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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 link said:
18z gefs
af89f46b2d7c43e2d08260fda7128c07.jpg


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wow, that's very encouraging
 
And here is the 18z GEFS mean snowfall through 192:

meansnowfall.gif
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5762#msg5762 date=1483226292]
After comparing the 12z GFS and the 18z the low doesn't come up because of the suppression. The high is further south than 12z GFS. The positions that the high is from the 12z is what we want. The energy out west is important but that's not where the low will be coming out of. The low should actually be coming up at the tail end of that frontal boundary. See the moisture down in the western Gulf on the 18z? That's where the low should be coming up but it can't cause of that high is too far south. Some of the things from the 18z is not right IMO. The energy that you guys are looking at finely gets kicked down at 168-174. That wave is a separate threat from the 18z run.

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the energy we are talking is the key energy to what we have been talking for the last 48 hours

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[/quote]
Ooops...I thought the energy and low was coming from Cuba

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5771#msg5771 date=1483226772]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5762#msg5762 date=1483226292]
After comparing the 12z GFS and the 18z the low doesn't come up because of the suppression. The high is further south than 12z GFS. The positions that the high is from the 12z is what we want. The energy out west is important but that's not where the low will be coming out of. The low should actually be coming up at the tail end of that frontal boundary. See the moisture down in the western Gulf on the 18z? That's where the low should be coming up but it can't cause of that high is too far south. Some of the things from the 18z is not right IMO. The energy that you guys are looking at finely gets kicked down at 168-174. That wave is a separate threat from the 18z run.

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the energy we are talking is the key energy to what we have been talking for the last 48 hours

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[/quote]
Ooops...I thought the energy and low was coming from Cuba

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[/quote]
Past runs did show the low coming from that energy that we've been keeping an eye on. From the 18z the low would not come from that energy.

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SD link said:
I can already tell my productivity at work will be around 50% of normal next week

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Haha I'm right there with you thankfully it's a short week.

good 'ol 18z never seems to disappoint. 

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Yep anywhere from 9-10 members for my areea imsay say ten but myneyes may be wishcasting on one.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5780#msg5780 date=1483228451]
I have 17 of 21 what can go wrong lol

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15 and 3, please. The control even.
[/quote]
Those are mic droppers on winter lol. I'd take anything

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RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5767#msg5767 date=1483226558]
18z gefs
af89f46b2d7c43e2d08260fda7128c07.jpg


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9 members showing winter precip for my area
[/quote]

One order of e0 please.  And a side of any two frames from the last line.  Thanks!


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SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5783#msg5783 date=1483228701]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5780#msg5780 date=1483228451]
I have 17 of 21 what can go wrong lol

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15 and 3, please. The control even.
[/quote]
Those are mic droppers on winter lol. I'd take anything

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[/quote]

I'm just a little excited.
aoHFoG.gif
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5784#msg5784 date=1483228857]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5783#msg5783 date=1483228701]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5780#msg5780 date=1483228451]
I have 17 of 21 what can go wrong lol

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Click to expand...

15 and 3, please. The control even.
[/quote]
Those are mic droppers on winter lol. I'd take anything

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[/quote]

I'm just a little excited.
aoHFoG.gif

[/quote]
Is this a live feed from storms house

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Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5784#msg5784 date=1483228857]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5783#msg5783 date=1483228701]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5780#msg5780 date=1483228451]
I have 17 of 21 what can go wrong lol

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Click to expand...

15 and 3, please. The control even.
[/quote] Lol, love it
Those are mic droppers on winter lol. I'd take anything

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[/quote]

I'm just a little excited.
aoHFoG.gif

[/quote]
 
I guess if your not in a good spot this run, you wait till the next one lol. What's that they say about being in the bullseye this far out?
 
accu35 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5787#msg5787 date=1483229016]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5784#msg5784 date=1483228857]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5783#msg5783 date=1483228701]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5780#msg5780 date=1483228451]
I have 17 of 21 what can go wrong lol

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Click to expand...

15 and 3, please. The control even.
[/quote] Lol, love it
Those are mic droppers on winter lol. I'd take anything

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

I'm just a little excited.
aoHFoG.gif

[/quote]
[/quote] lol love it
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5783#msg5783 date=1483228701]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5780#msg5780 date=1483228451]
I have 17 of 21 what can go wrong lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

15 and 3, please. The control even.
[/quote]
Those are mic droppers on winter lol. I'd take anything

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[/quote]
I got 30 minutes of light sleet today, with a temp of 47! Atleast I didn't get blanked this winter!! I don't care what happens next week!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5784#msg5784 date=1483228857]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5783#msg5783 date=1483228701]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5780#msg5780 date=1483228451]
I have 17 of 21 what can go wrong lol

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Click to expand...

