Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

SnowHusky · Dec 31, 2016

This was from a run on the 20th (not from current run!).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

BHS1975 · Dec 31, 2016

NorthGAWinterWx link said:
This was from a run on the 20th (not from current run!).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Typical fantasy snow storm seen it a million times.

Stormlover · Dec 31, 2016

bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5282#msg5282 date=1483162981]
This was from a run on the 20th (not from current run!).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Typical fantasy snow storm seen it a million times.
[/quote]Not so fantasy now, it was on to something.

SnowHusky · Dec 31, 2016

bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5282#msg5282 date=1483162981]
This was from a run on the 20th (not from current run!).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Typical fantasy snow storm seen it a million times.
[/quote]

Yes, true, I like to compare past model runs. That run from 06z on the 20th was over done for the snow, think realistically of where the snow will be and look at the new 0z GFS. And, it's becoming not so fantasy because it's becoming into that 5-7 day window.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Stormlover · Dec 31, 2016

Euro is running!

Cary_Snow95 · Dec 31, 2016

Stormlover link said:
Euro is running!

Deep breathes everyone

tellicowx · Dec 31, 2016

so we shifted from an Apps runner to a Miller A track. The Ensembles have showed this track area numerous times across all models. After going back and looking, the flip and cold press has been there as well, it was what was causing the suppression on past Ensemble members...interesting set up. My thinking still hasn't changed over the last several days...somewhere between an Apps runner and I95 Special.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk

whatalife · Dec 31, 2016

SMH! Here come the possible sleepless nights...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

JLL1973 · Dec 31, 2016

whatalife link said:
SMH! Here come the possible sleepless nights...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep. It starts tonight

Bsudweather · Dec 31, 2016

tellicowx link said:
so we shifted from an Apps runner to a Miller A track. The Ensembles have showed this track area numerous times across all models. After going back and looking, the flip and cold press has been there as well, it was what was causing the suppression on past Ensemble members...interesting set up. My thinking still hasn't changed over the last several days...somewhere between an Apps runner and I95 Special.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk

Well then if it is between those I85 will
Get crushed!

tellicowx · Dec 31, 2016

Here's a better view of the different totals with the GFS track:

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk

Bsudweather · Dec 31, 2016

whatalife link said:
SMH! Here come the possible sleepless nights...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Got to love it when major winter storms start showing back up a week out.

SnowHusky · Dec 31, 2016

Well, I'm staying up for the Euro, I'm on Accuweather pro and the Euro model data don't come in till late. I'll just discuss along with y'all of what y'all post up from the Euro since I won't have access to the new Euro just yet.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Shawn · Dec 31, 2016

Euro about to break our spirit's like Ronda Rousey's. My heavens she gets paid too much!

accu35 · Dec 31, 2016

This storm is full of surprises, and different solutions but yet still a strong storm signal. I say by Monday we should have a better agreement on everything. Great runs tonight so far. I still honestly think the GFS is underestimating the cold

whatalife · Dec 31, 2016

Shawn link said:
Euro about to break our spirit's like Ronda Rousey's. My heavens she gets paid too much!

LOL! It won't break my spirit if I avoid an ice storm...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Stormlover · Dec 31, 2016

Shawn link said:
Euro about to break our spirit's like Ronda Rousey's. My heavens she gets paid too much!

yeah, $3 mil to get her butt kicked in 48 seconds...but back on topic, lol

GaWx · Dec 31, 2016

Tarheel1 link said:
Larry should like this one! GaWx

Regarding neutral negative (NN) ENSO winters since the late 1800's, ATL has been hit by major ZR or IP 18 times vs only 5 times by major SN (so ~3.5:1 ratio of major ZR/IP to SN). For other ENSO combined, major SN leads major ZR/IP 27 to 17. So, a major ZR there and much of the N GA CAD areas is quite believable. NN is the ENSO king for ENSO ZR/IP's there. This has been and continues to be a worry for the N GA CAD areas and likely stretching into SC/NC.

Shawn · Dec 31, 2016

Alrdy looking like diff with energy in west vs 12z. Uh oh.

Edit: yep, starts holding it back there a bit like the 0z gfs showed. see where she goes.

whatalife · Dec 31, 2016

Shawn link said:
Alrdy looking like diff with energy in west vs 12z. Uh oh.

Edit: yep, holding it back there a bit like the 0z gfs showed. see where she goes.

Sure does...Someone may be headed for glory on this run...But we'll see.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

tellicowx · Dec 31, 2016

Huge shift south and east on the initial cutter

12z

00z

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk

Cary_Snow95 · Dec 31, 2016

Does anyone know where the vort maps for the Euro on WB are located?

Shawn · Dec 31, 2016

Cary, use this page (nobody else click this unless you have wxbell premium as it wont work)

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2016123100/conus2/ecmwf_z500_vort_conus2_mouse.php

Cary_Snow95 · Dec 31, 2016

Shawn link said:
Cary, use this page (nobody else click this unless you have wxbell premium as it wont work)

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2016123100/conus2/ecmwf_z500_vort_conus2_mouse.php

Thanks man

SnowHusky · Dec 31, 2016

I'll just have to look at the 500mb from 0z Euro on tropical tidbits. Yup, looking interesting.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Shawn · Dec 31, 2016

GFS like so far. Much stronger cold push.

modelwatcher · Dec 31, 2016

Colder too at hr 114 compared to 12Z run

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

tellicowx · Dec 31, 2016

Initial cutter setup is closer to a 50/50 instead of cutting north over the lakes

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk

Shawn · Dec 31, 2016

Whenever the energy comes out is going to dictate what happens here. The cold will likely exist for many in the SE from what I see.

VegasEagle · Dec 31, 2016

Shawn link said:
Whenever the energy comes out is going to dictate what happens here. The cold will likely exist for many in the SE from what I see.

I agree

Bsudweather · Dec 31, 2016

The Euro is going to be close to 0z GFS and crush somebody.

bouncycorn · Dec 31, 2016

Very cold run thus far on ECMWF... Strong blocking. I like!

Shawn · Dec 31, 2016

Bsudweather link said:
The Euro is going to be close to 0z GFS and crush somebody.

Even if we don't see a crush, its not going to be as bad as 12z me no thinks. Step in the right way!

Flurry · Dec 31, 2016

Potential Weenie run incoming....

Shawn · Dec 31, 2016

I think this run could be snowier for the ice zones if the wave gets kicked out in time. colder, and I would be willing to bet the system (if forms of course) would be a bit further South vs GFS. (just guessing currently).

tellicowx · Dec 31, 2016

The key to the whole evolution imo is the initial system setting up a more of a 50/50 block

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk

SnowHusky · Dec 31, 2016

bouncycorn link said:
Very cold run thus far on ECMWF... Strong blocking. I like!

Heck yeah, strong block I like too. This means amplification of low like 0z GFS.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

Shawn · Dec 31, 2016

tellicowx link said:
The key to the whole evolution imo is the initial system setting up a more of a 50/50 block

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk

Well said. for those wondering the 50/50 low is the system hanging out around 50 lat/lon. it helps force the colder air into our area and keep the se ridge away.

bouncycorn · Dec 31, 2016

This run is even colder than the 00z GFS through 168.. Now we wait for the storm.

whatalife · Dec 31, 2016

Like what I see so far...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk