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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

mydoortotheworld link said:
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=80.msg5589#msg5589 date=1483210287]
Why is the gfs par further north and much wetter with precip then the gfs?
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it's from yesterday's 12z run
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Yep. Just noticed that
 
I'm hoping tonight runs will trend north, but slowly mature as we get closer to time. I've seen many storms like this  where it's supress and 3/4 days before storm it starts north trend.
 
bouncycorn link said:
At least with a cutter we get rain and MAYBE some flurries on the backside. I hope this suppression trend doesn't continue.
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I shouldn't be a cutter. The high will keep it from becoming a cutter...not unless the high pushes off to the east coast before the low coming up.

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Brick Tamland link said:
Not really any consistency with the models now, and usually isn't at this range. Main thing is there is a strong signal for a storm next weekend, and the potential is still there. Going to be until at least the middle of next week until they start showing more consistentcy.
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There is pretty good consensus among the models outside of the Canadian. I still wouldn't rule out a shift to the NW yet though.
 
The 12z Para for today should come out around the 18z OP GFS run if I'm not mistaken.  Or maybe it's not running, can't be too sure lol.
 
Curious to see if the EPS will have some good looks, like the gefs.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Not really any consistency with the models now, and usually isn't at this range. Main thing is there is a strong signal for a storm next weekend, and the potential is still there. Going to be until at least the middle of next week until they start showing more consistentcy.
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Bingo! Well said Brick!
 
GEFS probability map of 1" snow
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I'll be curious to see what the eps looks like in a little while. There isn't a clear direction one way or the other. let's remember just 24 hours ago it was doom and gloom and we were all putting our eggs in the second wave basket. The ensembles haven't been rock solid as of late and we all see how the OP runs have been.

Generally over the years we have seen extreme cold presses in the medium range relax as we move into the short range. IF we get a press like the euro and Ukmet to verify it's crush city. But I'm in the camp that believes it will ease over the coming days. Not because I'm a weenie , but just going off years past.

then the question becomes what happens to our energy?  Is it able to consolidate and make the journey across the country ? Or is a strung out mess .

I like where we are sitting at this point but there is alot to consider , alot to worry about and a long ways to go.

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I would be more concerned about suppression vs a cutter at this point folks.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
I would be more concerned about suppression vs a cutter at this point folks.
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Yep, which sucks! At least with a cutter, we get MUCH needed rain. Looks like were in an all or nothing situation.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
I would be more concerned about suppression vs a cutter at this point folks.
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I'm not even worried about the suppression this early. If we see suppression within the 3-2 day window, I'd be more concerned. The reason why I'm not concerned about suppression is because it's too early to say for sure there will be suppression. Another reason is because, I've seen models show suppression but the low actually comes further NW.

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Man what a difference a day makes. Yesterday the models crush us and today they just crush the storm completely. I will say like others have said that I still think this thing could come back north in later runs.
 
From TV Meteorologist Brad Travis in Huntsville:
European model today brings the Arctic air in a little earlier late next week and keeps the moisture to our south so it looks Cold with no snow now for next weekend. Who saw that one coming??
 
whatalife link said:
A lot of suppressed looks on EPS IMO.


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Yeah there are and the ones that hit are further north lol

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Off subject, watching the Bama/Washington game, take the split screen off already. Getting on my nerves, OK back to weather, lol
 
Well, I'll take suppressed over cutter city.  The EPS probabilities > 1" seemed to have ticked down vs 00z also.
 
Storm5 link said:
good lord there are ALOT OF suppressed members . gives the OP support

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Suppression should be a concern IMO.


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Euro is a T-1 event for northern NC late Thursday night...looks like BL problems keep MBY from getting snow.
 
Shawn link said:
Well, I'll take suppressed over cutter city.  The EPS probabilities > 1" seemed to have ticked down vs 00z also.
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Agreed!

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looking over features positioned at day 7 on all the ensembles shows just how far from a decent picture of the outcome we are. 7 days out that isn't all that unusual. Just a reminder that getting emotionally invested in this storm (or lack thereof)at this point is foolish.
 
we can't just dismiss the highest scoring ensembles and say , oh we like where we are at. We have to consider suppression as a real possibility and one that right now is the trend

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The ensemble suites (esp the GEFS) are likely too underdispersive particularly in situations like this, i.e. their spread is too small vs what's warranted for a setup like this, they will often produce a solution that's too similar vs their operational (even though the operational may be an outlier)... This trough won't be fully onshore til the mid portions of this upcoming week, although we'll probably have some new upper air obs ingested into this by Monday. Sit back and enjoy the ride for the next day or two, this is a very long ways from being a done deal (as we saw last night)...
 
Storm5 link said:
we can't just dismiss the highest scoring ensembles and say , oh we like where we are at. We have to consider suppression as a real possibility and one that right now is the trend

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agreed. Like the probabilities from the EPS. Suppression is a threat. A sig winter storm is a threat. Gonna be fun to watch
 
It's going to be fun watching the models try to resolve how much energy gets sheared from the western wave before it really kicks east. We have seen situations where the models often overestimate the amount of shearing and we get a more solid wave heading east and thus we see the NW trend and a more amplified system. Also the wave timing of the northern stream is always questionable at this lead time. All in all it should be fun to watch the models over the next few days to see how they handle these 2 features.
 
Yesterday I legitimately thought this first wave had next to no chance of producing wintry wx here in the Carolinas (esp near/south of I-40), and although I understand the reasons behind this, I still can't believe how much that has changed even since then, one of the craziest flip-flops in the guidance I've personally ever seen. Usually we'll see a trend develop and progressively dampen or amplify this over the course of multiple runs and days, not a unanimous flip in practically every model in just one run, lol... Im normally not one to merely emphasize uncertainty as a main selling point for any system esp inside day 5-7, but it's definitely the case here.
 
I suppose it can't be a bad thing that FFC lowered my high and put in snow chances (albeit slight).

Thursday NightA 20 percent chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
FridayA slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
 
CummingWx link said:
I suppose it can't be a bad thing that FFC lowered my high and put in snow chances (albeit slight).

Thursday NightA 20 percent chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
FridayA slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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I find it interesting they are starting it Thursday night, instead of Friday, as the models seem to be showing. However, the percentage seems realistic at this time, since we are seven days away. A lot can happen in those seven days as a lot has the past four or five days in the models.
 
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