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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 link said:
let's remember it's one op run and a MASSIVE change

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Sadly I pray this one is wrong. I want no part of this...


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This low has strong amplification, that's why there is high totals. The low strengthens  rapidly...1006mb at 198. A lot of that precip will be IP as well.

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Shawn link said:
Through 204 - likely icing in areas still:

204ice.png
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Here is the thing....I know you know this, but thats *at least for now* is my biggest worry here...Why??  Well you have a pretty nice and cold airmass out ahead of this....and the high is a pretty descent one and instead of sliding off the coast its sliding up the app chain...that is nearly IDEAL for keeping that low level cold in there.
 
Canadian doing the same exact thing with the pacific coast trough and looks similar going forward....
 
Storm5 link said:
all these georgia folks that were complaining sure are awake tonight

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Guilty. I'm like this with my sports teams too.
 
Larry should like this one! GaWx
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5192#msg5192 date=1483159298]
let's remember it's one op run and a MASSIVE change

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Sadly I pray this one is wrong. I want no part of this...


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[/quote]

Around Lake Murray in Lexington, 1.46 ZR is being printed out with only around 03.-half an inch of snow :(
 
I think this **POTENTIAL** storm has some pretty descent chances...why???  We know there is going to be cold air around...like the cold shot before this system is a pretty nice one...Snow cover to our NW...then we have the high that builds in...then moves over the apps and then up the apps...NOT out to sea...that is going to be CRUCIAL.....if it slides up the apps into the interior NE...I honestly say game on if there is a storm!!
 
Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=Shawn link=topic=80.msg5197#msg5197 date=1483159430]
Through 204 - likely icing in areas still:
Click to expand...

Here is the thing....I know you know this, but thats *at least for now* is my biggest worry here...Why??  Well you have a pretty nice and cold airmass out ahead of this....and the high is a pretty descent one and instead of sliding off the coast its sliding up the app chain...that is nearly IDEAL for keeping that low level cold in there.
[/quote]

Well thankfully if this were to pan out, the low locations will greatly effect things and we might can end up with sleet heh.  But yeah, everytime I see these big ice events on modeling, I freak out a bit.  Entire yard is pine trees.
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg5201#msg5201 date=1483159507]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5192#msg5192 date=1483159298]
let's remember it's one op run and a MASSIVE change

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Click to expand...
Sadly I pray this one is wrong. I want no part of this...


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[/quote]

Around Lake Murray in Lexington, 1.46 ZR is being printed out with only around 03.-half an inch of snow :(
[/quote]
Well still time for things to change...


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Plus this will change a million times for sure...lets see what the doc has to say for sure.
 
OK so... Both the GFS and Canadian show the pacific trough balling around 104 hrs which is a HUGE change from all earleir packages. This change, if true, would force a ridge in the west and likely a parade of high pressures/blocking in the east. If this trend/change holds, chances of a wintery event around the aforementioned time frame increase tremendously.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
I think this **POTENTIAL** storm has some pretty descent chances...why???  We know there is going to be cold air around...like the cold shot before this system is a pretty nice one...Snow cover to our NW...then we have the high that builds in...then moves over the apps and then up the apps...NOT out to sea...that is going to be CRUCIAL.....if it slides up the apps into the interior NE...I honestly say game on if there is a storm!!
Click to expand...


Are you going to do a facebook video about this potential storm ?
 
Shawn link said:
Through 204 - likely icing in areas still:

204ice.png
Click to expand...
Holy cow! That's the problem with big snowstorms in the southeast... someone on the southern extent will get the dreaded freezing rain. Let's hope if this does come to fruition, it's cold enough for mostly sleet in those areas. You can definitely see the CAD signature with that map. I want to see the ensembles before getting too caught up in the hype.
 
whatalife link said:
Here is WxBell's snow map much of this ice for GA and SC


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51b205f8cf82ed682c88d749a5e0c96c.jpg
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Can someone help me out;What do the snow totals look like for southwestern Fulton County I can't tell where the cutoff from blue and gray for the Georgia map.
 
Louis link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg5208#msg5208 date=1483159764]
Here is WxBell's snow map much of this ice for GA and SC


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51b205f8cf82ed682c88d749a5e0c96c.jpg
Click to expand...

Can someone help me out;What do the snow totals look like for southwestern Fulton County I can't tell where the cutoff from blue and gray for the Georgia map.
[/quote] very little snow, mostly ice
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Told you. Bringing the magic.
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Yes sir, I brought magic as well...I said there would be a Gulf low or a Gulf coastal low for days and my prediction came true on this run.

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5224#msg5224 date=1483160293]
Told you. Bringing the magic.
Click to expand...
Yes sir, I brought magic as well...I said there would be a Gulf low or a Gulf coastal low for days and my prediction came true on this run.

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[/quote]
we get for the 5th time

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Louis link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg5208#msg5208 date=1483159764]
Here is WxBell's snow map much of this ice for GA and SC


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51b205f8cf82ed682c88d749a5e0c96c.jpg
Click to expand...

Can someone help me out;What do the snow totals look like for southwestern Fulton County I can't tell where the cutoff from blue and gray for the Georgia map.
[/quote]YOu can't worry about your backyard...this thing will change over and over anyway between now and then, it's the general idea to grasp.
 
Louis link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg5208#msg5208 date=1483159764]
Here is WxBell's snow map much of this ice for GA and SC


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51b205f8cf82ed682c88d749a5e0c96c.jpg
Click to expand...

Can someone help me out;What do the snow totals look like for southwestern Fulton County I can't tell where the cutoff from blue and gray for the Georgia map.
[/quote]
Until the day of the event no one knows for sure.
 
Holy smokes if that run is the idea of what would be a successful winter storm in the southeast with this system. That doesn't look as bad of an ice storm as February 2014 for my locale, but it's pretty bad and crippling not too far to the northeast of me.

And again, I'm away from paying attention to the weather, this time watching football, last time out with a friend, and a mic drop model run happened.

I've said that if a winter storm is going to happen here, the models always bring back the idea of it eventually, so we'll see where she goes with this...
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg5228#msg5228 date=1483160479]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg5224#msg5224 date=1483160293]
Told you. Bringing the magic.
Click to expand...
Yes sir, I brought magic as well...I said there would be a Gulf low or a Gulf coastal low for days and my prediction came true on this run.

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[/quote]
we get for the 5th time

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[/quote]
Sorry, I just feel the rush.

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olhausen link said:
This has got to be one of the best runs ever board wide.
11055f308ac07a574a6d990f8f08dbef.png



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I know it can and probably will change a bunch between now and go time, but it's not a great run for those of us near I-20.
 
The big change in the run is that the longwave trough doesn't phase with the pacific shortwave, so it sticks around in the pacific while a ridge builds over the mtns. GEFS showing the change, Canadian, GFS... must be a feedback change in the 00z suite.
 
Well from what I understand, the UKMET has the big cold press too/slower wave so you may can add that model also which is wonderful with 500mb imo.
 
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