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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

So far on the Euro, it appears the high may be too far south vs winter storm analogs day 7 (may be pretty dry run), but let's see what evolves.
 
Starting to worry that a storm doesn't form... Out to 168 with no glimpse of a storm.
 
Looks like anything that tries to get going is going to be squashed in the Gulf.  Regardless, was not a bad run at all.  We can work with this as we get closer.
 
In fact, a low pops up and looks to head to cuba.  i've seen this dance before!  we got our last big snow around here with a "cuba" low.
 
The Euro has been slower lately than GFS. The Euro may not form the low till later on the 7th or shortly after.

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Shawn link said:
In fact, a low pops up and looks to head to cuba.  i've seen this dance before!  we got our last big snow around here with a "cuba" low.
Click to expand...
LOL!


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Suppression city...perfect place to be with the Euro in this time frame

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Yeah, there is more energy that is holding back.. and that low I spoke of going to Cuba I do not think is much importance right now.  It's just really cold and the energy doesn't really come out quickly.
 
Very good dry run we should be able to handle the north trends in the days ahead to keep it frozen! Need it near Cuba not the Carolinas at this stage or it will be a Virginia north storm.
 
Wait, precip breaking out by 192...

Craptastic SV maps over on this side.  will see if it goes anywhere.
 
Shawn link said:
In fact, a low pops up and looks to head to cuba.  i've seen this dance before!  we got our last big snow around here with a "cuba" low.
Click to expand...

February 12, 2010 rings a bell, got 4 Inches of snow.
 
Shawn link said:
Yeah, there is more energy that is holding back.. and that low I spoke of going to Cuba I do not think is much importance right now.  It's just really cold and the energy doesn't really come out quickly.
Click to expand...
Isn't that part of the euros bias to hold energy back?


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg5333#msg5333 date=1483166447]
Yeah, there is more energy that is holding back.. and that low I spoke of going to Cuba I do not think is much importance right now.  It's just really cold and the energy doesn't really come out quickly.
Click to expand...
Isn't that part of the euros bias to hold energy back?


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[/quote]

In the past yeah, but I am not sure if this qualifies with that bias because it's not from the Southwest.  It's holding it back around the NW coast or something like that.
 
Models, especially ECMWF, tend to overadjust in these situations. ECMWF overamps 50/50s and underamps shortwaves... the perfect scenario for a defective ECMWF early on.
 
The high moves to NC. That is typically too far south once it hits the east coast to allow for a major SE winter storm.
 
Okay, there was no "explosion" or anything.. light precip..  192 and onward.  Good run, imo!
 
Energy is held way back..until it's too late

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OK Folks, get some sleep. 06z GFS/GEFS and 12z suites are right around the corner! ;D
 
I know its one set of runs, but I wonder what is being sampled different/sampled incorrectly that had most of the 12z guidance throw the idea away with the energy back there.  These 00z runs were huge changes.  GFS, CMC, Euro.
 
Shawn link said:
I know its one set of runs, but I wonder what is being sampled different/sampled incorrectly that had most of the 12z guidance throw the idea away.  These 00z runs were huge changes.  GFS, CMC, Euro.
Click to expand...
All the guidance at 00z moves the initial cutter further East and stronger....slows the flow and allows the high to build in quicker

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg5345#msg5345 date=1483166745]
I know its one set of runs, but I wonder what is being sampled different/sampled incorrectly that had most of the 12z guidance throw the idea away.  These 00z runs were huge changes.  GFS, CMC, Euro.
Click to expand...
All the guidance at 00z moves the initial cutter further East and stronger....slows the flow and allows the high to build in quicker

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[/quote]

Oh so even the energy slowing down/getting "stuck" like that is the result of the 50/50 idea?
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=80.msg5346#msg5346 date=1483166907]
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg5345#msg5345 date=1483166745]
I know its one set of runs, but I wonder what is being sampled different/sampled incorrectly that had most of the 12z guidance throw the idea away.  These 00z runs were huge changes.  GFS, CMC, Euro.
Click to expand...
All the guidance at 00z moves the initial cutter further East and stronger....slows the flow and allows the high to build in quicker

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[/quote]

Oh so even the energy slowing down/getting "stuck" like that is the result of the 50/50 idea?
[/quote]
It's one of the pieces imo

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We go from a cutter to a massive winter storm , to a very suppressed run. This is why I love weather
 
I would like to note one more time to the guests, if this threat starts to materialize into a legit event, we are going to have to disable guest browsing of the forum.  Don't worry, you won't be locked out of the site as a whole, but you will need to register to read posts. 

We aren't doing it to be mean or anything, but we have limited server resources right now with the website being newer.  Therefore, we want our members to be able to access the site to the best of our ability.
 
The AO trends negative around the event time period...that's good news. It may drop to -2 to -3 by the time period of the event...possibly even lower.

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If you go back and run thru the 12z Euro and compare it to the 00z, you can see how big of a role the initial cutter plays. At 12z the low is weaker and further north as it retrograde back across Canada, while the response on the West is a slower press of the High diving SE allowing pieces of energy to undercut it. On the 00z, it's further south and stronger, while the West responds by building the high quicker SE, blocking and holding the energy along the West coast.

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Those 30-50% odds from the WPC are going to continue to fill in for NC pretty soon. Won't be long before the local NWS has to respond to those in their HWO's early this week, maybe as early as Monday.
 
