Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[GeorgiaGirl]

We still have a long ways to go, we have about another week till we're in this time period. The models could change 3 days before the event which I've seen happen in the past.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

I remember that Matthew wasn't supposed to hit the east coast at all, and then it almost all of a sudden trended to affecting the east coast. If something like that is going to happen, the trends will begin on Sunday and next Monday.

 

[accu35]

Maybe if the 18z GFS is a step up and improve from there, then things will shape up and Ens will hopefully support the idea.I would  love to see support from the Ens  as we get closer to the time frame, but I was little more encourage to see 18z improve from 6z/12z.

 

[JLL1973]

12Z GFS Para...

I'll take that map and call it a winter

 

[Shawn]

As said, the first system is long gone.  The secondary wave is where the best chance is.  Does it materialize?  Possibly not.

 

[accu35]

As said, the first system is long gone.  The secondary wave is where the best chance is.  Does it materialize?  Possibly not.

you never know, lol

 

[NorthGaWinter]

Miracle 00z runs gonna bring the first wave back

 

[Usmeagle2005]

[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=80.msg5032#msg5032 date=1483135887]
[quote author=Usmeagle2005 link=topic=80.msg5026#msg5026 date=1483135014]
I had a feeling, I told my wife about it..... kids of death in my area. ? In Tupelo, Ms

you guys usually get more than we do
[/quote]are you serious? wow....not this stuff again. I'd take where Corinth is in a heartbeat. Same junk every winter. Why would a place a few miles south of you usually get more? smh
[/quote]

It was a total joke, I do not believe in any of that voodoo or whatever you call it... it doesn't matter if I told my wife in august or we started a winter threat thread  for this weekend in august. It's going to do what it's going to do.... y'all  are something serious.

 

[SimeonNC]

We have until Sunday for the storm to work back into our favour, after that it's game over.

 

[Shawn]

I know webber doesn't have a met tag over here, but he's usually right for those who don't know him yet.  He thinks the first wave will continue North and there is a possibility of a second wave maybe kinda sorta.  I'll put my money on that idea.

 

[Brick Tamland]

I remember the Christmas 2010 storm went away and came back here days before it hit. I can't remember if the models had it going north and it came back south,  or vice versa. 

 

[Bsudweather]

I know webber doesn't have a met tag over here, but he's usually right for those who don't know him yet.  He thinks the first wave will continue North and there is a possibility of a second wave maybe kinda sorta.  I'll put my money on that idea.

Yea may have a winter storm, Maybe, Kinda, Sorta.

 

[packfan98]

I remember the Christmas 2010 storm went away and came back here days before it hit. I can't remember if the models had it going north and it came back south,  or vice versa.

It was suppressed and came back north.

 

[JLL1973]

[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg5037#msg5037 date=1483136048]
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=80.msg5032#msg5032 date=1483135887]
[quote author=Usmeagle2005 link=topic=80.msg5026#msg5026 date=1483135014]
I had a feeling, I told my wife about it..... kids of death in my area. ? In Tupelo, Ms

you guys usually get more than we do
[/quote]are you serious? wow....not this stuff again. I'd take where Corinth is in a heartbeat. Same junk every winter. Why would a place a few miles south of you usually get more? smh
[/quote]

It was a total joke, I do not believe in any of that voodoo or whatever you call it... it doesn't matter if I told my wife in august or we started a winter threat thread  for this weekend in august. It's going to do what it's going to do.... y'all  are something serious.
[/quote]
Well you must not go to Corinth much. In the last few years we had had very little snow. It usually goes north or south of us. I know for a fact tupelo had gotten several snows while we had nothing. I know because I've drove the 50 miles and saw it

 

[SnowHusky]

