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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

So far on the Euro, it appears the high may be too far south vs winter storm analogs day 7 (may be pretty dry run), but let's see what evolves.
 
Looks like anything that tries to get going is going to be squashed in the Gulf.  Regardless, was not a bad run at all.  We can work with this as we get closer.
 
In fact, a low pops up and looks to head to cuba.  i've seen this dance before!  we got our last big snow around here with a "cuba" low.
 
The Euro has been slower lately than GFS. The Euro may not form the low till later on the 7th or shortly after.

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Shawn link said:
In fact, a low pops up and looks to head to cuba.  i've seen this dance before!  we got our last big snow around here with a "cuba" low.
Click to expand...
LOL!


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Suppression city...perfect place to be with the Euro in this time frame

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Yeah, there is more energy that is holding back.. and that low I spoke of going to Cuba I do not think is much importance right now.  It's just really cold and the energy doesn't really come out quickly.
 
Very good dry run we should be able to handle the north trends in the days ahead to keep it frozen! Need it near Cuba not the Carolinas at this stage or it will be a Virginia north storm.
 
Wait, precip breaking out by 192...

Craptastic SV maps over on this side.  will see if it goes anywhere.
 
Shawn link said:
In fact, a low pops up and looks to head to cuba.  i've seen this dance before!  we got our last big snow around here with a "cuba" low.
Click to expand...

February 12, 2010 rings a bell, got 4 Inches of snow.
 
Shawn link said:
Yeah, there is more energy that is holding back.. and that low I spoke of going to Cuba I do not think is much importance right now.  It's just really cold and the energy doesn't really come out quickly.
Click to expand...
Isn't that part of the euros bias to hold energy back?


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg5333#msg5333 date=1483166447]
Yeah, there is more energy that is holding back.. and that low I spoke of going to Cuba I do not think is much importance right now.  It's just really cold and the energy doesn't really come out quickly.
Click to expand...
Isn't that part of the euros bias to hold energy back?


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[/quote]

In the past yeah, but I am not sure if this qualifies with that bias because it's not from the Southwest.  It's holding it back around the NW coast or something like that.
 
Models, especially ECMWF, tend to overadjust in these situations. ECMWF overamps 50/50s and underamps shortwaves... the perfect scenario for a defective ECMWF early on.
 
The high moves to NC. That is typically too far south once it hits the east coast to allow for a major SE winter storm.
 
Okay, there was no "explosion" or anything.. light precip..  192 and onward.  Good run, imo!
 
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