• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 link said:
There are some MASSIVE gefs members on the 00z run

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

What service are you getting those members from so fast?  I am on WXBell and still stuck at day 5 - 1/2 on my end :/
 
Us folks in Birmingham can't buy a snowstorm at least once... I'm sorry everyone I just want my kids to see snow this year
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5240#msg5240 date=1483161309]
There are some MASSIVE gefs members on the 00z run

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

What service are you getting those members from so fast?  I am on WXBell and still stuck at day 5 - 1/2 on my end :/
[/quote]
I'm out to day 7.5 wxbell

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Snowaddict28 link said:
Us folks in Birmingham can't buy a snowstorm at least once... I'm sorry everyone I just want my kids to see snow this year
Click to expand...

So do I. The last couple of seasons have been trash.
 
Snow_Chaser link said:
[quote author=olhausen link=topic=80.msg5221#msg5221 date=1483160186]
This has got to be one of the best runs ever board wide.
11055f308ac07a574a6d990f8f08dbef.png



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I know it can and probably will change a bunch between now and go time, but it's not a great run for those of us near I-20.
[/quote]
I-20 in my neck of the woods may beg to differ.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
so there are hit, complete misses and cutters on the gefs

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Go big or go home.
 
If ice like that verifies, that would be devastating to metro ATL.  We all know from previous years that the cities/towns in the metro are notoriously ill-prepared for winter weather.
 
Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
 
Bsudweather link said:
Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
Click to expand...

Yeah, lot of time to go, but you are right about them losing storms and brining them back again. Just shows how much potential there is with this thing. And we might not know exactly what will happen until it starts happening the way this one has been. All over the place on the runs the last two days.
 
Bsudweather link said:
Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
Click to expand...

Good pattern recognition. But IDK if that's a very good way to look at it. The models have completely changed their h5 projections for the entire runs to something different than any run, even the runs earlier this week. The pattern it shows now is just admirable compared to any it's shown before..

GEFS individual members show everything really, from cutters to 10" snowstorms... but I am just happy about the general h5 projection setup following suite on every single model this run. Crazy to see all of the models shifting at once!
 
the misses on the gefs are crush city . energy gets crushed by the dominating northern stream

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5240#msg5240 date=1483161309]
There are some MASSIVE gefs members on the 00z run

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

What service are you getting those members from so fast?  I am on WXBell and still stuck at day 5 - 1/2 on my end :/
[/quote]
Told ya not to give up yet, Shawn....lol.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
Just got off work and wow...what the h*** happened at H5, this doesn't even look like the same models lol.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
In 2001, NCEP had a note about using the UKMET over the phase happy GFS to make sure it was onto something (gfs phasing southern energy/northern).  I can not be sure exactly what the UKMET has been showing that far out due to my limited maps of it, but others have said it has been the lone model with a colder, more surpressed/slower solution.  Tonight, it came in even colder.

I do not know if the 2001 note about using UKMET over GFS is still valid, but it's interesting nonetheless.  I'd like to also note that the UKMET has been known to be a precursor of the Euro (although Euro was completely different today at 12z)
 
GFS give me at Huntsville a Thunderstorm and 34 next Sat night at 6PM...good grief
192 01/08 00Z  34     34      57      5    0.54  0.05    544    558    3.4 -20.4 1018.1 100 -TSRA 021OVC088 112BKN198 228SCT300  34    33  0.0
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top