Just some more thoughts, if the first wave comes further south like what I've been thinking. There still would be overrunning down through WV, KY, central and western TN, NW MS and down through eastern AR because it will be colder due to more of a southern track (we've seen this on past runs). With the track of the first wave on the 18z, it's too far north, there would not be any overrunning. The Precip that overruns will be in the form of ZR/IP depending on elevation, thickness values, wetbulb temp and other factors, there would even be some snow...if that first wave tracks little further south. After the first wave it gets colder (note: I've also been mentioning that) and then the 2nd wave comes up little further south and east than the first wave. Plus, we have a high coming in behind the 2nd wave which would help reinforcing the cold and would allow of a more southern track than the 1st wave. We still have the potential of a winter threat from the 2nd wave...and the 2nd wave has a higher potential for winter weather than the 1st wave. There would be more snow with the 2nd wave (if the first wave has any winter wx) cause the 850mb gets colder, the 0c line moves further south and east and the 2m temp starts to get colder. The NAO does start to trend, to neutral around the first wave and then the NAO starts to trend negative again around when the 2nd wave comes up which would mean that the 2nd wave could turn out to be an east coast low after coming up from the southeast. The 12z Euro from today does support that idea, that the 2nd wave does become a eastern coastal low.

 

[Stormlover]

18Z GFS gives Huntsville 1.6 inches of snow with temps of 28-31 on Thursday night alone, before any second wave
170106/0000Z 168  02007KT  31.0F  SNOW  15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045  15:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170106/0300Z 171  02007KT  30.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050  11:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
170106/0600Z 174  01007KT  29.4F  SNOW  10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028  10:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
170106/0900Z 177  01007KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029  10:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0

 

[SnowHusky]

18Z GFS gives Huntsville 1.6 inches of snow with temps of 28-31 on Thursday night alone, before any second wave
170106/0000Z 168  02007KT  31.0F  SNOW  15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045  15:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170106/0300Z 171  02007KT  30.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050  11:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
170106/0600Z 174  01007KT  29.4F  SNOW  10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028  10:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0
170106/0900Z 177  01007KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029  10:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0

Again, it depends on how far south the  first wave will be. If it's further south, Huntsville will be on that colder edge. Most likely the model is picking up that it's actually IP accumulations. I have no idea where the snow is coming from. The 850mb temps won't be cold enough to support snowfall...there could be a narrow band of snow along the colder edge but I would think that the precip would be mostly IP...depends on how deep the cold layer will be.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

 

[Stormlover]

[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg5109#msg5109 date=1483150890]
18Z GFS gives Huntsville 1.6 inches of snow with temps of 28-31 on Thursday night alone, before any second wave
170106/0000Z 168  02007KT  31.0F  SNOW  15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045  15:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170106/0300Z 171  02007KT  30.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050  11:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100  0|  0
170106/0600Z 174  01007KT  29.4F  SNOW  10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028  10:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100  0|  0
170106/0900Z 177  01007KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029  10:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100  0|  0

Again, it depends on how far south the  first wave will be. If it's further south, Huntsville will be on that colder edge. Most likely the model is picking up that it's actually IP accumulations. I have no idea where the snow is coming from. The 850mb temps won't be cold enough to support snowfall...there could be a narrow band of snow along the colder edge but I would think that the precip would be mostly IP...depends on how deep the cold layer will be.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote],That's incorrect.(striked through that part) This takes the 850's into account and says the chance for snow as the precip is 100% at those times(in bold)
And I went and checked the 850's on weatherbell and they are all below freezing from the time this starts (0Z Thur night) through the period, they come crashing in from the NW and continue to fall).

 

[SnowHusky]

[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5110#msg5110 date=1483151381]
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg5109#msg5109 date=1483150890]
18Z GFS gives Huntsville 1.6 inches of snow with temps of 28-31 on Thursday night alone, before any second wave
170106/0000Z 168  02007KT  31.0F  SNOW  15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045  15:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170106/0300Z 171  02007KT  30.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050  11:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100  0|  0
170106/0600Z 174  01007KT  29.4F  SNOW  10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028  10:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100  0|  0
170106/0900Z 177  01007KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029  10:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100  0|  0

