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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Stormlover link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=80.msg5057#msg5057 date=1483136840]
1/7-1/10 drought buster thread. Change the name
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man, take a break....get away from it for a while..seriously.
[/quote]



Its just 2 model runs today
 
Hopefully 18z will be a step in the right direction.
 
big time ice storm with some snow too in my area....most of this is ice
15782316_1536415223052797_69449796_n.png
 
Stormlover link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=80.msg5067#msg5067 date=1483137536]
Hopefully 18z will be a step in the right direction.
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This is the 18Z now...but the 0Z tonight...expect some good stuff
[/quote] thanks man, I knew it was 18z I was saying I hope it's a good start for improvement. Glad your on board always love your post
 
Good luck with trying to get the first disturbance to trend back south, lol, confidence is starting to increase that it'll end up in the OH valley and lower great Lakes as usual for a NINA, and of course as I mentioned earlier wrt the northern tier snow cover extent, the track of that system now makes more sense, and could potentially help open the door for us down the road if things line up... Even those along the mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor should be weary to hang your hat on the current GEFS/EPS solutions wrt seeing wintry precipitation, they're still in the process of adjusting from the wave taking its sweet time to come out of the west. I think for now only the south-central plains, OH Valley, lower lakes, interior northeast & maybe north-central coastal New England are in relatively decent shape to receive wintry weather from the first system. Although the slowing of the overall trough allots more time for the arctic front to make headway southeastward, the PV lobe over southeastern Canada that was shearing the system apart and suppressing it southward east of the Rockies, now has time to get out of the way, hence the first system now has time to amplify, thus the massive shift northward. There's definitely at least an outside chance of a secondary wave riding along the front, but we need to give this another few days before we start getting excited about a storm... This secondary disturbance still may not form and could consolidate with the first initial piece and lead to a massive storm that goes into the lower lakes, providing us with perhaps maybe some very light, parting wintry wx as the cold air would be chasing whatever moisture remains along the front as the EPS currently shows. Although this isn't the favored solution atm, it's a very legitimate one...
 
The snowfall out west is setting up fine at 132 on 18z GFS. One of the issues is that high over west central IL slips off to the east too fast. This causes some CAD at 138 and 144. At 150, the high pushes off north of Bermuda, warming us up here with southernaly winds. If that high at 132 hangs around there for a bit and then moves along as the low comes along, we would have more snow and some CAD going on. The first low is just way too far north for my liking. The 2nd low at 180 is the right location for the 1st low. The reason why the 2nd low is further south and east is because it's colder to the north and west. I still see the potential of a winter storm setting up IMO.

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That's a huge northwestward shift on the parallel, and it's likely not done correcting towards the OHV/lower lakes... Keep in mind @ 6z it had this first system staying well offshore the SE US with virtually no little precip making it poleward of the I-20 corridor
 
Yeah I have no idea why someone said they wanted a low pressure with this pattern. There simply isn't enough blocking for a low pressure to be wanted with this.

Again your best luck is probably something that isn't that likely, for the first wave to be weakened so the second wave can come in somewhat cleanly. If there's actually cold in place with the second wave, then that's your best luck.

Edit: Nevermind I'm dumb, I have it reversed.
 
Webberweather53 link said:
That's a huge northwestward shift on the parallel, and it's likely not done correcting towards the OHV/lower lakes... Keep in mind @ 6z it had this first system staying well offshore the SE US with virtually no little precip making it poleward of the I-20 corridor
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agree, I'm not sure why people think the first wave is going to come back south .

And color me not impressed with the second wave idea. the ensembles don't support that idea. I'd favor one consolidated piece of energy coming out vs pieces at different times.

Still time no doubt ,but I'm not impressed nor excited at the moment.

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I don't really see this trending any better for us, once storms do this it's very unlikely even at this range that it'll trend back in favor for us. I'll take the rain, congrats to the MA and Ohio Valley for now. If things end up trending better then it'll be a miracle.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5077#msg5077 date=1483139019]
That's a huge northwestward shift on the parallel, and it's likely not done correcting towards the OHV/lower lakes... Keep in mind @ 6z it had this first system staying well offshore the SE US with virtually no little precip making it poleward of the I-20 corridor
Click to expand...
agree, I'm not sure why people think the first wave is going to come back south .

And color me not impressed with the second wave idea. the ensembles don't support that idea. I'd favor one consolidated piece of energy coming out vs pieces at different times.

Still time no doubt ,but I'm not impressed nor excited at the moment.

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[/quote]

Yep, I'm in the exact same boat atm, not impressed with the idea of a secondary wave yet but we have a better chance with that than scoring on the first wave, which really isn't saying much to begin with lol
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5077#msg5077 date=1483139019]
That's a huge northwestward shift on the parallel, and it's likely not done correcting towards the OHV/lower lakes... Keep in mind @ 6z it had this first system staying well offshore the SE US with virtually no little precip making it poleward of the I-20 corridor
Click to expand...
agree, I'm not sure why people think the first wave is going to come back south .

And color me not impressed with the second wave idea. the ensembles don't support that idea. I'd favor one consolidated piece of energy coming out vs pieces at different times.

Still time no doubt ,but I'm not impressed nor excited at the moment.

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[/quote]
Ok...back to the January thread. Only because it's too soon for the February thread.


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vegaseagle link said:
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg5068#msg5068 date=1483137674]
big time ice storm with some snow too in my area....most of this is ice
15782316_1536415223052797_69449796_n.png
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How much ice for N. Alabama?
[/quote]The pivotal ice map is posted above, so some significant ice is possible

by the way, this for me from Huntsville:
Thursday night: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
FridayA 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.
 
We still have a long ways to go, we have about another week till we're in this time period. The models could change 3 days before the event which I've seen happen in the past.

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