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bouncycorn
Meteorologist
OK Folks, get some sleep. 06z GFS/GEFS and 12z suites are right around the corner! ;D
I know its one set of runs, but I wonder what is being sampled different/sampled incorrectly that had most of the 12z guidance throw the idea away with the energy back there. These 00z runs were huge changes. GFS, CMC, Euro.
All the guidance at 00z moves the initial cutter further East and stronger....slows the flow and allows the high to build in quickertellicowx link said:
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Oh so even the energy slowing down/getting "stuck" like that is the result of the 50/50 idea?
All the guidance at 00z moves the initial cutter further East and stronger....slows the flow and allows the high to build in quickerShawn link said:
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Oh so even the energy slowing down/getting "stuck" like that is the result of the 50/50 idea?
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It's one of the pieces imo
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N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
We go from a cutter to a massive winter storm , to a very suppressed run. This is why I love weather
I would like to note one more time to the guests, if this threat starts to materialize into a legit event, we are going to have to disable guest browsing of the forum. Don't worry, you won't be locked out of the site as a whole, but you will need to register to read posts.
We aren't doing it to be mean or anything, but we have limited server resources right now with the website being newer. Therefore, we want our members to be able to access the site to the best of our ability.
We aren't doing it to be mean or anything, but we have limited server resources right now with the website being newer. Therefore, we want our members to be able to access the site to the best of our ability.
If you go back and run thru the 12z Euro and compare it to the 00z, you can see how big of a role the initial cutter plays. At 12z the low is weaker and further north as it retrograde back across Canada, while the response on the West is a slower press of the High diving SE allowing pieces of energy to undercut it. On the 00z, it's further south and stronger, while the West responds by building the high quicker SE, blocking and holding the energy along the West coast.
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WilkesboroDude
Member
Those 30-50% odds from the WPC are going to continue to fill in for NC pretty soon. Won't be long before the local NWS has to respond to those in their HWO's early this week, maybe as early as Monday.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
These are some of the most insane run-to-run swings I've seen in the guidance in quite some time, even in the ensemble suites for a system that's now (supposedly) 5-6 days out for those east of the rockies (referencing the first wave)... Looks like everything slows down so much that it gives more time for the secondary wave to come out & there's not even much of an initial wave at all, majority of the energy consolidates into the secondary disturbance which comes out ~day 8... The northern US snow cover extent was much improved, esp over PA, OH, IN, & IL ahead of this secondary disturbance since the initial cutter moving thru is now being progged further south. Definitely a step in the right direction. Ugh, what a forecasting headache this has been
Jon
Member
Yeah this is wild, don't remember a swing like this especially with all models drastically swinging as you said. Ridge over Texas at 00z 1/8 is interesting how do you figure this helps or hurts us? It has shown up for the first time this evening on the GFS GEFS CMC and Euro. May help the shortwave dig but could it eventually overwhelm the pattern? Scratching my head here.Webberweather53 link said:
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Yeah, this is one large headache lol...definitely one of the biggest swings I have seen in a long time regarding the initial wave (Cutter). That system plays a large role in the evolution, and we can't even get a good agreement on that lolWebberweather53 link said:
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah this is wild, don't remember a swing like this especially with all models drastically swinging as you said. Ridge over Texas at 00z 1/8 is interesting how do you figure this helps or hurts us? It has shown up for the first time this evening on the GFS GEFS CMC and Euro. May help the shortwave dig but could it eventually overwhelm the pattern? Scratching my head here.Jon link said:
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I definitely think this scenario helps our chances w/ a secondary wave, the entire pattern in the Pacific-North American sector slowed down in a big way on the GFS, starting with the trough over the west coast, this allows the wavelengths to sharpen/amplify & allots more time for the heights to build in the wake of the secondary shortwave, hence the ridge over TX and the southern Rockies. If this slowing trend continued we'd probably end up with an even stronger cut-off, bowling ball ULL plowing somewhere thru the southern tier, and of course if that panned out then all bets would be really off because we know how well the models handle bowling ball ULLs
Shinrin
Member
Hello one and all.. I heard there may be some winter weather soon, so here's hoping we'll get something more than a dusting this coming year.
(For anyone wondering I am the Shinrin from the talk weather forum, sad to see it down)
(For anyone wondering I am the Shinrin from the talk weather forum, sad to see it down)
I'm up lol. Map pleaseaccu35 link said:
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Lol...that is the map, nothing...jk. It supports the major flip with the rest of the modeling world. The pattern slows way down, and the few members that do have a system are pushed back to Day 9/10 or later.
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accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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- 8,398
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- 9,849
I'm up lol. Map pleasetellicowx link said:
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Lol...that is the map, nothing...jk. It supports the major flip with the rest of the modeling world. The pattern slows way down, and the few members that do have a system are pushed back to Day 9/10 or later.
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[/quote] I'm at work so I can't pull anything. I think I'll go with GFS solution for now. Who knows anything can happen at this point