Again, it depends on how far south the  first wave will be. If it's further south, Huntsville will be on that colder edge. Most likely the model is picking up that it's actually IP accumulations. I have no idea where the snow is coming from. The 850mb temps won't be cold enough to support snowfall...there could be a narrow band of snow along the colder edge but I would think that the precip would be mostly IP...depends on how deep the cold layer will be.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote],That's incorrect.(striked through that part) This takes the 850's into account and says the chance for snow as the precip is 100% at those times(in bold)
And I went and checked the 850's on weatherbell and they are all below freezing from the time this starts (0Z Thur night) through the period, they come crashing in from the NW and continue to fall).
[/quote]
Are you sure your looking at the right model? 18z GFS 850 temps are 5c north of Birmingham at 0z Thur and all the way till 18z Thur. The 850 temps warm to 10c even for Huntsville at 18z Thur. 850 temps start crashing over Hunstville Fri evening on that run.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk

 

[Stormlover]

[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg5112#msg5112 date=1483152134]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5110#msg5110 date=1483151381]
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg5109#msg5109 date=1483150890]
18Z GFS gives Huntsville 1.6 inches of snow with temps of 28-31 on Thursday night alone, before any second wave
170106/0000Z 168  02007KT  31.0F  SNOW  15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045  15:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170106/0300Z 171  02007KT  30.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050  11:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100  0|  0
170106/0600Z 174  01007KT  29.4F  SNOW  10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028  10:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100  0|  0
170106/0900Z 177  01007KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029  10:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100  0|  0

Again, it depends on how far south the  first wave will be. If it's further south, Huntsville will be on that colder edge. Most likely the model is picking up that it's actually IP accumulations. I have no idea where the snow is coming from. The 850mb temps won't be cold enough to support snowfall...there could be a narrow band of snow along the colder edge but I would think that the precip would be mostly IP...depends on how deep the cold layer will be.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote],That's incorrect.(striked through that part) This takes the 850's into account and says the chance for snow as the precip is 100% at those times(in bold)
And I went and checked the 850's on weatherbell and they are all below freezing from the time this starts (0Z Thur night) through the period, they come crashing in from the NW and continue to fall).
[/quote]
Are you sure your looking at the right model? 18z GFS 850 temps are 5c north of Birmingham at 0z Thur and all the way till 18z Thur. The 850 temps warm to 10c even for Huntsville at 18z Thur. 850 temps start crashing over Hunstville Fri evening on that run.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote] Birmingham has nothing to do with it, and 18Z Thur has nothing to do with it. I'm not wasting any more time on someone that clearly doesn't know what he's talking about. When you find the 850's for 0Z Friday(Thur night) and into Friday, come back and talk. Do you even now how to read the times on the GFS output I posted? : ??? here's a hint, 0Z Jan 6 is 6PM Central Thur night...THAT'S ABOUT WHEN  THE SNOW STARTS on the output I posted. Jeez...

 

[Usmeagle2005]

[quote author=Usmeagle2005 link=topic=80.msg5098#msg5098 date=1483143387]
[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg5037#msg5037 date=1483136048]
[quote author=JLL1973 link=topic=80.msg5032#msg5032 date=1483135887]
[quote author=Usmeagle2005 link=topic=80.msg5026#msg5026 date=1483135014]
I had a feeling, I told my wife about it..... kids of death in my area. ? In Tupelo, Ms

you guys usually get more than we do
[/quote]are you serious? wow....not this stuff again. I'd take where Corinth is in a heartbeat. Same junk every winter. Why would a place a few miles south of you usually get more? smh
[/quote] 


It was a total joke, I do not believe in any of that voodoo or whatever you call it... it doesn't matter if I told my wife in august or we started a winter threat thread  for this weekend in august. It's going to do what it's going to do.... y'all  are something serious.
[/quote]
Well you must not go to Corinth much. In the last few years we had had very little snow. It usually goes north or south of us. I know for a fact tupelo had gotten several snows while we had nothing. I know because I've drove the 50 miles and saw it
[/quote]
Your right, we have been in the right spot the last few years... it's like a cycle.... mid to late 90's it was always down near Jackson or up just north of you guys. Now last year it snowed everywhere but here in January. Ok sorry back to this threat.