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Snowaddict28
Guest
Us folks in Birmingham can't buy a snowstorm at least once... I'm sorry everyone I just want my kids to see snow this year
Storm5
Member
Shawn link said:
What service are you getting those members from so fast? I am on WXBell and still stuck at day 5 - 1/2 on my end :/
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I'm out to day 7.5 wxbell
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BHS1975
Member
The UKMET has been all over this one. I wonder if SD is setting up his drum set yet.
Storm5
Member
there also a good number that are NW of the OP
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BHS1975
Member
Snowaddict28 link said:
So do I. The last couple of seasons have been trash.
Storm5
Member
so there are hit, complete misses and cutters on the gefs
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ATLwxfan
Member
I know it can and probably will change a bunch between now and go time, but it's not a great run for those of us near I-20.Snow_Chaser link said:[quote author=olhausen link=topic=80.msg5221#msg5221 date=1483160186]
This has got to be one of the best runs ever board wide.
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I-20 in my neck of the woods may beg to differ.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Storm5 link said:
Go big or go home.
Roswellian
Member
If ice like that verifies, that would be devastating to metro ATL. We all know from previous years that the cities/towns in the metro are notoriously ill-prepared for winter weather.
Bsudweather
Member
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Usually when there's a big storm models will lose it and show something crazy only to bring it back. And most of time but not all time when they come back, we end up with a storm. Were starting to get into that window where things are getting serious now. Just a few days ago the GFS was showing pretty much this same setup with enormous totals. Then it lost it, and now its back with the enormous totals again. I would not be surprised at all now to see other models start following suite to this.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Bsudweather link said:
Yeah, lot of time to go, but you are right about them losing storms and brining them back again. Just shows how much potential there is with this thing. And we might not know exactly what will happen until it starts happening the way this one has been. All over the place on the runs the last two days.
Bsudweather link said:
Good pattern recognition. But IDK if that's a very good way to look at it. The models have completely changed their h5 projections for the entire runs to something different than any run, even the runs earlier this week. The pattern it shows now is just admirable compared to any it's shown before..
GEFS individual members show everything really, from cutters to 10" snowstorms... but I am just happy about the general h5 projection setup following suite on every single model this run. Crazy to see all of the models shifting at once!
Storm5
Member
the misses on the gefs are crush city . energy gets crushed by the dominating northern stream
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BHS1975
Member
So this must be our mega weenie run of the week.
In 2001, NCEP had a note about using the UKMET over the phase happy GFS to make sure it was onto something (gfs phasing southern energy/northern). I can not be sure exactly what the UKMET has been showing that far out due to my limited maps of it, but others have said it has been the lone model with a colder, more surpressed/slower solution. Tonight, it came in even colder.
I do not know if the 2001 note about using UKMET over GFS is still valid, but it's interesting nonetheless. I'd like to also note that the UKMET has been known to be a precursor of the Euro (although Euro was completely different today at 12z)
I do not know if the 2001 note about using UKMET over GFS is still valid, but it's interesting nonetheless. I'd like to also note that the UKMET has been known to be a precursor of the Euro (although Euro was completely different today at 12z)
Please God anything but an ice storm. Being without power for days is not my idea of fun.
Stormlover
Member
GFS give me at Huntsville a Thunderstorm and 34 next Sat night at 6PM...good grief
192 01/08 00Z 34 34 57 5 0.54 0.05 544 558 3.4 -20.4 1018.1 100 -TSRA 021OVC088 112BKN198 228SCT300 34 33 0.0
192 01/08 00Z 34 34 57 5 0.54 0.05 544 558 3.4 -20.4 1018.1 100 -TSRA 021OVC088 112BKN198 228SCT300 34 33 0.0
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Brick Tamland
Guest
That's a mean looking mean.
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days.Bsudweather link said:
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VegasEagle
Member
So, so, close! Dang it! :'(Stormlover link said:
Cary_Snow95
Member
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days.NorthGAWinterWx link said:
And the GFS had this solution on the 12z Wednesday..... Look familiar?
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Complete misses to a couple of bigood hits.
Shawn link said:Crap map, no inbetween that show much.. but here is tonight's UKMET (notice the low off the NC coast not nearly as strong as GFS OP one would guess with it):
That's only hr 144. The system GFS is showing is like 180hr.
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days.Cary_Snow95 link said:
And the GFS had this solution on the 12z Wednesday..... Look familiar?
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No it's a totally different setup shown now.
Bsudweather
Member
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Gulf lows and Gulf coastal lows can produce some strong instability.NorthGAWinterWx link said:
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And that also can rob moisture from winter storms as well.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
UKMET has probably been the most consistent with its runs the last couple of days, too.
bouncycorn link said:[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg5265#msg5265 date=1483162409]
Crap map, no inbetween that show much.. but here is tonight's UKMET (notice the low off the NC coast not nearly as strong as GFS OP one would guess with it):
That's only hr 144. The system GFS is showing is like 180hr.
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Thanks, getting my zulu confused as usual.
6 inches of snow for North GA ? I'm sure a lot of that is ice.Brick Tamland link said:That's a mean looking mean.
Storm5
Member
I'd be surprised if anything survived that look. Looks cold and northern stream dominateShawn link said:Crap map, no inbetween that show much.. but here is tonight's UKMET (notice the low off the NC coast not nearly as strong as GFS OP one would guess with it):
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Bsudweather link said:
There was already a big winter storm shown in the southeast during this time period about 2 and a half days ago on the models. It was lost after two runs and now this is that winter storm threat returning to the models.
Some areas might not get much, but usually its good news if a wintry solution comes back in the southeast.
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days.bouncycorn link said:
And the GFS had this solution on the 12z Wednesday..... Look familiar?
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No it's a totally different setup shown now.
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I should have said, the placement of the low is similar, not excact setup.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
The GFS showed something similar before Christmas on one of it's runs and then lost it of course. Seems that sometimes the GFS goes back to what it originally showed week(s) later. The more models come on board with this setup and if they stay that way, we'll be looking at a major winter storm in the coming days.NorthGAWinterWx link said:
And the GFS had this solution on the 12z Wednesday..... Look familiar?
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No it's a totally different setup shown now.
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I should have said, the placement of the low is similar, not excact setup.
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Yeah thats all I meant by it
RollTide18
Member
Brick Tamland link said:Complete misses to a couple of bigood hits.
5/17 show snow/ice for my area