no ice. The thickness values are perfect for good snow growth.

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Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday

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gonna be two seperate waves on the gefs .....quick hitter Thursday then something in the Friday -Sunday period

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Storm5 link said:
Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday

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They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NC

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Trying to figure out what's holding that energy back on the GFS. Looks like to me those two HPs is what's holding that energy back. The 0z CMC has those two HPs but the energy slips off to east of the four corners before the high pressure moves ahead of the energy. Those highs are going to play a big role of what pans out. 

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Storm5 link said:
huge change on the eps . all very very light systems

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Not looking good as last night...LOL! Good times ahead...


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SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5950#msg5950 date=1483247346]
Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday

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They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NC

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[/quote]
When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week

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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5952#msg5952 date=1483247730]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5950#msg5950 date=1483247346]
Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday

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They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NC

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[/quote]
When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week

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[/quote]
Yep going to be a lot of ups and downs...


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metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5952#msg5952 date=1483247730]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5950#msg5950 date=1483247346]
Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday

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Click to expand...
They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NC

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[/quote]
When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week

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[/quote]
Yep. There is good agreement for some snow Thursday but that's about it. They are all over the place with totals and low strength. Then after that it's just a mess.

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SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg5957#msg5957 date=1483248091]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5952#msg5952 date=1483247730]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5950#msg5950 date=1483247346]
Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday

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Click to expand...
They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NC

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[/quote]
When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week

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[/quote]
Yep. There is good agreement for some snow Thursday but that's about it. They are all over the place with totals and low strength. Then after that it's just a mess.

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[/quote]
Right now Thursday has my interest more than the potential 2nd "event", especially for us.  Seeing that coastal on most of the members shows some promise....  although it almost reminds me of the big storm that never was for NC, the one that burned all tv Mets, I don't remember date but it's why Fishel is so conservative to this day.

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it's fun watching different regions react to different op runs and enensemble runs. one night region A is fired up and 24 hours later it's region B

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I have a few questions to ask for anyone that is more model savvy than me.At 6-7 days out what model do you think is the best? This is the time the GFS often loses a storm for a few days. If things start trending back good what model should pick up on it first, I'm just asking based on the models history. Just wanting to find out the overall tendencies of the models at all ranges.
 
If Trump would apoint me secretary of state, the first thing I'd do is fly to Europe and make some knucklehead run the euro op before midnight. The amount of sleep I loose in the winter.ugh
 
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