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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

That's a mean looking mean.
IMG_3803.PNG.74f1c137b52914f0644109c2486f3e5d.PNG
 
Bsudweather link said:
Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
Click to expand...
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days. 

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Stormlover link said:
GFS give me at Huntsville a Thunderstorm and 34 next Sat night at 6PM...good grief
192 01/08 00Z  34     34      57      5    0.54  0.05    544    558    3.4 -20.4 1018.1 100 -TSRA 021OVC088 112BKN198 228SCT300  34    33  0.0
Click to expand...
So, so, close! Dang it!  :'(
 
Crap map, no inbetween that show much..  but here is tonight's UKMET (notice the low off the NC coast not nearly as strong as GFS OP one would guess with it):

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
 
Stormlover link said:
GFS give me at Huntsville a Thunderstorm and 34 next Sat night at 6PM...good grief
192 01/08 00Z  34     34      57      5    0.54  0.05    544    558    3.4 -20.4 1018.1 100 -TSRA 021OVC088 112BKN198 228SCT300  34    33  0.0
Click to expand...
Gulf lows and Gulf coastal lows can produce some strong instability.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg5252#msg5252 date=1483161676]
Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
Click to expand...
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

And the GFS had this solution on the 12z Wednesday..... Look familiar?
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[/quote]
 
Shawn link said:
Crap map, no inbetween that show much..  but here is tonight's UKMET (notice the low off the NC coast not nearly as strong as GFS OP one would guess with it):

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
Click to expand...

That's only hr 144. The system GFS is showing is like 180hr.
 
If the GFS played out verbatim, I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Chattanooga lol...  .5" to .75" of freezing rain with 5" to 8" of snow...city would be crippled. Absolutely crazy.


bd60810a791a2af91cfc2d5efaf48a50.jpg


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Cary_Snow95 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5263#msg5263 date=1483162297]
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg5252#msg5252 date=1483161676]
Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
Click to expand...
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

And the GFS had this solution on the 12z Wednesday..... Look familiar?
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
[/quote]

No it's a totally different setup shown now.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg5261#msg5261 date=1483162212]
GFS give me at Huntsville a Thunderstorm and 34 next Sat night at 6PM...good grief
192 01/08 00Z  34     34      57      5    0.54  0.05    544    558    3.4 -20.4 1018.1 100 -TSRA 021OVC088 112BKN198 228SCT300  34    33  0.0
Click to expand...
Gulf lows and Gulf coastal lows can produce some strong instability.

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[/quote]

And that also can rob moisture from winter storms as well.
 
UKMET has probably been the most consistent with its runs the last couple of days, too.
 
bouncycorn link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg5265#msg5265 date=1483162409]
Crap map, no inbetween that show much..  but here is tonight's UKMET (notice the low off the NC coast not nearly as strong as GFS OP one would guess with it):

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
Click to expand...

That's only hr 144. The system GFS is showing is like 180hr.
[/quote]

Thanks, getting my zulu confused as usual.
 
Shawn link said:
Crap map, no inbetween that show much..  but here is tonight's UKMET (notice the low off the NC coast not nearly as strong as GFS OP one would guess with it):

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
Click to expand...
I'd be surprised if anything survived that look. Looks cold and northern stream dominate

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Ukie a lot of times is a good precursor to what the Euro is gonna try to do.

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Bsudweather link said:
Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
Click to expand...

There was already a big winter storm shown in the southeast during this time period about 2 and a half days ago on the models. It was lost after two runs and now this is that winter storm threat returning to the models.

Some areas might not get much, but usually its good news if a wintry solution comes back in the southeast.
 
bouncycorn link said:
[quote author=Cary_Snow95 link=topic=80.msg5267#msg5267 date=1483162510]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5263#msg5263 date=1483162297]
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg5252#msg5252 date=1483161676]
Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
Click to expand...
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

And the GFS had this solution on the 12z Wednesday..... Look familiar?
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
[/quote]

No it's a totally different setup shown now.
[/quote]
I should have said, the placement of the low is similar, not excact setup.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg5271#msg5271 date=1483162584]
[quote author=Cary_Snow95 link=topic=80.msg5267#msg5267 date=1483162510]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5263#msg5263 date=1483162297]
[quote author=Bsudweather link=topic=80.msg5252#msg5252 date=1483161676]
Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
Click to expand...
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

And the GFS had this solution on the 12z Wednesday..... Look familiar?
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
[/quote]

No it's a totally different setup shown now.
[/quote]
I should have said, the placement of the low is similar, not excact setup.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yeah thats all I meant by it
 
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