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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

For my fellow GA friends, at 204 hours the 12Z EURO does have the system ending with a Trace - 1" across NGA. All is not lost (yet), still a chance of getting something frozen. We are talking about next Saturday night and we have a long way to go.

IMG_0206_zpsrise8cdx.png
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
Im surprised anyone was allowed to start a thread for an event over 5 days away. Stupid.
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Hey man, that was un-called for.... We will refrain from "name-calling".
 
Yeah, the 12Z EPS did not trend well. The 12Z EURO op was defitnley an outlier run. Still time to see more changes that's for sure, but as of now the trends are not that great.
 
for those that are wondering the eps does NOT support the OPS idea of a second wave.

Horrible horrible trends 6-7 days out

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EPS mean snowfall map is not very good at all.  Very weak signal compared to previous runs.  TN fares better than to the South and East though.
 
Best thing to do is to sit back and see if these trends continue over the next couple of days. No one jump from the cliff yet. :)
 
I guess we will be back to chasing that mid-January pattern change! That was fun!
 
Looking over the 12z Euro, it's to my liking, kind of. The 12z Euro has the consolidated low poping up 192-198. I think the consolidated low will pop up further west and south. The track of the low from 12z Euro is about right, it needs to be further south and east to get a longer period of snow before the back edge of low. Nice thickness values behind low, that's more than cold enough at 850mb for snow support.

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Storm5, could u post the eps snow mean for the midsouth and control please? I live in arkansas now
 
OK,,18z about to run, let's keep the excitement down lol. Should we trend for the cutter/NW trend or prepare for glory
 
RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg5004#msg5004 date=1483131268]
I guess we will be back to chasing that mid-January pattern change! That was fun!
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No, threat is not over.

I'm with you, its not over.
[/quote]
 
Even if we do not score with wintry precip next weekend, the 12Z EURO has highs next Sunday at or below 32F for a lot of us. Looking very cold as of now.

IMG_0211_zpsldpuxyf6.png
 
accu35 link said:
OK,,18z about to run, let's keep the excitement down lol. Should we trend for the cutter/NW trend or prepare for glory
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We don't need a cutter, I don't think the consolidated low will be a cutter, cause it will be in the lower latitudes and the cold air will keep it from becoming a cutter with this setup. No, NW trend, this would allow warmer air. I'm hoping to see that consolidated low forming further west and south than the 12z GFS cause that will allow colder air to get in here.

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