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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

tellicowx link said:
Low is closer to coast this run as well...NC is a step closer to something special imo

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Yep dig that trough a little more SW and it's a nice event here

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Looks like second wave is going to get shredded this run

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Every run is a different solution, oz will be totally different, lol.
 
accu35 link said:
Every run is a different solution, oz will be totally different, lol.
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This run isn't that much different than the 12z..Second wave just doesn't survive

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Ensembles will be fun for people around NC especially.  Second wave not gonna do it this run.
 
Get that second wave to survive and there could be an opening act here before the big show.
 
tellicowx link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=80.msg5689#msg5689 date=1483222791]
Every run is a different solution, oz will be totally different, lol.
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This run isn't that much different than the 12z..Second wave just doesn't survive

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[/quote]
it actually does just ends up over Montana lol

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=80.msg5689#msg5689 date=1483222791]
Every run is a different solution, oz will be totally different, lol.
Click to expand...
This run isn't that much different than the 12z..Second wave just doesn't survive

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[/quote] yes I do agree, I was jk
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=80.msg5691#msg5691 date=1483222901]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=80.msg5689#msg5689 date=1483222791]
Every run is a different solution, oz will be totally different, lol.
Click to expand...
This run isn't that much different than the 12z..Second wave just doesn't survive

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[/quote]
it actually does just ends up over Montana lol

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[/quote]
Yeah, at 12z the parent low in the Pacific breaks off a couple waves...which leads to the waves that affect the SE. This run really only breaks off the initial piece, before consolidating into one LP moving into the Cali coast.

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I like how they were more separated. I think that second wave is going to end up coming and going boom.
 
gfs looks clueless with the energy in the NW. moves it Stalls it, then has no idea when or where to send it

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192 energy looking like something good will happen for NC again.

ice breaking out in GA/SC .. snow in Upstate SC, NE GA, NC, East TN.
 
Storm5 link said:
gfs looks clueless with the energy in the NW. moves it Stalls it, then has no idea when or where to send it

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I th8nk this is the kind of setup the UKMET do3s better with. Still, looks pretty good for here.
 
Storm5 link said:
gfs looks clueless with the energy in the NW. moves it Stalls it, then has no idea when or where to send it

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Crazy different!  Haven't looked at the surface at all, kinda pointless.  Maybe if I drink enough to bring in the New Year I will get us a score.  Happy New Year everyone :)
 
WXinCanton link said:
Like Storm5 said, our energy is in Montana, lol
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Because it moves the parent low in the Pacific into the West and NW before breaking off the second piece. That delay cuts the second wave into Montana. The high in the plains is also a lot stronger following the first wave, allowing the second to cut over the top instead of tucking underneath like the 12z solution.

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Actually, I honestly have no clue what the 18z is even trying to do now lol...somehow it still manages to pop the second low off SE coast. Think GFS has started celebrating the New Year a little early lol

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That really threw me for a loop, if "potential" second wave does happen then we're a good week away to watch this. Definitely fun times ahead
 
One two punch for NC it seems. Still time for that second wave to blow up into something big.
 
Odd run.  Lets see if that energy getting "stalled" back there so long on Wave #2 continues to show.  Only last night's 00z runs started to hold it back longer.
 
I know this sounds like wishcasting but I don't buy the 18z just losing the energy in Montana for a long time like that, suppression at this point yes but the energy just stalling? No. I'm gonna wait and see what the GEFS and the 00z runs do, if the stalling trend repeats then I'l buy it.
 
The way it's going, we might be tracking this storm the whole month of January ??
 
Shawn link said:
Odd run.  Lets see if that energy getting "stalled" back there so long on Wave #2 continues to show.  Only last night's 00z runs started to hold it back longer.
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It's possible given the closed ridge over the north pac. As said though there is so much to be sorted out I'll take my fantasy snow and move along

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SimeonNC link said:
I know this sounds like wishcasting but I don't buy the 18z just losing the energy in Montana for a long time like that, suppression at this point yes but the energy just stalling? No. I'm gonna wait and see what the GEFS and the 00z runs do, if the stalling trend repeats then I'l buy it.
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There is a piece of energy that has to come off the North Pacific ocean that eventually forces(kicks) it to move over to Montana this run.  There was not much else around to move it out if I'm remembering the chart correctly.
 
Lol...I'm actually waiting to see if the 18z turns the second wave into a snowcane, since it just wants to park it off the SE coast lol

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Maybe it missed its Mommy and is growing up and just wants to go back home lmao.

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Awww...it did miss its Mommy lol. Put the bottle down Goofy.

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The 2nd wave slows down so much on this GFS run that it actually starts to gain latitude in the Rockies/intermountain west, starts to take on more characteristics of an Alberta Clipper than a canonical southern slider...
 
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