15 and 3, please. The control even.
[/quote]
Those are mic droppers on winter lol. I'd take anything

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[/quote]
I got 30 minutes of light sleet today, with a temp of 47! Atleast I didn't get blanked this winter!! I don't care what happens next week!
[/quote]
State of emergency?

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No model agreement between 18z GFS or 12z Euro with the energy. 12z Euro has is coming further south and has it dissipating. Completely opposite from the 18z GFS.

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If we go back to the 0z GFS from today, the energy was further south and there is a transfer to the Gulf coastal low at 180. That is the low that I've been talking about. Some energy in the western Gulf from the frontal boundary. That's we're the actual low forms.

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SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5787#msg5787 date=1483229016]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5784#msg5784 date=1483228857]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5783#msg5783 date=1483228701]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5780#msg5780 date=1483228451]
I have 17 of 21 what can go wrong lol

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

15 and 3, please. The control even.
[/quote]
Those are mic droppers on winter lol. I'd take anything

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

I'm just a little excited.
aoHFoG.gif

[/quote]
Is this a live feed from storms house

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[/quote]
hahah no.....I'm just preparing for the 00z runs https://vimeo.com/197646615

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18z DGEX is similar from the 0z GFS from today...but the DGEX doesn't have a consolidated low like the 0z GFS. The 0z GFS from today has it along the Gulf coast. The low becomes consolidated at 174 on the 18z DGEX which is off the NC coast. The placement of the energy is correct from the 18z DGEX.

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I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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Storm5 link said:
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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  Yes, it was a "run for the ages". One thing I have noticed living here for 52 years is 1) The NW trend that seems to affect some storms but not all. 2) The push of cold air is never quite as strong once you get closer to verification time. 3) If you are in the "bulls-eye" seven days out, you are not there when it's "storm-time".
  All that being said, I like the strung-out suppressed look at this range. It gives us some latitude to work with. However, I believe that we will see a more consolidated storm before all is said and done. Question is which piece of energy will it be?
 
Storm5 link said:
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5802#msg5802 date=1483232268]
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

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[/quote]
omgd your using the dgex to support a crazy OP run ??? If there isn't consolidated energy there won't be a low

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the only thing worse than talking about the unrealistic 0z GFS is talking about the even more unrealistic DGEX lmfao
 
Brent link said:
the only thing worse than talking about the unrealistic 0z GFS is talking about the even more unrealistic DGEX lmfao
Click to expand...
Hahaha welcome to winter

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5808#msg5808 date=1483232912]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5802#msg5802 date=1483232268]
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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Click to expand...
I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

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[/quote]
omgd your using the dgex to support a crazy OP run ??? If there isn't consolidated energy there won't be a low

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[/quote]
The totals from the 0z GFS from today was crazy, yes, I agree. I'm not even focusing on the totals. I'm more focused on placement of the high, shield of the moisture and thickness values. What ever models agree with each other the most of, the more likely  that's what the outcome will be. Storm5, I'm not trying to bash you.

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5808#msg5808 date=1483232912]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5802#msg5802 date=1483232268]
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

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Click to expand...
I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

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[/quote]
omgd your using the dgex to support a crazy OP run ??? If there isn't consolidated energy there won't be a low

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[/quote]

Anything goes when you try to justify your wishcast!
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5810#msg5810 date=1483233504]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5808#msg5808 date=1483232912]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5802#msg5802 date=1483232268]
I'm still trying to figure out why we are still talking about the 00z run. I guess cause it was so unrealistic with snow totals that's it's still in people's head

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I still talk about it cause, just because a past model run is not a current run that doesn't mean that it's not a vaild run. Also, it makes better since of the track of low considering that the NAO is projected to go negative at the beginning of the event time period. The 18z DGEX supports the 0z GFS from today.

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[/quote]
omgd your using the dgex to support a crazy OP run ??? If there isn't consolidated energy there won't be a low

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[/quote]
The totals from the 0z GFS from today was crazy, yes, I agree. I'm not even focusing on the totals. I'm more focused on placement of the high, shield of the moisture and thickness values. What ever models agree with each other the most of, the more likely  that's what the outcome will be. Storm5, I'm not trying to bash you.

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[/quote]

That couldn't be further from the truth. For example, the DGEX, JMA, GEM could all agree on one scenario, and the GFS and Euro agree on a different....what is more likely the outome?
 
Anyone seen the latest para?  The latest one I could find is 0z from yesterday. Pretty good ice for my area!
 
It takes time for the GFS/EURO to agree on something a couple days before the event.
 
Aubighitter link said:
Anyone seen the latest para?  The latest one I could find is 0z from yesterday. Pretty good ice for my area!
Click to expand...

Starting at hrs 180-192
 
Have a feeling like this GFS run will be cold/ dry however, I am not throwing in the towel before we are in 3 to 5 day range where storm disappear!
 
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