These are some of the most insane run-to-run swings I've seen in the guidance in quite some time, even in the ensemble suites for a system that's now (supposedly) 5-6 days out for those east of the rockies (referencing the first wave)... Looks like everything slows down so much that it gives more time for the secondary wave to come out & there's not even much of an initial wave at all, majority of the energy consolidates into the secondary disturbance which comes out ~day 8... The northern US snow cover extent was much improved, esp over PA, OH, IN, & IL ahead of this secondary disturbance since the initial cutter moving thru is now being progged further south. Definitely a step in the right direction. Ugh, what a forecasting headache this has been
 
Webberweather53 link said:
These are some of the most insane run-to-run swings I've seen in the guidance in quite some time, even in the ensemble suites for a system that's now (supposedly) 5-6 days out for those east of the rockies (referencing the first wave)... Looks like everything slows down so much that it gives more time for the secondary wave to come out & there's not even much of an initial wave at all, majority of the energy consolidates into the secondary disturbance which comes out ~day 8... The northern US snow cover extent was much improved, esp over PA, OH, IN, & IL ahead of this secondary disturbance since the initial cutter moving thru is now being progged further south. Definitely a step in the right direction. Ugh, what a forecasting headache this has been
Click to expand...
Yeah this is wild, don't remember a swing like this especially with all models drastically swinging as you said. Ridge over Texas at 00z 1/8 is interesting how do you figure this helps or hurts us? It has shown up for the first time this evening on the GFS GEFS CMC and Euro. May help the shortwave dig but could it eventually overwhelm the pattern? Scratching my head here.


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Webberweather53 link said:
These are some of the most insane run-to-run swings I've seen in the guidance in quite some time, even in the ensemble suites for a system that's now (supposedly) 5-6 days out for those east of the rockies (referencing the first wave)... Looks like everything slows down so much that it gives more time for the secondary wave to come out & there's not even much of an initial wave at all, majority of the energy consolidates into the secondary disturbance which comes out ~day 8... The northern US snow cover extent was much improved, esp over PA, OH, IN, & IL ahead of this secondary disturbance since the initial cutter moving thru is now being progged further south. Definitely a step in the right direction. Ugh, what a forecasting headache this has been
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is one large headache lol...definitely one of the biggest swings I have seen in a long time regarding the initial wave (Cutter). That system plays a large role in the evolution, and we can't even get a good agreement on that lol

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Jon link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5358#msg5358 date=1483171400]
These are some of the most insane run-to-run swings I've seen in the guidance in quite some time, even in the ensemble suites for a system that's now (supposedly) 5-6 days out for those east of the rockies (referencing the first wave)... Looks like everything slows down so much that it gives more time for the secondary wave to come out & there's not even much of an initial wave at all, majority of the energy consolidates into the secondary disturbance which comes out ~day 8... The northern US snow cover extent was much improved, esp over PA, OH, IN, & IL ahead of this secondary disturbance since the initial cutter moving thru is now being progged further south. Definitely a step in the right direction. Ugh, what a forecasting headache this has been
Click to expand...
Yeah this is wild, don't remember a swing like this especially with all models drastically swinging as you said. Ridge over Texas at 00z 1/8 is interesting how do you figure this helps or hurts us? It has shown up for the first time this evening on the GFS GEFS CMC and Euro. May help the shortwave dig but could it eventually overwhelm the pattern? Scratching my head here.


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[/quote]

I definitely think this scenario helps our chances w/ a secondary wave, the entire pattern in the Pacific-North American sector slowed down in a big way on the GFS, starting with the trough over the west coast, this allows the wavelengths to sharpen/amplify & allots more time for the heights to build in the wake of the secondary shortwave, hence the ridge over TX and the southern Rockies. If this slowing trend continued we'd probably end up with an even stronger cut-off, bowling ball ULL plowing somewhere thru the southern tier, and of course if that panned out then all bets would be really off because we know how well the models handle bowling ball ULLs  :D
 
Hello one and all.. I heard there may be some winter weather soon, so here's hoping we'll get something more than a dusting this coming year.

(For anyone wondering I am the Shinrin from the talk weather forum, sad to see it down)
 
EPS supports the OP...this is gonna be a long week lol.

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tellicowx link said:
EPS supports the OP...this is gonna be a long week lol.

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Click to expand...
I'm up lol. Map please
 
accu35 link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=80.msg5363#msg5363 date=1483173756]
EPS supports the OP...this is gonna be a long week lol.

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Click to expand...
I'm up lol. Map please
[/quote]
Lol...that is the map, nothing...jk. It supports the major flip with the rest of the modeling world. The pattern slows way down, and the few members that do have a system are pushed back to Day 9/10 or later.

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=80.msg5364#msg5364 date=1483173856]
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=80.msg5363#msg5363 date=1483173756]
EPS supports the OP...this is gonna be a long week lol.

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Click to expand...
I'm up lol. Map please
[/quote]
Lol...that is the map, nothing...jk. It supports the major flip with the rest of the modeling world. The pattern slows way down, and the few members that do have a system are pushed back to Day 9/10 or later.

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[/quote] I'm at work so I can't pull anything. I think I'll go with GFS solution for now. Who knows anything can happen at this point
 
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